Originally Posted by skavenger
Yes my friend, bet for value on the river ... then I saw him play at position 33 , giving this raise 3x pre , but he hit his set on the flop ... so I think my fold was good .. .but wanted a second opinion about defending JT in sb against a button that opens 3x , looking a steal ... and call or fold on the river ... I agree with you , he must have 9x , some fulls , and little or no bluff or pocket pairs generally
If you just wanted a pre-flop opinion, you really need more info in order to give a good decision. In a wind tunnel with no info, it's ok to defend with if you're confident with your OOP play. Especially since you're closing out the action. If you don't think you can't win more than -50bb/100 there, then fold.
And as far as river decision, again, if we look at the combos he'll raise and have committed himself with, those out weight the times he has a boat and you're beat. But if you want to go w/ your gut here, then by all means. I think figuring out the probability will yield a much higher long term EV unless you can soul read real well.
There's going to be times you need to trust your gut (which is really just your subconscious trying to use your body to tell you it saw some things you didn't consciously process completely). But for myself, I tend to save those for the times I'm in live games and can pick up on more information and I use math and probability much more often in online games. I can't tell you how many times my 'gut' told me to fold, but the math said call or shove, and I did and won. Maybe I just need a gut check.