$2 NLHE Full Ring: flopped set, flush draw on board, flush complete on river, hero?

KerouacsDog

KerouacsDog

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 26, 2006
Total posts
9,410
Chips
0
$2 NLHE Full Ring: flopped set, flush draw on board, flush complete on river, hero?

sorry about the format, cant get a decent convertor for microgaming.

anyway, 5th hand of game, so no stats.
way villain played this Im thinking he has flush draw and completes by river, then checks to induce a bet then would raise me. whats my move on river?

** Hand # 4076130334 starting - 2011-09-10 09:42:59
** Harlech [Hold'em] (0.01|0.02 NL - Cash Game) real money

DIRK0Z sitting in seat 2 with €1.87
safirus99 sitting in seat 3 with €0.00
smackys sitting in seat 4 with €1.74
RD81 sitting in seat 5 with €1.37
Sofia323 sitting in seat 6 with €2.42
KerouacsDog sitting in seat 7 with €2.24[Dealer]
Zemgale-187 sitting in seat 8 with €4.01
speed1982 sitting in seat 9 with €1.10
PhillMill sitting in seat 10 with €2.53
Zemgale-187 posted the small blind - €0.01
speed1982 posted the big blind - €0.02

** Dealing cards to KerouacsDog: 3h, 3s
PhillMill called - €0.02
DIRK0Z folded
safirus99 called - €0.02
smackys called - €0.02
RD81 folded
Sofia323 called - €0.02
KerouacsDog called - €0.02
Zemgale-187 folded
speed1982 checked

** Dealing the flop: 7h, 3d, Kd
speed1982 checked
PhillMill checked
safirus99 bet - €0.04
smackys folded
Sofia323 folded
KerouacsDog raised to €0.10
speed1982 folded
PhillMill folded
safirus99 called - €0.10

** Dealing the turn: Qh
safirus99 bet - €0.04
KerouacsDog raised to €0.28
safirus99 called - €0.28

** Dealing the river: 4d
safirus99 checked
KerouacsDog ????
 
naruto_miu

naruto_miu

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 31, 2007
Total posts
12,123
Awards
5
Chips
1
but then if he has the flush, Ive lost 50 cents?


But If He had the Flush why would he Check to you? Would he not want to get more money in the pot and let you call his Bet rather then C/C you down? And then What Check the River in Hopes you'd Bet and He'd what C/R? It doesn't Seem like that's the Play here, just seems like a weak Kx Who's just looking for Cheap Show down, but I've been known to be wrong often:eek:
 
KerouacsDog

KerouacsDog

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 26, 2006
Total posts
9,410
Chips
0
cause on the flop and turn I was aggressive, so on the river Im thinking he wants me to bet into him so he can raise me?
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
So if he raises you, you fold. EZ game.
 
KerouacsDog

KerouacsDog

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 26, 2006
Total posts
9,410
Chips
0
But if he has anything else, you'll win 50 cents.
guess Im too pessimistic, too often I see flush-drawers chase and hit on river. This looked like another classic case of that.
 
R

RVladimiro

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 27, 2011
Total posts
759
Chips
0
but then Ive lost the 50 cents I bet on the river. is it EV+ to bet this river?

Flushes are rare (1 for each 3 trips) and you are assuming his calling range is only suited cards. He will call you with two pair or even a K has a bluff catcher assuming he knows what that is. If he is a complete fish, he will call you with any pocket pair.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
People don't have a flush as often as you think. He's going to have it here a good portion of the time but if you stop checking good hands any time a third flush card hits the board I guarantee your win rate will go up, especially if you start incorporating bluffs there as well.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
I would check back if I had KK though.
 
C

ClubArrow77

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 20, 2011
Total posts
317
Chips
0
hands that have you beat are higher trips and a made flush. If player had KK though, I think villain would reraise to get people out of the pot. Since you have no reads and feel scared of the made flush, you could check down and make a note on the player for later.
 
