$2 NLHE Full Ring: Calling turn All In with a set in hand - pot odds issue

LD1977

LD1977

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SB: $0.74
BB: $2.68
UTG: $1.37
UTG+1: $1.86
UTG+2: $1.26
MP1: $2.52
MP2: $1.86
CO: $0.65
Hero (BTN): $9.86

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with 9 9
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.02, 2 folds, CO calls $0.02, Hero calls $0.02, 1 fold, BB checks

Flop: ($0.09) K 9 Q (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, CO checks, Hero bets $0.10, BB calls $0.10, UTG+2 calls $0.10, CO folds

Turn: ($0.39) T (3 players)
BB bets $0.23, UTG+2 raises to $1.14 all in, Hero folds, BB folds

BB is a nit 15 / 7 / 1.2 (68 hands)
UTG+2 is a fish 80 / 13 / 8 (only 15 hands)

My outs are 9 (2 outs), KQT (9 outs), basically full house hunting or lucky quads. J is maybe an out but maybe not (AJ wins anyway).

So, 11-14 outs total, I need to call 1.14 to have a chance to win 1.76. Fold is mathematically correct? We assume BB is getting out of this.

1. How to calculate this stuff quickly during a game while playing several tables (only 2 in my case but still the question is long term relevant)?
2. What is correct decision here, assuming villain has the J in hand? Fold, right? I have a stack that can destroy him when I have a better edge.
 
youregoodmate

youregoodmate

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Yeah this is a fold.
 
OMGITSOVER9K

OMGITSOVER9K

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raise pre.. as played overbet flop since ranges are inelastic.

turns an obv fold.. + you're sharing outs with BB (UTG+2?)
 
dj11

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You are under counting your outs by a large number. Half the deck (all cards below 8's) are also outs on that flop with the exception of when villain flops the nuts.

It is times like this that I have to trust myself and shove before he does. At 2nl I'm calling the lagtard shove. His range is bigger than the grand canyon.

If we don't believe the numbers, why do we bother with them? Villain is VP 80, that is a serious number that in this case I will believe over any odds numbers.
 
micromachine

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Not easy to work out your outs here because KQT could easily boat one of the others up for a better boat. J cannot be counted as an out imo because any Ax hand would beat you.

I'd estimate that you have about 8 or 9 outs here and so a ~16-18% chance of hitting OTR. You cant assume BB will go in so you have to call $1.14 to win a possible $2.90 (you include your call too) so you can see 16-18% is nowhere near enough, would need ~40% chance of making your hand. Even if you assume BB will go in the call is not mathematically correct.
 
OMGITSOVER9K

OMGITSOVER9K

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Not easy to work out your outs here because KQT could easily boat one of the others up for a better boat. J cannot be counted as an out imo because any Ax hand would beat you.

then we don't need outs because we're ahead.. assuming we don't get it in multiway.
 
micromachine

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That's true, but we are essentially multiway, but then again I said we should ignore the BB in the calculation. Hmmmm confusing lol but either way its a clear fold imo especially with nit BB to act
 
micromachine

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Even if we include every KQT as outs the call is incorrect
 
MediaBLITZ

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1. How to calculate this stuff quickly during a game while playing several tables (only 2 in my case but still the question is long term relevant)?
Here's a little trick to help with that - AVOID THESE SITUATIONS BY:
#1 - RAISING PF - especially on BTN with 99
#2 - Bet that flop and bet it hard (really requires some PF action)
 
LD1977

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I thought it is kind of obvious I am hunting the UTG+2 stack, and have been stack hunting on this table for a while :D survivors are nits but new fish kept coming in.

Therefore, no raise preflop, I want him in pots with me as much as possible. The guy hates preflop aggression and folds unless he has at least something.
 
WVHillbilly

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I call BS. 80/13's don't fold preflop.
 
LD1977

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Well he isn't 100 / 13... he folds if he can't limp with garbage. I want him to limp :) hopefully he hits a pair and I stack him on the river.
 
acky100

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not raising pre is horrible, you need to realise this and more importantly understand why if you want to beat poker
 
LD1977

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I need to raise this because:
1. If all limp pre then I am ahead and while ahead, I value bet
2. If all fold, I get the blinds with no risk

Right?
 
WVHillbilly

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Well he isn't 100 / 13... he folds if he can't limp with garbage. I want him to limp :) hopefully he hits a pair and I stack him on the river.
If I must be very specific, I meant they don't limp/fold preflop very often. In other words odds are REALLY good that if you raise pre here, he'll call.
 
LD1977

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You are correct, but consider that all the nits want his stack too and I play like 20% of flops (VPIP + BB basically)... I am pressed for time :)
 
WVHillbilly

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I need to raise this because:
1. If all limp pre then I am ahead and while ahead, I value bet
2. If all fold, I get the blinds with no risk

Right?
You need to raise because you like money and the best way to win money in poker is by playing raised pots in position. Here you have an actual hand to go along with being in position and being against bad players. It should be a gold mine.

Don't **** it up by limping behind.
 
LD1977

LD1977

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Argh, forgot position as the reason :) my bad. I actually know about that one.

I am trying to do a specific thing here and am making an exception while accepting that this is a theoretical mistake. Or I should NEVER adjust strategy since it goes against pure math?

Edit:
I am not trying to be a smartass, I am asking seriously. These players are bad and they get stacked fairly easily so I am trying to exploit them while trying to learn stuff that I am going to use against better players.

So this is a question of immediate gain (stacking fishes) vs. practicing ABC poker. I am primarily trying to maximize my earning speed so I can get to the next level etc. until I hit a level where I can play proper poker :D
 
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WVHillbilly

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It doesn't make sense to adjust this way here. You have a bad player who limps (and presumably calls too much) preflop. You have the BTN. You have an actual hand. You like money. You raise.
 
dj11

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Shove or call the shove against an 80/13 and consider it a cooler if he actually has it.

If you fold here, you are playing beyond your br, go back to play money. (OMG, can you imagine ME saying that???)

You have opposing numbers here. pot odds vs VP stats. Pick a side, you are either playing the cards, or playing the player here. In this particular situation, I am playing the player.
 
LD1977

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C'mon, even a fish knows when he has the one card that completes a straight. So he must have the straight. How can this be a cooler?
 
WVHillbilly

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C'mon, even a fish knows when he has the one card that completes a straight. So he must have the straight. How can this be a cooler?
It's a fold as played on the turn. The size of your BR has nothing to do with making the best decisions. Oh yeah and raise preflop! :)
 
youregoodmate

youregoodmate

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Ignore DJ, its an easy fold. Dont know how I didnt notice that you didnt raise pre.
 
MediaBLITZ

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I am trying to do a specific thing here and am making an exception while accepting that this is a theoretical mistake. Or I should NEVER adjust strategy since it goes against pure math?
These players are bad and they get stacked fairly easily so I am trying to exploit them while trying to learn stuff that I am going to use against better players.
I understand you are "trying to do a specific thing here" - but this beyond a theoretical mistake and that is in part based on your reason above:
"These players are bad" - then get money into the pot. Why would you avoid getting money in versus a bad player???
"they get stacked fairly easily" - then get money into the pot. Why would you avoid getting money in versus someone who gets stacked fairly easy???
"I am trying to exploit them" - then get money into the pot. Why would you avoid getting money in versus a player you know you can exploit???
"trying to learn stuff that I am going to use against better players" - then get money into the pot. You do this versus better players and you become the exploitable one.
You are trying to be tricky - I get that - but you are being tricky on their level (bad players who get stacked because they are exploitable). You have to work on the level above them.
 
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