$2 NLHE Full Ring: 4bet-shove pre with JJ OOP as a shortstack

Luvart

Luvart

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I've been running very bad over the last two weeks about, and the last two days I've been playing without the auto-rebuy option.

In this situation I am left with 53bb:

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to Hero [Jd Jc]

fold, Hero: open-raises to 0.06$, Villain: 3bets to 0.18$, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB: calls, Hero: 4bet-allin to 1.11$

Villain's VPIP/PFR/AF/3bet: 12/7/40/3 at 460 hands
Villain's stack: 136bb

Is it a +EV play in the long run?
 
Q

quant1986

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Let's do some maths here - assuming SB will always fold

Tight 3bet range against EP open: Villain 3bet with {QQ+,AKo,AKs} and always call 4bet shove. You have 36.2% equity against this range.

$EV = 0.362*(1.11+0.18+0.02-0.01) + 0.638*(-1.11) = -$0.238

More aggressive 3bet range against EP open: Villain 3bet with {JJ+,AKo,AKs,KQs,AQs} and fold JJ/AQs/KQs but call with other hands

You have 36.2% equity against the calling range. There are 8 AQs/KQs combos and 1 JJ combo

$EV = 9/43 * (0.18+0.18+0.02-0.01) + 34/43 * (-$0.238) = -$0.16

So I think it is likely to be -EV unless villain has weaker hands or bluff like A4s-A5s in the 3bet range.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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That is some terrible math up there. You know we make money when they fold right?

Half stacked this is standard.

I’m surprised you haven’t been hit with the “always play 100 bb’s deep” advice everyone blindly follows. But in this case, it sounds like your reasoning for half stacking is flimsy at best. Unless you’re punishing LAG/deep stacked players that raise pre with too many 98s type hands, you should probably be full stacked.
 
Gohaku94

Gohaku94

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That is some terrible math up there. You know we make money when they fold right?

Half stacked this is standard.

I’m surprised you haven’t been hit with the “always play 100 bb’s deep” advice everyone blindly follows. But in this case, it sounds like your reasoning for half stacking is flimsy at best. Unless you’re punishing LAG/deep stacked players that raise pre with too many 98s type hands, you should probably be full stacked.
Like c9 said about the advise that everybody just blindly follows.. well there are the ones that understand why they do it and the ones that only follow it blindly cause it works. So just play with 100bb if you can afford it and don't have a solid half stack strategy which for 50bb JJ is an easy shove/call all in vs ONE person everytime. You are not only losing less with half stack but also winning less and you can't even call profitably for sets anymore (no way you can call a 3bet with 22-88).
Also if you are a winning player and you win 10pots/day and lose 8pots/day 100bb deep with only 50bb deep if you don't know what you are doing you might end up going like winning 3 and losing 5 because you are tighter and you are missing those suited connectors winning and sets cause you can't get into those situations anymore.
 
Luvart

Luvart

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Very good points guys. Thank you very much!
 
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