Originally Posted by BigCountryGB
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/6/19
Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4 (http://www.pokertracker.com)
UTG+1: 115.5 BB (VPIP: 30.12, PFR: 9.64, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 83)
MP: 130 BB (VPIP: 21.54, PFR: 6.15, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 66)
CO: 61 BB (VPIP: 15.01, PFR: 4.58, 3Bet Preflop: 0.90, Hands: 376)
Hero (BTN): 209 BB
SB: 46 BB (VPIP: 27.00, PFR: 14.14, 3Bet Preflop: 6.90, Hands: 100)
BB: 50 BB (VPIP: 46.70, PFR: 12.99, 3Bet Preflop: 3.68, Hands: 415)
UTG: 56 BB (VPIP: 22.45, PFR: 6.12, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 49)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A<font color='red'>♥</font> J<font color='red'>♦</font>
fold, fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold
Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) A<font color='black'>♠</font> 5<font color='red'>♥</font> J<font color='red'>♥</font>
MP bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB
Turn: (15.5 BB, 2 players) Q<font color='red'>♥</font>
MP bets 6 BB, Hero raises to 24 BB
Based on his PFR I put him on pocket pairs or broadways. With such high AF I figured he was betting with all his hands. Do you think raising the turn was the right play to try and get more money in the pot, or do you just call and let this player keep betting out?
What was villain AF?
I like the flat here with AJo against such a tight open from MP with SB and BB having small 3B%.
Flop is a raise pretty much always at 2NL, as you said his range is pretty much pairs and broadways in this spot...
Your like 85% against the above range and you can still get called pretty wide by a lot of his range. Very draw heavy board so you want to charge the flush and stubborn gut shot draws. Raising to around 15bb is the best play imo.
Turn is not the worst card given that you hold the Ah (which removes a lot of his heart combos) and the Qh removes a lot of the others, you are now really only worried about AQ, KT and sets. I think raising here though you don't get action with worse.
His range that calls a raise on the flop when this turn card comes is narrowed to roughly
JJ+,AcKc,AdKd,AsKs,AcQc,AdQd,AsQs,AcJc,AdJd,AsJs,A cTc,AdTd,AsTs,KcQc,KdQd,KsQs,KcJc,KdJd,KsJs,AcKd,A cKh,AcKs,AdKc,AdKh,AdKs,AsKc,AsKd,AsKh,AcQd,AcQh,A cQs,AdQc,AdQh,AdQs,AsQc,AsQd,AsQh,AcJh,AcJs,AdJc,A dJh,AdJs,AsJc,AsJh,KcQd,KcQs,KdQc,KdQs,KhQc,KhQd,K hQs,KsQc,KsQd
We have about 70% equity against that range.
Had you raised the turn however you would have had the initiative and could have bet about half pot here and called off to a shove. This would be my preferred play.