$2 NLHE Full Ring: Do we have the right odds to call F/T to chase flush?

Was wondering if someone could help break down how we calc our odds need to make the F/T call? This is something I've been wanting to learn for a while. Would really appreciate the help!

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Villain: 18/15/2 - 133 hands
-PFR was generally from LP so I did not give him that tight of a range. I think I could have also made a case for a 3-bet pre even.

BB ($1.95)
UTG ($0.78)
UTG+1 ($3.68)
MP1 ($6.24)
MP2 ($1.61)
CO ($1.31)
Hero (Button) ($3.77)
Villain (SB) ($0.83)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J , K
3 folds, MP2 bets $0.04, CO calls $0.04, Hero calls $0.04, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.15) 5 , 8 , A (3 players)
MP2 bets $0.06, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.06

Turn: ($0.27) 6 (2 players)
MP2 bets $0.08, Hero calls $0.08

River: ($0.43) 8 (2 players)
MP2 bets $0.16, Hero raises to $0.88, MP2 calls $0.72

Total pot: $2.19 | Rake: $0.08

Pot 15c - you need to call 6c to win the 15c plus the 6c bet by villain.

So 6c to win 21c. You're getting approx 3.5/1 or 29% to make the call. The odds of you hitting the flush is (2% x outs x streets left).

So you have 9 diamonds to hit for the nuts,
9 x 2% = 18% chance of hitting the flush on the turn.
The same again for the river, for a total of a 36% of hitting your flush.

This would mean the flop call is correct, however you may face a bet on the turn as well.

So realistically on the flop you are paying 29% for an 18% chance of hitting the flush on the turn. This would seem like a bad call. Then implied odds come into play. We have to consider that although we are paying to hit our flush, when/if we do hit we can make them pay. The example hand you have gave you excellant odds to hit your flush.

Thanks! That is great help.

However, since we missed the flush on the turn - we obv re-eval our odds to call on the turn bet? If so then let me try...

Pot=0.27 w bet=0.16. We need to call .16 to win .43 which is
~2.7/1 or 37%. Our odds of hitting our nut flush are still 18%. So our turn call is bad?

pocketehs said:

Thanks! That is great help.

However, since we missed the flush on the turn - we obv re-eval our odds to call on the turn bet? If so then let me try...

Pot=0.27 w bet=0.16. We need to call .16 to win .43 which is
~2.7/1 or 37%. Our odds of hitting our nut flush are still 18%. So our turn call is bad?

Click to expand...

The bet on the turn was really small, only 8c.

So pot is 27c plus his 8c bet. So you are calling 8c into 35c, which is a little less than 25%, although you only have an 18% chnace of hitting your flush, you may be able to get paid on the river.

So river pot will be 43c you might get another 30c if he c/c or folds to a raise etc.

So the river value would give you the implied odds to make the call. Normally a bet would be larger than the one the villain has made. The bets look really weak so I would have raised.

Most players when in position will raise a straight or flush draw, this is because it not only gives them a better chance of stacking an opponent, but because it obviously has fold equity, so you can take down the pot straight away.