$2 NLHE Full Ring: A set of 3s facing a turn shove

Alucard

Alucard

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pokerstars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 90.5 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 50)
MP: 98.5 BB (VPIP: 13.64, PFR: 11.36, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 96)
Hero (CO): 173.5 BB
BTN: 44 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
SB: 51.5 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
BB: 40 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3s 3h
fold, MP raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop : (10 BB, 3 players) 3c 7d 8d
SB checks, MP bets 9.5 BB, Hero calls 9.5 BB, fold

Turn : (29 BB, 2 players) Qs
MP bets 86 BB and is all-in, Hero??

I'll admit that I did not pay any attention to villains stats and only played my hand but did put the villain in a decent range.

edit - 6max not full ring
 
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KFlint

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Don't think you can fold bottom set with near 100bb effective stacks. It sure looks like a set and he looks nitty but I can't find a fold here. Set over set, one is going broke, move on! He's losing a ton of value if you doesn't have one here, the board is wet but jamming makes you fold almost all your hands.
 
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braveslice

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He still has KK and AA on his range, so 9 combos sets, 12 combos over pairs. Once in blue moon a draw.
 
Alucard

Alucard

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I didn't raise him because I wanted to keep him in the pot. He had a set of 8s.
So are we supposed to loose 100% of the time here if we play technically-wise?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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So are we supposed to loose 100% of the time here if we play technically-wise?
Yes, when you bash into the top of your opponent's range, you should lose.

Yet another reason why you need large implied odds (not simply 10:1) in order to set-mine profitably.
 
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KFlint

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A set over set on the flop happens roughly 1 time in 1000 hands on a 6-max table and 2/1000 by the time the river card hit (if you consider many pairs won't get to the river), would be silly not to put the money in all the time.
 
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braveslice

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Set over set probablity: Flop is KdTs2h, villain calls typical tight range {22+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,AQo+}, we hit set of 2, probability viallain has set 6/117 = 7.7%. If we hit second pair probablity villain has set 5.5%

Thus we could assume that in general set over set has 6% chance.

Did this in 2 minutes, so mistakes likely.
 
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Papier24

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Don't think this is a too difficult decision regarding stack sizes and hand strength. This is just a really easy call in my opinion. He might have a better set than you from time to time but folding this is just insane.
I believe he actually had a better set than you because otherwise you probably wouldn't have posted this hand (edit: just saw that you told us he had pocket 8). You just have to handle the fact that in poker sometimes you need to call a bet even though your opponent might have a better hand.
 
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