$2 NLHE Full Ring: Any way to get away from bottom set?

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Tricky123bet

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888 Poker - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 85 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 42.86, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 7)
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 153.5 BB (VPIP: 9.52, PFR: 4.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
UTG+1: 162.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
MP: 39 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
MP+1: 92 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
MP+2: 50.5 BB (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 123.5 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 2:spade: 2:diamond:

UTG raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 4 BB, BTN calls 4 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (13.5 BB, 3 players) 2:club: 6:spade: Q:heart:
UTG bets 9 BB, Hero calls 9 BB, fold

Turn: (31.5 BB, 2 players) A:club:
UTG bets 20 BB, Hero calls 20 BB

River: (71.5 BB, 2 players) 3:spade:
UTG bets 120.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 67 BB and is all-in

[spoil]UTG shows Q:club: Q:spade: (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 82%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)
Hero shows 2:spade: 2:diamond: (Three of a Kind, Twos)
(Pre 18%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)
UTG wins 193 BB
[/spoil]

On the river it really feels like I should have been able to let it go. But that's so easy to say in hindsight. What do you think? Should I have folded at any point in the hand, or just go all the way with the bottom set?
 
Beanfacekilla

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Respectfully, don't post results. It just biases input and it isn't relevant.

Call flop, raise turn get it in. You just lose.
 
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ccres

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Hi. No way I get away from low set in that spot. I would have raised flop or turn, ended up getting it in bad and losing. On the flop he could easily have a Qx or variety of pairs and bet that way.
 
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Tricky123bet

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Respectfully, don't post results. It just biases input and it isn't relevant.

Call flop, raise turn get it in. You just lose.

Sorry for posting results, thought it would be hidden behind one of those spoiler buttons.

I agree fully with the line that you propose, but as played (calling the turn), I was going to ask if there is any way to fold river.
But the sample size is too small to say that he is a super nit that will only have AA and QQ by the river. Including 9 combos of AQ as well I'm good 60%, and only need 33%, so I guess it's a call anyway.
 
Beanfacekilla

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Sorry for posting results, thought it would be hidden behind one of those spoiler buttons.

I agree fully with the line that you propose, but as played (calling the turn), I was going to ask if there is any way to fold river.
But the sample size is too small to say that he is a super nit that will only have AA and QQ by the river. Including 9 combos of AQ as well I'm good 60%, and only need 33%, so I guess it's a call anyway.


As played I call. I don't even sigh call. Just snappy snap snap snap call. Then, we lose. On to the next hand......
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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If you don't lose all your money in this hand, you have a leak.

Only way you can find a fold is if you're 200+ blinds deep.
 
Beanfacekilla

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If you don't lose all your money in this hand, you have a leak.

Only way you can find a fold is if you're 200+ blinds deep.


Yeah for sure. My friends and I kind of have a saying we reserve for hands like this.

One of us says to the other, "You just lose." Laugh it up, ha ha, on to the next hand.
 
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JKo2theQQ

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Agree 100% with the others. No way you could reasonably expect to get away from this. That flop was as dry as the Sahara desert and you spiked your set. I'm going broke 100 out of 100 times.
 
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drazak

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I just want to take a second and look at reasons you might want to bet the turn and the rive, when the turn comes there is now a flush draw and a potential straight draw since the flop (someone holding 45). Villain is betting 3/4 of the pot on the flop, 2/3rds on the turn, and overbetting the pot on the river. This polarizes his range in a huge manner, while I think you did the correct thing getting it in as his range consists of AA, QQ, and AQ, and there are many more combinations of AQ which you beat than of AA and QQ. There was a comment about potentially laying it down if you knew more about this villain, however even if villain is playing a thin top percentage of hands, AQ is almost certainly in their range.
 
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This is a pretty good example of why I don't care for the "current style" being touted as GTO.

I'd prefer a 3-bet here preflop for many reasons and see that as your only potential avenue to avoid getting it all in on any street. I said that based on the limited information you have about this player so far and why you might need to test/feel them out a little bit.

The consensus is right, as usual, though, that you're "just losing" almost always so whatever.

But, as played, the only "information" you got was that when leading out strong UTG with a top 3 hand and hitting top set, he kept the aggression in the hand, practically betting the max on every street, showing no fear of the ace and for likely good reason no fear of the flopped gutshot river. Sure, you can work with that, but while there was likely no better financial value to be gained from this hand, no matter how it was played, there was likely lost informational value as to how this player would have played if you tried to take the action from him preflop, etc.

food for thought (on an "always" losing hand)
 
Beanfacekilla

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This is a pretty good example of why I don't care for the "current style" being touted as GTO.

I'd prefer a 3-bet here preflop for many reasons and see that as your only potential avenue to avoid getting it all in on any street. I said that based on the limited information you have about this player so far and why you might need to test/feel them out a little bit.

The consensus is right, as usual, though, that you're "just losing" almost always so whatever.

But, as played, the only "information" you got was that when leading out strong UTG with a top 3 hand and hitting top set, he kept the aggression in the hand, practically betting the max on every street, showing no fear of the ace and for likely good reason no fear of the flopped gutshot river. Sure, you can work with that, but while there was likely no better financial value to be gained from this hand, no matter how it was played, there was likely lost informational value as to how this player would have played if you tried to take the action from him preflop, etc.

food for thought (on an "always" losing hand)

Umm, bolded section? This makes no sense to me. We 3b pre, thus building a bigger pot, but then that keeps us from being all in on any street?

We have position. Dude is UTG. Why on earth would we 3b pre?
 
Beanfacekilla

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Yeah and I forgot to mention, if he 4b, we get blown off the chance to setmine IP.

