This is a discussion on $2 NLHE Full Ring: AK on a questionable board. within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 87/64/5.29
I kind of blew up on this hand. Can someone maybe look at my flaws or was I just unlucky?
Poker Stars $0.01/$0.02
Pre Flop: ($0.03)
UTG calls $0.02, MP raises to $0.09, 1 fold, BTN raises to $0.28 with AKo, SB calls $0.27, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.26, MP calls $0.19 So, I had stats on this guy (see above) and he could literally have anything. Any comments on my raise size? Maybe should have made it 4x?
Flop: ($1.14) 3 <font color='black'>♠</font> 9 <font color='red'>♥</font> T <font color='red'>♦</font> (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, BTN checks So on this flop I checked because I thought that they could easily have a set here or xT kind of hand. I wanted to keep the pot small because it was big enough already.
Turn: ($1.14) K <font color='black'>♣</font> (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP bets $0.57, BTN calls $0.57, SB calls $0.57, UTG folds Right so MP bets out half pot. He is super loose. High AF. I didn't believe him and I just hit TPTK so I wasn't folding
River: ($2.85) 7 <font color='red'>♥</font> (3 players)
SB checks, MP bets $2.85, BTN calls $1.83 all in, SB folds I think I should have folded here. I do want to point out that my biggest leak right now is being "greedy" on the river. I call WAY too many times. Have you guys got tips how to prevent that from happing?
right so now that I look at it again. Why did I check on the flop because I was afraid of sets. But then call on the turn? It looks like I fall in love with my hand as soon as I have TPTK
25th July 2015, 12:33 AM
Online Poker at: Full Tilt
Think PF is fine, maybe just call in position.
4 way at 2nl, no need to c-bet so flop check is fine.
Not really any hands you beat come the river apart from random bluffs and with SB to act after you. I'd fold.
25th July 2015, 1:11 AM
Preflop I 3bet bigger like you said. You're ~140bbs deep. This villain will be calling bigger bets with all kinds of worse hands and probably 4betting a lot of them also where I'm usually happy to get it in preflop. Not only that but you will be more likely to get heads up with him.
I'm checking behind the flop as well, but not because I'm afraid of a set. Of course it's more likely someone hit a set when the pot is multiway, but right now I only have Ahi and a couple backdoor straight draws. If I bet I don't expect too much worse to be calling. Maybe some worse aces, some straight draws or over cards, but I think it's much more likely I'll be called by hands that beat me: 9x or Tx, medium pocket pairs, etc. I can see maybe cbetting here hoping everyone but the fish folds so you can be heads up, but I don't really feel like it's a great idea. I'm much more comfortable checking behind hoping for an A or K.
When the off suit K comes on the turn and the lagfish bets I think I just ship it there. I don't think SB or UTG would be checking their bigger hands. I think the fish would call with most of his Kx hands. He probably calls with his Qx or Jx hands for the gutshot. He might call with some of his paired hands. And if he folds his air, which I think he has lots of that too, I'm happy winning an 85bb pot.
As played on the river I'm not sure, but I probably call too. Looking at his stats makes me feel like he will be bluffing here a lot with his missed draws and quite possibly air. He likely bets there with most of his kings and maybe worse pairs. I tend not to beleive people running like 90/65 and 5.5 AF over a decent amount of hands. Maybe that's a leak. I dunno lol.
You're getting just over 2.5 to 1 to call so you have to win something like 29% of the time, I think (I might be wrong and would love to be corrected if that is so).
Of course this is just how I look at the hand. I make no claims that anything I say is the right way to look at it lol. I look forward to seeing what others say about it.
25th July 2015, 12:01 PM
re: Poker & $2 NLHE Full Ring: AK on a questionable board.
Thanks a lot for the analysis. About the amount of hands. I'm on my phone omw to the airport right now so can't check but I'm pretty sure I had 50+ hands with the guy . I thought just the way you did. I didn't believe his big bet since he was such an uber fish. He ended up having K9 for a two pair. I guess I was just unlucky and should move on. I think folding here against such a fish is too passive and not profitable in the long run but I'm not sure.
25th July 2015, 12:12 PM
Game: NL Hold'em
Not sure how your hud is setup. Some things to look at with these kinds of guys is WTSD%, W$SD%. Aggression on river is good too, however a better indicator in conjunction with the aggression, is what kind of hands is he shoving on the river, and/or what kinds of hands does he get all in with.
Dont get stuck and just focus on his preflop play after the flop. If his WTSD is low and his W$SD is high, or if WTSD is high and W$SD is low but he wins big pots, loses small pots you made a mistake. If his WTSD is high, his W$SD is low, and he is losing big pots then you got unlucky.
Taking that into consideration. You can also know if you want to ship the turn (IE, he only calls if your beat, don't ship), or call and see what he does on the river as it played out on this hand.
Also, while 50 is not alot of hands. You have already have roughly the same info on these types, as you do against players with 20% VPIP over 200 hands (still small).