$2 NLHE Full Ring: AA vs. donk bet AND a raise on the flop

LD1977

LD1977

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MP2: $0.77
CO: $0.75
BTN: $1.15
SB: $0.81
BB: $1.48
UTG: $2.18
UTG+1: $1.38
Hero (MP1): $2.01

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is MP1 with A A
UTG calls $0.02, UTG+1 calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.12, 4 folds, BB calls $0.10, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.39) 2 J 7 (3 players)
BB bets $0.40, UTG+1 raises to $0.80, Hero folds, BB raises to $1.20, UTG+1 raises to $1.26 all in, BB calls $0.06

Turn: ($2.91) 4 (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($2.91) 9 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $2.91

BB is 30 / 5 / 1 over 57 hands, so loose passive
UTG + 1 is 50 / 25 / 2 over only 8 hands

1. Line check?

I figured if one passive player donks and other raises, I am looking at 2 pairs+ from at least one of them (normally that is the case). I got stacked with AA probably 10 times with this scenario. Single pair against this much aggression is like never good, right?

BB shows Q J (a pair of Jacks)
UTG+1 shows 6 J (a pair of Jacks)
BB wins $2.72
(Rake: $0.19)

Unreal :mad::stupid: worst read EVER by yours truly. Seriously, WTF.
 
S93

S93

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Meh. I jam over this all day.
Only player we really worry about here is the UTG+1 because the BB donk is so seldom strong here. and seeing UTG+1 is a tard I just pay him of when he has it but expect to see Jx,7xdx,fd,random 89/9Ts,88-QQ alot.
No 2 pair hands make sense here and there are only 6 legitmate and 3 discounted combos of sets out there.

Put it this way if BB doesnt donk and UTG+1 c/r you are you folding? Because I really can never give BB credit for much strength here.


Edit: Seen the results(which even if they are spoilered, just leave them out. They dont matter). I guess I really under estimate BBs strength here as he has TP. Still doesnt change my though. Not a lot of hands beats us in this spot so I just get it in.
 
LD1977

LD1977

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Yea but he is a passive player, those usually don't attack if they don't have something really good or they saw weakness on the flop from others in the pot.

Goes double for the raise.

When I was looking for my worst leaks I searched HEM for flop checkraises. Sure enough, I have lost massively when calling them.

So I am looking mostly at stats, if passives chkraise me I am inclined to fold even AA. If aggros do it then I stack off. Seems to be working well.

P.S. The results don't matter, but the fun factor is just too high not to share. I am not vain and if my misreading here can amuse people who can help me, it is a fair exchange. I just felt that my logic was sound yet this was the worst read I had so far in 55k hands played. Also from experience I "know" that even an overpair is not that much when passives start stacking off.

Problem is that I didn't really know these muppets so I just went with general logic.

Another thing - normally passives do not go for pot bets, they donk for like 1/3 pot so a pot bet and reraise (even a minimum one) really gave me pause. I would not have been surprised to see 2 pairs vs. a set here when they proceeded to stack off.

"there are only 6 legitmate and 3 discounted combos of sets out there" - Can you clarify this please?
 
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S93

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Pretty clear from stats that both these guys are fish. But sample is just way to small to say there passive(postflop that is).
Aggression stats take some time to converge and over 57 and 8 hands they are never gonna be truly accurate, hitting/missing 1 flop for example would skew them in this spot so we cant really be relaying just on that.
 
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DunningKruger

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"there are only 6 legitmate and 3 discounted combos of sets out there" - Can you clarify this please?

He's discounting the 3 combinations of JJ based on the pf action while the other 6 combinations of sets here are 3 each for 22 and 77. I made the same point in my reply to your PM (before this topic had any replies to it) and you can probably discount some of the other combinations a bit too in fact.

So that you know what we mean, the 3 possible combinations of bottom set on this board are 2s2c, 2s2h, and 2c2h. It's a way of looking at how likely a player is to hold a particular hand.
 
WVHillbilly

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They're both bad with less than 75bb before the hand begins. Never folding here.
 
LD1977

LD1977

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Thank you all very much for the explanation. It seems I gave these two too much respect this time.

I kind of (respectfully :D) disagree about discounting the JJ, this is exactly how I see it played from passive players (actually they even play AA like this, I kid you not).

