$2 NLHE Full Ring: Call, Shove, Fold?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

MP1 ($0.66)
MP2 ($1.37)
CO ($2)
Button ($2.02)
Hero (SB) ($3.97)
BB ($3.50)
UTG ($1.76)
UTG+1 ($2.75)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10 , J
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.04, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.04, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.03, BB calls $0.02

Flop: ($0.16) 8 , A , 9 (4 players)
Hero bets $0.08, BB calls $0.08, UTG+1 raises to $0.48, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.40, 1 fold

Turn: ($1.20) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $1.20, Hero ???

I'd probably reshove the flop in this situation since vil isn't folding but could easily shutdown on a scary turn card but is obv going to continue blasting with a very likely strong A given his large flop reraise.

Having blanked the turn facing a potsize bet (and still a street and chips behind) I don't believe its the right odds to call since he only has about 1$ left behind, might be close maybe for breakeven EV wise but not so sure how to calc that since there is still a street to come and you would both have chips behind if you just called.

If it was closing the action then it would be close to breakeven I believe .... 1.2/(2.4+1.2) = 33% being the equity we need to breakeven and we have 15 outs with 1 card remaining so slightly -EV or breakeven given a rough 30% to make our hand.... but since we are not going to be allin with a call its even worse.

Say we go allin so now its 2.2/(3.4+2.2) = 39% equity being what we need to breakeven (if my thought process is correct and we don't have that much equity.

Anyhow just my thoughts, perhaps someone else will correct me if my thoughts on the math are wrong .... its a rough workings atm.

fwiw was referencing the following https://www.cardschat.com/p2006255-post488.html with regards to calcing the equity above which we need to be breakeven on a call but its indicated as i said when its an allin situation so more more action left behind which is why i think you would be best to look at it based on if you went allin having 0 FE in this spot as to if you would break even at the least or not which you wouldn't from what i can tell so having gotton to the turn its a FOLD.

Pretty standard call with 15 outs. If you called the turn, well played.

Shoving the turn is lighting money on fire.

Do you have stats on villain?

I'd probably check raise the flop instead of donk betting. You've got a pretty strong draw and if he reraises, I'm ok with going all in on the flop. You've got a flush draw, OESD, Backdoor nut straight.

Your are an underdog to sets but you are a favourite to a lot of other combos suck as Ax, KX, KK, QQ, Qx,JJ, TT.

I won't shove on the turn with your line of play. Maybe a call depending on player type. You've lost equity and looking at his bet sizing you don't have any fold equity. It's almost certain you needed to get lucky on the river to win. Unless I have any info on the guy, pretty much a fold for me.

re-raise flop... we have a monster.

Also your raise on the flop was 1/2 ... make it at least full size with multi ppl in the pot

not in love with leading flop, as played flop is fine, turn is a clear call.

i re-raise/shove in flop, but in this situation call turn

This was a great situation to shove on the flop. You have a lot of outs.. clubs,q,7 2 times. Also you have some fold equity. If everybody folds you win with J high, not so bad. That is way you don't want to call such a big bet on the flop and than think about it on a brick turn. Just shove pre and you're in great position with this monster.

As played, you are getting a decent price to call but shoving on the flop is the best thing here.

The monster draw is usually around 50% equity against a made over pair. Because it's often a flip I always want to get my money in first with fold equity so that the shove becomes +EV.
Leading out is OK but you could always just CRAI on the flop and pick up the money's that go in on the flop.
Once he raises you on the flop that big he's pot committing most of the time. Just shove at that point where there still might be a small amount of FE. You are never folding here as played it's rarely worse than a flip and never worse than 60-40 if he has a set.

if we call on the turn aren't we pot committed. if so why not shove the turn?

skrsh76 said:

if we call on the turn aren't we pot committed. if so why not shove the turn?

Click to expand...

we arent ever pot commited when we have 0% equity. we can fold a blank river obviously.

Just call here on the turn $1,20 to win $2.40 but we probably pick up his remaining $1.03 if he hit. So our odds are more like 2.85-1 here on the turn with 32% equity against a TPTK hand like AhKc.
As Duggs said If we miss we check fold to a bet

Thanks. This is probably my biggest leak. I almost always go for it when I have a good draw and the pot is larger than my chips