No 3b.
 
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SafetyMark

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Umm, bolded section? This makes no sense to me. We 3b pre, thus building a bigger pot, but then that keeps us from being all in on any street?

We have position. Dude is UTG. Why on earth would we 3b pre?

As I said, for a number of reasons. The biggest one in this particular instance is that the player, so far, is presenting themselves as very tight and has never 3bet pre. There is no GTO here, according to that you're just always folding preflop which seems super exploitable, or you're playing it basically as played here, flatting preflop and then always getting max killed set over set flop.

So the question is can exploitative help you here and I think it can, but it is so minimal compared to the alternative that I just explained (agreeing with everyone else) that MOST players won't appreciate or concern themselves with the value it presents.

In case I'm not being 100% clear... the opportunity to fold before an all-in is certainly less than 10% and ONLY done with a 3-bet preflop that gives you enough information to justify it. But since I think we can all agree that you almost "always" lose the max here, I'm suggesting it in this very specific instance as an information equity play only.
 
Diegol

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No unless itwas a super wet board like ig i had set 10 and theboard was A K 10 suited and with a 3bet preflop i might think about it but even in those spots it will be verdifficult to fold
 
Beanfacekilla

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As I said, for a number of reasons. The biggest one in this particular instance is that the player, so far, is presenting themselves as very tight and has never 3bet pre. There is no GTO here, according to that you're just always folding preflop which seems super exploitable, or you're playing it basically as played here, flatting preflop and then always getting max killed set over set flop.

So the question is can exploitative help you here and I think it can, but it is so minimal compared to the alternative that I just explained (agreeing with everyone else) that MOST players won't appreciate or concern themselves with the value it presents.

In case I'm not being 100% clear... the opportunity to fold before an all-in is certainly less than 10% and ONLY done with a 3-bet preflop that gives you enough information to justify it. But since I think we can all agree that you almost "always" lose the max here, I'm suggesting it in this very specific instance as an information equity play only.

Dude, what are you talking about? What is it like living in never-never land?
 
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SafetyMark

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Dude, what are you talking about? What is it like living in never-never land?

Would you like to play on BOL so I can SHOW you instead of trying to explain it and you being dumbfounded?
 
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SafetyMark

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No, of course not. I explained a next level way of thinking that I use in my game that you mistakenly viewed as garbage. Yet, you won't face me on the site you list on here.

Laughable, at best.
 
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Tricky123bet

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This is a pretty good example of why I don't care for the "current style" being touted as GTO.

I'd prefer a 3-bet here preflop for many reasons and see that as your only potential avenue to avoid getting it all in on any street. I said that based on the limited information you have about this player so far and why you might need to test/feel them out a little bit.

The consensus is right, as usual, though, that you're "just losing" almost always so whatever.

But, as played, the only "information" you got was that when leading out strong UTG with a top 3 hand and hitting top set, he kept the aggression in the hand, practically betting the max on every street, showing no fear of the ace and for likely good reason no fear of the flopped gutshot river. Sure, you can work with that, but while there was likely no better financial value to be gained from this hand, no matter how it was played, there was likely lost informational value as to how this player would have played if you tried to take the action from him preflop, etc.

food for thought (on an "always" losing hand)

I see what you are saying, but dude, this hand was played at 2nl. 3betting to get information when most players at 2nl already show us a lot by their vpip/pfr alone, is probably not necessary here. Also, this is not the kind of player I should target, 2nl has fish for that you know :)
 
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braveslice

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3betting to gain information is almost always wrong, but here especially, what information we gain that we don't already have? We can easily name villain's range already accurately and we know his range is superior to ours. We could 3bet as a bluff, that is not wrong per se especially if villain folds a lot, however given NL2 players call too much generally, set mining should be easily more EV line. Also there is no way that we can have so wide 3bet range vs UTG that every pair is there every time without opening hero to exploitation or at minimum counter strat by villains, just widening 3bet calling range a bit makes hero's life miserable.
 
Last edited:
Omahahahaha

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you could have folded preflop. you are a real dog to hit a set (7.5:1 against) and not really getting any odds on the call. Often you will hit your set and only collect one post flop bet. UTG is really tight so with a 4x open he probably does have a big pocket pair, in which case your implied odds should be decently high, but he also might be able to get away from an over pair after the flop. In general I'd rather draw against loose players because they are more likely to pay off when they are obviously beaten. If you are also a tight player villain isn't going to put you on top pair when you show a willingness to stack off on a T82 board.
 
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braveslice

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@Omahahahaha I suggested first fold too, but it seems games are soft enough according to database to call and make good profit

Possible reasons:
1. No squeezes
2. People call too wide after first call
3. People play draws (and bad draws too) too wide post flop if we hit
4. Even top pair call us if we hit
5. Probable fish will make pot large by calling multiway or over playing if set
 
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Keith_MM

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3betting a 9/4 utg open with 22 seems like suicidally bleeding chips as his range has us crushed and seems as though you are suggesting it so that we can fold to a 4bet. If we do that , seems like the majority of the time we are gonna get 4bet by his range so might just as well save the chips and fold rather than 3betting.
 
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Tricky123bet

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To me that 4bb open screams of premium pairs like AA, KK, QQ, so I think a set mine is definitely good here. Nits at 2nl can certainly pay us off with overpairs, and the effective stacks also offer good implied odds. If we aren't set mining here then when are we going to set mine? Set mining shouldn't be done too liberally, but this is one of the better spots imo.
 
froggeedogs

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bottom set

Frankly I wouldn't have called a 4BB raise with pocket deuces, but that's apparently just me. Having said that, once the third club hit the turn, I would have folded, definitely folded the all-in on the river.
 
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