$2 NLHE Full Ring: Fish pots the river All In, call or fold?

Hero (CO): $2.69
BTN: $1.37
SB: $0.62
BB: $2.00
UTG: $1.30
UTG+1: $3.17
MP1: $1.56
MP2: $2.00

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO with A :club: 9 :heart:
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.06, 1 fold, SB raises to $0.10, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.22) K :diamond: 4 :spade: 3 :diamond: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.11, SB calls $0.11

Turn: ($0.44) 5 :club: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($0.44) A :heart: (2 players)
SB bets $0.41 all in, Hero ???

SB is 75 (!) / 7 / 0.9 (18%) with 10.5% 3bet (!!! 3bets more than raises, incredible), only 57 hands though

1. Call or fold? He can have pretty much anything and who can tell what is his 3bet range if he even has one fixed...

I'd be very tempted to call just because he's a 75/7 but I have a feeling you'd be beat here. Depends on his tendencies? Have you seen him play like that before?

Don't think much of his 3bet stat by the way. 57 hands is nowhere near enough to go by to be able to make anything of it. He could 3bet someone in the very next hand and that stat would jump right up.

Insta-muck. PFR is really narrow, so he probably has a suited Ace (my guess is A4), and rivered the Aces up.

Having connected the wheel is semi-plausible as well, but his PFR is nitty, so I can't imagine that he got in with Q-rag/J-rag or whatever. Point is that there's just way too much in his range there that beats you for a hero call.

He looked like aggro 3-betor to me, I have seen just a few of those but these guys love 3-betting with stuff like 66+ (I am not kidding, I saw that today and not from this guy)... therefore assuming he has an Ace is a bit too narrow.

LD1977 said:

He looked like aggro 3-betor to me, I have seen just a few of those but these guys love 3-betting with stuff like 66+ (I am not kidding, I saw that today and not from this guy)... therefore assuming he has an Ace is a bit too narrow.

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He definitely has A2s and probably has like 23s and maybe even K2s/Q2s or whatever in his 3bet range. There's just too many wheels and overpairs in there for hero calling to be profitable.

Yeah, it is kind of hard to put these muppets on a range, they just tilt suddenly and 3bet with ATCs, SC, any PP, any two Broadways... who knows Someone told him he needs to defend his blinds or whatever.

Anyways, this time the muppet had 55 and managed to hit a set on the turn, which he promptly checked because, hey, he has like 0.41 behind so he needs to be tricky.

I called him since these guys are totally random and I was curious what can he have here. In fact I am pretty sure he takes the exact same line even without a set, just pocket fives.

Also, he bets missed FD here like 100% of the time since I just checked the turn.

I just wanted to see how others think about the situation, frankly this kind of stuff is total lottery in my short and limited experience in 2NL (80k hands).

Just call. 2NLers find a lot of retarded reasons to shove on the river, like a missed FD, a K gone bad on the river, or just thinking they can bluff like on TV.
You will see a lot Kxs, stickied pocket pairs but of course occasionally the lolfish turned a set.

If you thought he was 3 betting light why not 4 bet him all in and get it over with? As played I would call and most likely pay him off

Why go All In? He is pretty much committed, if he checked on the river I would bet half pot into him and he would have to fold or jam. If I didn't hit anything, I save money. Win win scenario.

LD1977 said:

if he checked on the river I would bet half pot into him and he would have to fold or jam.

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Eh? Why? He wouldn't have to do either. If you do make such a bet otr (which is a good idea) he's much more likely to call than to check/shove. 4 bet shoving pre is burning money here mind you so yeah the call is fine.

I don't think your half pot flop bet when the 3 bettor checks to you is going to get many folds. I get the idea behind it since he probably bets a king but I don't know that I trust this player from what we know to fold a 99/TT type hand to a turn shove nevermind 11 cents otf. You can bet one of the flop or turn and then shove one of the turn or river I suppose, but if the plan was to make one bet otf and give up then it doesn't seem that it's going to show an immediate profit.

His river shove after checking the turn is amusing. Common play from an oop player who's scared you're going to check it back again. As played I'd muck here given the size of his shove relative to the pot, the fact you only beat a bluff, and that we don't know if this seemingly passive player has a penchant for suddenly bluff shoving oop. If we've been observant and seen him/her spaz with unusual hands previously then sure, that's different. In my experience though a made pair often just tries to get to showdown here so if you remove or at least mitigate QQ and lower there's really not many hands left you can actually beat he reraised you with pre. Maybe a QdJd, but a lot of his diamonds hands will have the Ad, so yeah. At least if you had a K33 flop instead of K43 then kickers would be buried.

