$2 NLHE Full Ring: Flopped QQQ on AKQs flop, how to proceed

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RoboGrinder

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Hi. Im in a full ring game. The table has been pretty straightforward so far, no wild players or crazy shit going on atm. im under the gun +1 with QQ. I open for a raise to .07c which is pretty standard for my opening TAG range. Villan in middle position calls and villian in late position min raises. I dont like his min raise and am suspicious of it, but, i have QQ and i (1) i wanna define raisers range a bit, (2) i wanna get the caller out of the hand against my QQ. I 4bet to .37c, and unfortunately both players behind me call making a large pot as i see the flop OOP w/ my QQ. Flop comes AKQ all spades. Im first to act and i flopped my set of queens. But this is a very scary, very coordinated board. The last thing i wanna have happen though is for it to check around with 3 players and have another spade come on the turn. So i bet .81c into the pot of 1.14c. Villan in mp folds, Villan in late position raises to 1.62$ which would put me all in. I have .73c in my stack remaining. Im ****ed here probably i know, but i also dont think i can fold now either, maybe he is drawing or even just has an ace or AK. Doesnt feel like im ahead but i make the call anyway.

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (UTG): 95.5 BB
UTG+1: 90 BB (VPIP: 16.47, PFR: 10.59, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, hands: 86)
MP: 101 BB (VPIP: 16.53, PFR: 11.69, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 254)
MP+1: 134.5 BB (VPIP: 17.39, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 24)
CO: 148 BB (VPIP: 36.07, PFR: 15.83, 3Bet Preflop: 4.65, Hands: 124)
BTN: 98.5 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 20.83, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 24)
SB: 31 BB (VPIP: 41.10, PFR: 20.55, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 73)
BB: 99.5 BB (VPIP: 13.79, PFR: 8.84, 3Bet Preflop: 1.86, Hands: 469)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q:diamond: Q:club:

Hero raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, MP+1 calls 3.5 BB, CO raises to 6 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 18.5 BB, MP+1 calls 15 BB, CO calls 12.5 BB

Flop: (57 BB, 3 players) K:spade: A:spade: Q:spade:
Hero bets 40.5 BB, fold, CO raises to 81 BB, Hero calls 36.5 BB and is all-in

Turn: (211 BB, 2 players) A:club:

River: (211 BB, 2 players) K:heart:

i have edited out the result of the hand.
 
mbrenneman0

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looks fine to me... the flush on the board is a little scary, he could have AA or KK as well, but he probably would have jammed with those hands pre... most likely youre going to get a ton of value from all of his Ax hands by betting the flop like this. when he raises all in, im thinking AK or AQ, definitely a good call... sometimes he shows up with a flush here, but how many flushes are really left in his range on this flop... does he call a 4bet to 18bb with JTs? i dont think so
 
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braveslice

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Flop is not scary: Best flush he can have is TsJs, best flush draw AxJs and on 4bet pot you just need to disregard most of these hands, so only hands you lose to are AA and KK. Both hands are possible but given action not very likely.

So you have most likely the best hand on the flop with great draw to full house and you just pile to money in. Like you did.

I would have 4betted CO too, usually these min raises are funny hands, instead of monsters, if you get 5betted over, the likelihood that this is monster skyrockets, but this did not happen.

I would say reasonable range villain would play like this is: {KK-QQ,AQs+,KQs,AKo}, where KK represents 50% of AA+KK, and you have 65.7% equity on the flop to call. Hero has QQ blockers, so even leaving Qs out and give range: {KK,AKs,AKo}, hero still has 62%. Adding the wort case scenario where viallin slowplays 100% and has range {KK+,AKs,AKo} we still have 51% enough to play exactly like did happen.
 
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RoboGrinder

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If such a river falls with such a hand, when any crazy K or A can beat you, QQ is not very useful.

this post is not useful, seeing as we got it in on the flop, if u read my post.
 
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RoboGrinder

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Braveslice, thanks for the analysis, appreciate it.
 
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tcopeland93

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It depends how aggressive they've been preflop, but I would probably have them on KK+ or Ax. Not sure I'd buy them jamming with less than 2 pair, but their stats look pretty loose so its possible.

What'd they end up having?
 
TheBigFinn

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looks fine to me... the flush on the board is a little scary, he could have AA or KK as well, but he probably would have jammed with those hands pre... most likely youre going to get a ton of value from all of his Ax hands by betting the flop like this. when he raises all in, im thinking AK or AQ, definitely a good call... sometimes he shows up with a flush here, but how many flushes are really left in his range on this flop... does he call a 4bet to 18bb with JTs? i dont think so

I agree with Hero's entire line and almost everything quoted. If I am in CO Villain's position I 5 bet AI with AA or KK preflop after an EP bet and over call TWICE. I'm good with winning the pot right there in lieu of facing 2 players on the flop. I doubt Villain has AA or KK.

The 3 flush flop only looks scary. braveslice pointed out how few spade hands Villain can have after you see the AK & Q of spades on the flop. Even if Villain would 3B, call JTs, that's only 1 combo of spades to the absolute nuts and three combos to a straight.

So what's left for Villain? AKs and AQs and maybe JJ or AKo call the 4 bet, JJ is folding, but the rest just flopped 2 pair on a coordinated and have outs to a boat. From their view what can you have if they have AK? Since you 4 bet into a call and a 3 bet you likely don't have JTs. I would have 4-bet AA, KK, QQ, AKs, AQs, plus bluffs. On an overly aggressive day maybe AKo and lower pairs too. If Villain has AK after the flop there is only one combo of AA and KK, 3 combos of QQ, 4 combos of AK and 2 combos of AQs plus bluffs. She has to know it is thin, but is she good enough to fold top two here?

Once you raise Villain has only two choices, fold or push. She's priced into a call just about every turn card getting 5 to 1.

If she shows you AA, KK or JT of spades, God Bless, next hand.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Just call the 3-bet. Villain is a tight 3-betting fish, he's telli g you he has a good hand.

Doesn't affect the results though, we still get it in on the flop.
 
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RoboGrinder

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villain showed AA there, i was pretty suprised. I would never not get it in pre flop with AA in nl2 given the action and the opportunity. yeah.. next hand.
 
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As played it's fine. Flopping flushes is even harder than flopping sets...
 
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