KerouacsDog

KerouacsDog

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 26, 2006
Total posts
9,410
Chips
0
Flushes are rare (1 for each 3 trips) and you are assuming his calling range is only suited cards. He will call you with two pair or even a K has a bluff catcher assuming he knows what that is. If he is a complete fish, he will call you with any pocket pair.
I wasnt worried about him calling, more about him raising with the flush
People don't have a flush as often as you think. He's going to have it here a good portion of the time but if you stop checking good hands any time a third flush card hits the board I guarantee your win rate will go up, especially if you start incorporating bluffs there as well.
ok cool. just always seems that villain shows up with flush on a hand like this, ie no preflop raise.
I would check back if I had KK though.
what?
hands that have you beat are higher trips and a made flush. If player had KK though, I think villain would reraise to get people out of the pot. Since you have no reads and feel scared of the made flush, you could check down and make a note on the player for later.
wasnt scared of a higher set, if he has it, so be it. Just the flush draw(the way he played that hand screamed to me thats what he had), then the third of same suit on river and the check to induce bluff/bet says flush.
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

Resident Thugmaster
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 3, 2009
Total posts
3,127
Chips
0
Listen to baudib.

Baudib would check back KK here because, correct me if I'm wrong, it takes out a bunch of Kx hands out of villain's range. Without the Kx hands in his range we could very well be very behind.

Also the check doesnt mean that he has a flush. It could mean he's tired or donk bet/calling or maybe he doesn't want to bet his small pair or Kx with a weak kicker, who knows?

Also why would you care so much if he has a flush but not a higher set?? It's the same thing as you're beat either way. Who cares if he raises us on the river because we just fold, nh by us!
 
KerouacsDog

KerouacsDog

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 26, 2006
Total posts
9,410
Chips
0
because in my mind, sets play differently. and set over set is harder to get than flush over set.
 
Jurn8

Jurn8

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jul 3, 2008
Total posts
5,348
Chips
0
edit use weaktight.com as i misread hand


raise flop bigger, bet riv half pot
 
Last edited:
KerouacsDog

KerouacsDog

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 26, 2006
Total posts
9,410
Chips
0
lol that is weaktight.com ffs!
thanks J8 for the info, guess i have to stop fearing flushes.


fwiw, he had AK...............................
 
TylerN

TylerN

Kool-Aid & Frozen Pizza
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 2, 2009
Total posts
3,728
Chips
0
how is that weaktight.com
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
When you have 33 here there are 12 combos of AK he can have, not to mention 12 combos of KQ, KJ, etc.

If you have KK, however, you are blocking 2/3s of his combos of top pair so his range will be weighted more toward flush draws.
 
G

Gunner57

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 10, 2011
Total posts
211
Chips
0
Good hand and great discussion. With a set you essentially have a lock on this hand unless villian has the flush. So with that you want to bet the max amount where 2 pair and K good kicker are going to call while still being able to throw it away if raised by a flush....

If you had a little weaker hand then you for sure want to check for cheaper showdown.

The only time you may want to not consider this river bet is if villian is a good player and will see the opportunity to raise you on the river as a bluff or always fold his 2 pair. In that instance it may be better to check for showdown as you will be raised when you are beat (or villian will bluff you out) and will fold so you do not pick up extra bets when you have him beat.
 
B

baudib1

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 2, 2008
Total posts
6,635
Chips
0
Almost no one raises you on a bluff here. If they do they won't be playing micros for very long.

Do yourself a favor and for the next month, keep track of how often you bet the river with the nuts and get bluff-raised.
 
Nathan Williams

Nathan Williams

Poker Pro
Silver Level
Joined
Sep 13, 2011
Total posts
1,095
Awards
3
Chips
10
Exactly, you will never be bluff raised here.

Raise a lot more on the flop. On the river bet about half pot.
 
R

RVladimiro

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 27, 2011
Total posts
759
Chips
0
Do yourself a favor and for the next month, keep track of how often you bet the river with the nuts and get bluff-raised.

Only maniacs and clueless fish do this and there aren't that maniacs around... unfortunatelly. Plenty of clueless fish though... I'm constantly opening the replayer to check a hand that ringed a bell to take notes on behaviors like this.

Some of the clueless fish turn their hand into a bluff thinking they have a big hand, like on the river there are 4 to a straight, 4 to a flush and the board is paired and they raise their bottom two pair. But that's the thing with them, they are always over representing their hand.
 
Full Flush Poker
Top