Many years ago when I was learning poker through sheer trial and error, I'd tell myself that when an ace falls on w/e street and then a fish (oop in particular) comes alive and suddenly likes their hand, they have at the very least an ace, and more likely they're hoping you have an ace. It was actually pretty reliable most of the time. Then I got a little better and into the small stakes limits and it was almost the opposite in a way where an ace was always supposed to be a great card to barrel / bluff, and you knew it and your opponent knew it and he knew you knew it and you knew he knew you knew it etc. It led to some weird pots of considerable size with interesting hole cards. Really bad players though don't give much thought to board texture. Their focus is mainly on their own two cards.

LD1977 said:

Why go All In? He is pretty much committed, if he checked on the river I would bet half pot into him and he would have to fold or jam. If I didn't hit anything, I save money. Win win scenario.

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Do you think at this level they know what pot commitment is? I had this type of scenario happen 3 times a few weeks ago a 4 bet shove on smallish stack and 2 times they folded 3 called and showed A6s. Micros who know what they are doing.

Had to run didn't get to finish. So if he is pot committed as you say then villain is almost never folding. Why are we calling a pot committed person pre flop if we are folding so much post flop? If villains stack was deeper would you call A9o or 4-bet it?

Thanks for answer guys.

1) RoTs - You have to understand that A9o is likely ahead of his 3-betting range but likely behind his stacking off range. Calling keeps all the crap in. Also if I believe I can stack him post flop every time I hit an Ace (unless he flops 2 pairs/set or manages to find it in himself to fold flop ), then there is no need to risk the money pre flop.

Against deep stacks I probably would just fold A9o to a 3-bet since it is too tricky to play due to kicker issues. Shorts stacks are more easily commited with medium pairs which pair of Aces crushes (even pair of 9s with Ace kicker is not too shabby against looser villains like this one).

2) DK - As always I listen carefully to your advice
- I thought he has to fold/jam river since he can't do much with 0.20 left behind. He obviously doesn't have auto rebuy. They usually push here if they have anything.
- Flop bet - yeah he likely doesn't have a K here but I raised so I could have it also if he is fit or fold type then I get the pot here with air, which is always a good thing. Half pot needs folds only 33% of the time so this can't be too bad. Besides, this is my usual cbet size if I have something since this way I get short stacks committed and stack them easily.

Basically I risk 0.11 for a chance to:
1) take the pot immediately, which is break even by itself if I do it 33% of the time
2) get a free turn card in most cases, so if I stack him every time I hit an Ace on turn/river (minus the times he gets that set) this should be +EV (I didn't do math).

I am reasonably sure he shoves river with any pair, and I beat them all except a better Ace, so in this we disagree.

I may be rusty but I can't see calling 3-bets pre flop with no room to maneuver post (said villain was committed) is profitable.

He is not committed pre flop so if I jam he gets away from crap and doubles up on me with top of his range.

Wait .18 before you call and .22 after either way it is about 1/3 of his stack. If you said he was committed at .22 then what makes you think he is not at .18? Also either way you double him up at the top of his range, and win all the times he folds(if he does so). Maybe it just me but I can't see letting someone of the hook if I am ahead but i am also a little hyper aggressive especially against non traditional shorties .

I meant he is pretty much committed after he calls the flop bet, but I am not and can get away if I miss. If I hit the 9 I am not sure what is correct but would maybe go ahead anyway... TT-KK possibly doesn't just min 3bet, exception might be AA since I see crazy things being done with that hand in 2 NL

- I can't be sure about his 3bet range here except that it is probably pretty weak. I am not great either with A9o but should be ahead of his 3bet range.
- If he has some kind of SC or suited Broadway hand that missed completely, he will probably fold the flop ("fit or fold"). K hits my range pretty well.
- If he doesn't fold the flop I can be sure he has some kind of pair so I need to hit an Ace to be reasonably confident I am ahead.
- If he jams the flop (shorties LOVE this move with AA) I obviously have to fold with no regrets.
- Random 2 pairs and sets are always possible but not super likely and with his stack and the fact that he looks like a crappy player he is going to stack off anything here especially if I check the turn (this gets me to the river for free AND incites him to shove).

I don't think he bluff check-jams the flop, it is riskier than just jamming outright since he doesn't want me to call if he bluffs

You made a post about how you don't like shorties cause speculative hands are not really profitable against them, but you will play a speculative hand A9o against a shortie in a 3-bet pot. Both occasions if you hit you stack them if you miss you walk away, isn't this the same or am I missing something?