Basically all pairs play very similarly in 2NL, it is common to see AA just call a raise preflop and check down to the river and THEN pop it All In or check raise All In on the flop regardless of how it looks like. There are quite a few examples where I set mined against some kind of minraise preflop and then on the flop after I bet my set someone reraises All In and sure enough every time it is AA.

These are just two examples of AA play in 2NL:
1. https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-game-hand-analysis-50/2-nlhe-full-ring-insane-hand-220045/ - Mega passive
2. https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-game-hand-analysis-50/2-nlhe-full-ring-overpair-kk-219869/ - Preflop passive then shoves AllIn on a dangerous flop
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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Thank you both very much for the explanation.

I kind of (respectfully :D) disagree about discounting the JJ, this is exactly how I see it played from passive players (actually they even play AA like this, I kid you not).

Basically all pairs play very similarly in 2NL, it is common to see AA just call a raise preflop and check down to the river and THEN pop it All In or check raise All In on the flop regardless of how it looks like. There are quite a few examples where I set mined against some kind of minraise preflop and then on the flop after I bet my set someone reraises All In and sure enough every time it is AA.

These are just two examples of AA play in 2NL:
1. https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-game-hand-analysis-50/2-nlhe-full-ring-insane-hand-220045/ - Mega passive
2. https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-game-hand-analysis-50/2-nlhe-full-ring-overpair-kk-219869/ - Preflop passive then shoves AllIn on a dangerous flop
Great that adds lots of combos that you beat as well since they could have QQ/KK as well. Stop making big folds at 2nl. Your winrate will thank you.
 
LD1977

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Erm, my largest single leak was actually NOT folding to flop aggression from passive players :)

You are right of course, although against multiple semi-unknown players normally things are a bit more problematic, no?

Maybe I should just treat unknowns as aggro fish until I get proof they are not? Hmmm I think we might be on to something here :D

P.S. I also came up with another explanation for this hand. They are both unknown to me but they know each other well. This explains pretty much everything. Yup, Sherlock Holmes level of deduction here :p
 
WVHillbilly

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Never folding AA in a pot with an SPR of 4 will be a great start.
 
LD1977

LD1977

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Um, yeah, about that. I heard about SPR and know what it means but have no idea how to use it.

(Don't forget, beginner here.)
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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It's just the ratio of the effective remaining stack to the preflop pot size. Here the remaining stack size is $1.08 and the preflop pot is .39. Therefore the SPR is 2.75. Folding any overpair or even TP here is almost always going to be a mistake.
 
LD1977

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So this can precede hand reading and opponent reading? (Of course I completely messed THAT up in this case, but nevertheless...)

Are there any firm (math based) guidelines about what to do in which cases in relation to SPR?
 
WVHillbilly

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So this can precede hand reading and opponent reading? (Of course I completely messed THAT up in this case, but nevertheless...)

Are there any firm (math based) guidelines about what to do in which cases in relation to SPR?
Any reads you have on an opponent should be used with SPR but at this small an SPR (under 4) getting all-in on basically any board against any opponent is never going to be wrong with TPTK+.
 
S93

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lol didnt even see they are both half stackers. This makes it even simpler.
Like WVH said just get that shit in. You have an over pair on a decent board vs halfstacking fish. Doesnt get more clear cut then that imo.
 
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AlwaysPlanAhe

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Something else to note which didn't end up being a factor but should be mentioned was that you didn't hold the ace of diamonds. That makes it much more likely one of the villains is holding some random AdXd thing and you can merrily ship the flop even more merrillillilly than if you had AdAx.
 
Nathan Williams

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I always just jam here. BB is a donk and full pot often means some top pair no kicker type hand. UTG+1 is basically an unknown so I am not going to give him any credit. If the board was a little bit more coordinated I might consider folding in this spot from time to time. Here, never.
 
LD1977

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Yes sir, understood :D

Now seriously - I am pleasantly surprised that the responses are very constructive overall, this is a very nice forum indeed. It is a pleasure to be here.
 
Deco

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Dont show results I'd cut the hand history off prior to your fold.

I always just jam here. BB is a donk and full pot often means some top pair no kicker type hand. UTG+1 is basically an unknown so I am not going to give him any credit. If the board was a little bit more coordinated I might consider folding in this spot from time to time. Here, never.

Ditto

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