$2 NLHE Full Ring: Flopped top pair and flush draw against an All in shove

Hey guys

I am a new $2 NLHE player and am currently below break even. I am doing a review of some of my hands and will post the details here for your help and analysis.

This is the first of the lot:

So the player UTG opens with a 3.5x raise which he normally does when he plays a hand. I am more of a min raiser (2.5x). Action all fold, I have position and suited cards so I decided to peek the flop. Flop is a nice TPOK but also a juicy FD.

Villian cbets little more than pot and I am not sure how to interpret it. Is it miss and cbet or value? Meanwhile I have a good hand and 9 outs to a monster so I re-raise/semi bluff to define my hand (so I've read ).

Now here is the tricky part (and a very common scenario I'm sure), Villian shoves All in with his 118 BBs

So what should I do here? Given the limits I am inclined to call considering I have a decent hand and good outs if I'm behind. On the other hand the shove is way too big for the pot and adds a lot of risk. Plus the villain seems like a tight player ( but only ~30 hands).

Let me know how the pros analyse this situation

(Also if this is inappropriate with regard to any of the forum rules please let me know so I can correct the mistakes in my future posts)

888 Poker - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+2: 40 BB (VPIP: 32.56, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)
Hero (CO): 109 BB
BTN: 85.5 BB (VPIP: 8.33, PFR: 4.17, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
SB: 115 BB (VPIP: 35.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
BB: 164 BB (VPIP: 47.37, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
UTG: 141.5 BB (VPIP: 8.57, PFR: 8.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
UTG+1: 84 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 63)
MP: 83.5 BB (VPIP: 45.83, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 24)
MP+1: 110 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 45)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qc 9c
UTG raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 3.5 BB, fold, SB calls 3 BB, fold

Flop : (11.5 BB, 3 players) 2c 7c Qh
SB checks, UTG bets 7.5 BB, Hero raises to 20.5 BB, fold, UTG raises to 138 BB and is all-in ...

IMO if you dont plan to stackoff that flop dont raise. TP+FD would be good enough to stackoff if you were midstack, i play 40bb and often stackoff that kinda situations. here i would require bit deeper analize

let say that this is his open 66+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo tho it might be even tighter cuz i dont think that he opens same from UTG and from BTN but NVM, lets say that on that flop he will stackoff all toppairs (which most beat your kicker), all overpairs and sets, which is
KK+, QdQs, 7d7h, 7d7s, 7h7s, AdQd, AsQs, KdQd, KsQs, AdQs, AhQd, AhQs, AsQd, AcQd, AcQs, KdQs, KhQd, KhQs, KsQd, KcQd, KcQs

and it looks like http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Qh7c2c
equity Win Tie
MP2 43.95% 43.42% 0.53% { Qc9c }
BU 56.05% 55.52% 0.53% { KK+, QdQs, 7d7h, 7d7s, 7h7s, AdQd, AsQs, KdQd, KsQs, AdQs, AhQd, AhQs, AsQd, AcQd, AcQs, KdQs, KhQd, KhQs, KsQd, KcQd, KcQs }


now you need to pay 85bb to win 219bb
so its .44x(219)-85=96,36-85=11,36bb

i havent done this in a while and i might be wrong here but it seems to be a plus ev situation

ill check back in the mourning to try it again, it pretty late now and im bit tired...

@DrazaFFT Wow this is some great analysis, thank you for taking out the time! I am not very good at deducing hand ranges given a player's stats, would you know any good reading material on the subject?

Also I know this is rough EV and I am asking to understand it more but wouldn't we subtract 56% of 85?

Lastly, given the stack sizes, do you think it is wise to stack off in this situation? Or should we fold given that we are not pot committed atm?

Thanks once again for the detailed analysis!

FOLD PRE!!! I don't like the flop raise at all (he's a 9/9 player raising UTG, he's got an overpair about 99.8% of the time) but once you do it considering the FD you have o call the shove. Make no mistake though, you're almost always behind.

If you fold to the flop 3-bet, then you did everything wrong in this hand!

About preflop, i do agree that Q9s is too wide to cold call against UTG.
about the calc question, you winning the whole pot 44% of the time, thus .44x219 but youre investing 85 every time thus .44x219-85

aboud the should you call it or not question you gotta know that it might be, ( tho i would need to check that) that this is a +EV situation only because you already raised him on the flop and make it a dead money inside to compensate for a below 50 equity, if he snap shoved there this could easily be -ev spot. That being said, dont make it a habit of snap calling TP+FD cuz it wont always be +ev and also you need to prepare that more often he will be ahead on flop and you will lose almost 6 out of 10 of this same hands so if you are tilt prone you might wanna avoid this even that its a +ev in this exact spot...

i would also recommend to work on your preflop ranges, the opening range, cold call range against each position, 3bet range and stackoff range...

couple things

1) would take Q9s out of your calling range OOP pre.

2) as played would have rather called the flop, you have a good hand which is very vulnerable, take the card to see if it improves you or is bad for you.

3) as played when he shoves you need to call could be up against AQ, two pair, flush draw, hands you have alot of equity against.

Fold pre. Trust me, I reckon a big chunk of the reason you're not a winning player (yet!) is playing too many hands. Especially playing too many hands OOP (I get this is IP, just giving a tip). Facing an UTG raise fold this because what exactly would he be raising with? This isn't even a good speculative hand.

Opening Q9s from the CO is a spot to steal, depending on your blinds, but you need to respect UTG raises from players like this. Small sample, but he's proven he's disciplined preflop. If this was against a slightly looser player, it would also be a good idea to check whether he is positionally aware.

You have to call the shove. Against AA or KK your ~50/50. Against QQ you are a huge dog 30/70, but there is only one combo of QQ. Does tight player riae UTG with 77 or 22? unlikely.

What else does a tight player raise UTG with? AKs, AQs, AK. AJs

AK or AJ of clubs is 50/50. your killing AcKs ahead 80/20, and losing to AQ is 40/60.

You are calling 117.5 BB to win 145.5 BB so you clearly must call since you are only behind one combo of QQ.

But the previous posters are right calling a tight players UTG raise is suicidal. There will be many many better times to put money in.

Thank you all! And I agree, I am working on playing a tighter range. I have realized I'm more of a passive player so there is a lot of work to be done and at the micros it is very difficult playing a tighter range when players donk out with trash hands. So yea lots of on the table and mental work to be done but at least its a foot in the right direction

Yup, terrible hand to call with pre. I don't exactly like the flop raise but I think we have to snap call now.