$2 NLHE Full Ring: AQ fold turn when whale leads?

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mottotom27

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 67/6/2.7

UTG - UTG ($2.24)
UTG+1 - UTG+1 ($2.40)
UTG+2 - UTG+2 ($1.97)
MP - MP ($2.47)
MP2 - MP2 ($3.22)
CO - CO ($0.85)
BTN - Hero ($2.07)
SB - SB ($2.00)
BB - BB ($2.08)

Preflop: ($0.03, 9 players) Hero is BTN with As Qs
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.02, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, 2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.06

Flop: Qh 3h Th ($0.19, 2 players - UTG+2: $1.89, Hero: $1.99)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $0.15, UTG+2 calls $0.15

Turn: 7s ($0.49, 2 players - UTG+2: $1.74, Hero: $1.84)
UTG+2 bets $0.47, Hero ?

I feel like I could have raised a little more pre with a strong hand against a whale. When he leads for pot on the turn I'm thinking maybe a slowplayed flush or funky two pair, or am I giving him too much credit? I've seen fish do this with draws before, e.g 8-9 calls flop with gutshot, leads turn with open ender.
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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His raise on the turn suggests to me he might have a lower flush or a made hand and wanting to end the hand... But his flop play seems to cancel out that theory.

Id call the turn and see what the river brings. because something ain't adding up right there with our opponent.

we would probably fold most rivers though... its hard to know what to do with no reads though.





Really need to know if our opponent is a thinking player? a fish? his playstyle...
 
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mottotom27

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I said he's a whale (the biggest type of fish) and I also displayed his VPIP/PFR/AF which indicate he's a loose passive type of player (with a bit of aggression postflop).

Not sure I want to call with the intention of folding to a bomb on the river because the big river bet is likely coming anyway, so I'll just be burning money. If I call now then I'll probs have to call the river too.

I know from the past that when fish x/c flop and donk turn they usually either have two pair + or are betting with some sort of draw or even just overcards. Hard to tell which here so I took the safer option and just folded.
 
Aces2w1n

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I thought a whale was more like someone who had a lot of money to keep bringing back to the table?

Doesn't necessarily has to be a fish or a shark... I might be wrong on the term with whale but that's what I thought it was.
 
Aces2w1n

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He's either pushing you off... Or he's value betting thinking you've hit a smaller flush or straight.

Hmmm now analysing it again after... I think you should fold, even if you hit your q or a on the river all your going to be beating is a bluff.





He's bet into you after knowing you raised the flop.... The 7 hasn't phased him.
 
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I thought a whale was more like someone who had a lot of money to keep bringing back to the table?

Doesn't necessarily has to be a fish or a shark... I might be wrong on the term with whale but that's what I thought it was.

Yea you might be right about that actually, I just meant he was a big fish anyhow.

You're probably right, I think folding on the turn is best too. It kinda looks like a flush here, but you never know for sure with fish cos they don't really know what they're doing :p
 
Aces2w1n

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Also his 67 vpip.... trash hands.. if the board was A or K that could miss his range a lot haha.
 
weldphaser

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this is a tough spot. a tag wouldn't make this type of move . so i guess a fish is afraid you check behind and wants value, like aces said your prob only beating a bluff. i doubt he donks pot with a draw
 
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Yea, funny thing is if he'd just checked to me I probs would have potted it, so if he had a flush he missed out on a ton of value! Another line I've seen fish take is x/c flop x/c turn donk river. Sometimes river is a complete brick card like the two of diamonds. I've seen fish do this with a flopped flush but they could also do this with like a flush draw and bet when it misses.

Here I'd probably agree with you since it's a marginal spot and in these spots when I call I'm usually making a mistake. I have seen fish take this line with a draw, but they'd usually donk much smaller on the turn.
 
John A

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Yea, funny thing is if he'd just checked to me I probs would have potted it, so if he had a flush he missed out on a ton of value! Another line I've seen fish take is x/c flop x/c turn donk river. Sometimes river is a complete brick card like the two of diamonds. I've seen fish do this with a flopped flush but they could also do this with like a flush draw and bet when it misses.

Here I'd probably agree with you since it's a marginal spot and in these spots when I call I'm usually making a mistake. I have seen fish take this line with a draw, but they'd usually donk much smaller on the turn.

So if he checks the turn, you'd pot it, but now you're considering folding when he bets because of course a whale has a flush, and that's all he could be doing this with?

I just want to make sure I summarized all of the comments in here properly. Ya, guys... there's more hands he'll do this with than a flush, and you're not only beating a bluff. A whale could be doing this with any two cards almost, not even including Qx or Tx. They are a whale for a reason.
 
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It was the pot sized bet that threw me, but now that you mention it I suppose he was a whale so he could make all sorts of weird plays... so you're confident calling turn and then river is a +EV decision? Or should I shove turn?
 
John A

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I'd call turn, and then evaluate river. How many hands did you have on him? He doesn't look like a super passive whale.
 
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Just checked turns out I only had 18 hands on him. But he does have a high donk bet rate (4/8 times).
 
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