Originally Posted by Wardy88
The reason we don't credit him with having other holdings that we beat is because villain has shown a tendency towards passiveness thus leading me to conclude that it is unlikely that villain would be shoving anything worse for value on the river, they would be checking back the majority of that range....
[T]hey're loose passive...these types of players are less likely to be bluff shoving rivers, and are almost always checking back their medium strength hands. IMO anyway.
What you are doing is making assumptions about what the villain here thinks is a play for value. I don't think anyone is making a strong argument for this guy to be bluffing most of the time. I think in fact the villain is NOT bluffing.
You agree that he has made some bad plays, in fact to get here with a hand that beats us he would have to be an idiot, because anyone else would have folded.
So in the scenario where the villain is an idiot, the kind of guy who has made it to the river with a hand that beats us (that isn't a set). We should also give the idiot credit for maybe OVERESTIMATING the value of his hands that DON'T beat us.
I find very very little room in my brain for assuming a guy is bad enough to be beating me with random cards but NOT bad enough to be value shoving with a worse hand. The guy who does one of these likely does the other.
Additionally, I think (especially against a bad player) we must assume that they will be doing this some percentage of the time for no reason we can think of. Maybe 5-10% of the time this kind of action will happen because of something we cannot think of. Even very good players will once-in-a-while make a move that is boneheaded. Maybe .05% of the time, but it happens. It happens more often with less skilled and less disciplined villains.
Because we have to figure that a bad player will sometimes do this for no reason, and because he is likely (at least 25% of the time) to do this with holdings that we beat, this is a must call.
If you think this is a fold you need to reconsider what you are doing, I would bet that you are over estimating the holdings of your opponents and are losing money as a result.