This week I took a dip into micros and noticed min 3bets mean anything from AA to 52o. Also I have seen so many shorties shove all aces, broadways, and suited kings. That's why I said I most likely would shove him all in pre flop if I feel he calls that light which your villain looked the type.
Even though you are thinking about ranges and so on do you think villain recognizes yours?

Yes but I thought about what ScottishMatt said and decided to play normally and see what happens. So far I am seeing good results after widening my range, obviously mainly because I play those weaker hands in LP and usually on the BTN.

By speculative hands I meant hands that are able to win big pots against multiple opponents if they hit, meaning SCs and PPs. They like nice fat juicy stacks so they can take their big payoffs.

A9o is basically a medium strength one pair hand which plays horribly against several players but is (just barely) good enough for blind stealing and playing IP post flop against one opponent. In fact this type of hand probably plays the best against a single short stack.

Edit: I didn't have any specific info on him regarding light stacking off. I don't know if he thinks about my range much, probably not really but no way to tell for sure without specific reads.

Not speaking for ScottishMatt but I believe he meant opening range is to be played the same, but calling imo is never profitable against a shorty. Most of the shorties I saw this week were weak/losing players know they are going to lose so they buy in small.
You turned A9o into a speculative hand by calling the 3bet and playing fit or fold for the remainder of his stack. A 75/7 player is only thinking about his hands as is the majority of micro players from what I have recently observed.

Just try not to call 3bets to often like that, many players (including myself in the past) are losing money like that.

I rarely call 3bets, mostly I fold or 4bet depending on villain's 3bet stats and my hand.

LD,

If you believe this player is enough of a button clicker to shove the river with any pair then the decision you're wondering about otr is a clear call. You mentioned something when discussing betting the flop about trying to hit an ace (which you'll miss 7 times out of 8) so that you can stack him. Well, you binked an ace, so stack him . With a range of pocket pair hands (including sets), Ax hands that beat you (AT+ and 2 pair hands), and even if you throw in stuff like 54s and 43s on top of that, you still have the odds to call this off. That doesn't even include unpaired hole cards like Kx that hit something. I don't like a call there much however since I strongly disagree that he's going to make a nonsensical play like that often enough. If he plays anything at all resembling the 75/7/0.9 you have on him so far then it's hard for me to imagine him turning a TT or w/e type hand into a bluff by shoving the river oop on a KxxxA board after checking twice.

Anyway, call in that spot if that's your interpretation of his line, since by counting card combinations (river play is fairly easy in that regard as you don't need to stove anything) you'll know you're doing better than the 2:1 you need.

Let's go back to the flop then now that I have a better inkling of what you think his range otr might be, (he has to actually get to the river in order to shove his pairs there). How wide do you feel he's calling your flop bet? I feel it's probably going to be pretty wide, as I mentioned before, and I'm inclined to think you agree with me if he could be shoving the river with any pair (and not necessarily Kx or better). If we suppose he peels with pocket pairs in which there's only one overcard to the board and folds everything that whiffs, then it's impossible to try and construct a range for him where betting the flop shows an immediate profit. Nothing better will fold except perhaps AT AJ and AQ (that aren't diamonds)... maybe 22... but this is a small part of his possible range just giving him most pairs and decent aces (and we can safely assume IMO he's at least that wide and probably wider).

I'm not saying don't bet the flop (although given things like effective stacks, villain's profile, his reraise, etc an argument can be made for taking the card and seeing if he checks a second time) and I'm not saying it's all that bad. I don't believe it's profitable though by itself so if the idea was to give up afterward unimproved you may just want to save yourself the bet. Stacks are such that you obv don't need 3 streets to make a play at this pot if you're intent on winning it anyway. Betting the flop makes more sense to me if you're going to shove the turn. Your notion that you're going to stack this player if an ace appears suggests taking the free card IMO since you still have two streets to stack him if you bink.

LD1977 said:

Half pot needs folds only 33% of the time so this can't be too bad. Besides, this is my usual cbet size if I have something since this way I get short stacks committed and stack them easily.

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Well, the 33% thing would be more accurate if the street was otr, and that you knew for certain villain's hand was best. If your cbet sizing gets short stacks committed to the pot so you can stack them, then I suggest a different sizing here, or not cbetting at all, as you have A9o on a flop that missed you by a country mile. Don't worry about a superfish who likely thinks on about the zeroth level exploiting you until it actually happens.

I wasn't being critical of the bet sizing otf at all in my other post btw I just don't think betting there is going to get many folds. You knew already I can get quite long winded over relatively minor things, so I won't apologize for it this time. I will apologize to everyone else though who tried to read though this thinking there was anything good in here lol. Suckers.

Smells like AT diamonds to me