$2 NLHE Full Ring: combodraw -action@turn in limped pot

rdm4k

rdm4k

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No HH converter available for the site. I post the hand with some highlighted parts trying to make the HH mpore clear and more semplified as possible

#Game No : 436670281
***** 888poker Hand History for Game 436670281 *****
$0.01/$0.02 Blinds No Limit Holdem - ***
Table Lexington 9 Max (real money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: vawallpa2013 ( $2.83 )
Seat 2: Voy36 ( $3.67 )
Seat 3: jdizzle19 ( $4.07 )
Seat 4: Dimonys ( $1.32 )
Seat 6: 5bet4info ( $2.66 )
Seat 7: Raiseman13 ( $2.56 )
Seat 9: yooho7 ( $2 )
Seat 10: Pompboy2011 ( $2 )
jdizzle19 posts small blind [$0.01]
Dimonys posts big blind [$0.02]
yooho7 posts big blind [$0.02]

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to 5bet4info [ Jc, Qc ]

5bet4info calls [$0.02]

Raiseman13 folds
yooho7 checks
Pompboy2011 folds
vawallpa2013 calls [$0.02]
Voy36 folds
jdizzle19 calls [$0.01]
Dimonys folds

** Dealing flop ** [ 2c, Tc, 9d ]

jdizzle19 checks
5bet4info bets [$0.07]
yooho7 calls [$0.07]
vawallpa2013 calls [$0.07]
jdizzle19 folds

** Dealing turn ** [ 4s ]

5bet4info bets [$0.23]
yooho7 calls [$0.23]

vawallpa2013 raises [$2.74]

5bet4info ???

Villain is a pretty straightforward player, nothing relevant till now.
Anyway here the point is to know the ev of the call and so, if somebody is able to do some math that matters, could please try evaluate it ?

In game I folded but i was really tempted to make it. Should I have done it ?


DISCLAIMER: PLEASE CONSIDER THE HAND, AS PLAYED PREFLOP (dont want comment on the call preflop, ect. If u want you can express your opinion from the flop) Thanks
 
D

DunningKruger

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No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com

CO ($2.83)
Button ($3.67)
SB ($4.07)
BB ($1.32)
Hero (UTG) ($2.66)
UTG+1 ($2.56)
MP1 ($2)
MP2 ($2)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J
club.gif
, Q
club.gif

Hero calls $0.02, 1 fold, MP1 (poster) checks, 1 fold, CO calls $0.02, 1 fold, SB calls $0.01, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.10) 2
club.gif
, 10
club.gif
, 9
diamond.gif
(4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.07, MP1 calls $0.07, CO calls $0.07, 1 fold

Turn: ($0.31) 4
spade.gif
(3 players)
Hero bets $0.23, MP1 calls $0.23, CO raises to $2.74 (All-In)


The math here isn't too complex. 15 out of 46 unknown cards give you a straight or a flush on the river, so that happens approximately 32.6% of the time. At a glace, your pot odds are not very good here. 2.34 / 6 means you need to win at least 39% of the time not to lose money on this call, and assuming you have 15 outs to win the hand you're winning less than 1 in 3. Now, if the other player in the pot overcalls (and the percentage of times he's going to do this here is a judgement you'll need to make) and you still assume to have 15 outs that beat both players, then it would in fact be +EV to call it off as you'd only need to win 29.25% of the time in the 3 way scenario. The issue is 1) being wrong about MP's inention to overcall and 2) being wrong about either player's hand range and the number of outs you actually have. If someone's playing Axcc for instance then you're in trouble. On the other hand it's not impossible Qs and Js are also good otr. I think if you play around with Stove a bit you'll find this to be a fold. I don't think MP comes along nearly enough to make it profitable... although if he's a special kind of terrible he might overcall with something like JT or w/e.

You asked only about the math and so I won't comment beyond that.
 
loafes

loafes

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Don't limp UTG with QJ even suited. bet on the flops fine, on the turn I actually like check call against these types of players simply because you don't really have fold equity since they don't like to fold, by check calling instead we don't bloat the pot without a made hand Although I don't think a bet of around half pot is that bad since we have such a big draw. As played I think you have to fold the turn.
 
rdm4k

rdm4k

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@DunningKruger + rep. very clear. Exactly what I was looking for :)
ahhh, and ty for the HH converter - I've been literally struggling to find one

@loafes thx for the analysis. I just said to comment as played preflop coz it is a pretty unusual line for me, to limp pre-flop (at all). Being not standard, doesn't really matter to limp or raise in this spot.
Atm I am playing FR (which i never played basically) and coz of the stake I am trying several moves to adapt to the game according to the table tendencies and to the opponents (anyway we'll be ot talking about that now). thx anyway
 
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