$2 NLHE 6-max: Can we profitably shove the flop here on an unknown?

Literally 4 hands in so no reads at all.

I decided to just "call"his daft min raise because I don't know the player type.

Anyway, when he over bets pot I find it very hard to believe he has anything other than an underpair here, certainly no Jacks+ and no queen here...

Do we just shove in this spot and expect to be good? It seems a very defensive transparent under pair bet or they could be wanting me to think that.


So...ok to shove or what's the best line?


pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (MP) ($1.97)
Button ($2.01)
SB ($1.87)
BB ($0.72)
UTG ($1.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 10 , 10
1 fold, Hero bets $0.06, 1 fold, SB raises to $0.10, BB calls $0.08, Hero calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.30) Q , 5 , 2 (3 players)
SB bets $0.40, 1 fold, Hero ??

Let's think this through.

You think your hand is best and you have position. Why do you want to make him fold by raising or shoving?

Raising will fold out worse and only get called by better allowing him to play perfectly.

Call or fold. It's a very strong line but a pretty dry board. I think I'd hazard a call and fold to further betting.

WVHillbilly said:

Let's think this through.

You think your hand is best and you have position. Why do you want to make him fold by raising or shoving?

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Good points. The thing is because his bet is so large that if I call this street it kind of commits us anyway in most cases and because I think he has an under pair I don't want to get away anyway, but obviously I could be very wrong here and he have over cards/over pairs. He's either going to call my shove here or check/fold the turn/river. I just think either way calling/shoving has the same result as he's either getting away from his under pair by check/folding the turn so we gain no more money by just "calling" his bet + he might think I'm mega weak by just shoving the flop with any overs or any under pairs?

Anyway, what's your line in this spot? What do you do personally if faced with this?

Deco said:

Raising will fold out worse and only get called by better allowing him to play perfectly.

Call or fold. It's a very strong line but a pretty dry board. I think I'd hazard a call and fold to further betting.

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Yeah..I know this but lets face it, if we know he's going to check/fold the turn for example isn't it better to get the chips in on the flop? This leaves us with more chances of getting his chips. One being that he can think we are shoving with over cards or there's a high chance he calls of his chips with his smaller pocket pair.

I beg to differ when you say it's a "very strong line" He min bets our raise pre he then over bets the flop..If I had Kings/Aces or even A,Q on this flop, you could bet smaller if your wanted to be called. If he's over betting because he's scared (A,x / niddle pairs etc) then sure we could well call but I think even for a player like this, unless he hits his ace or a set he's highly likely to check/fold turn/rivers almost everytime.

He knows we aren't floating with air by calling(This looks far to strong on, much stronger than shoving), at least with shoving it can look weak(bluff), can also look like over cards or like in my case a pocket pair, he could look us up as trying to steal and call of behind with his pair. You would seriously consider calling his massive over bet, to then fold the turn/river? Why not just fold the flop seems like massive spew to "call"





I just don't think he's putting more in the pot on the turn/river with an underpair/over cards unless he hits. I can't ever imagine him betting so much on this dry board with A,Q / Jacks +

Is my reasoning floored?

Do we just shove in this spot and expect to be good?

Expect? No! any big Q and u r toast. At this micro game u know any big Q in the SB is gonna be played. He doesn't know you either. You are making an assumption based on ether.

I'd favor a single come along call, as much for wanting to develop some read on any player who is seemingly agro as for wanting the pot. If an undercard comes I re-evaluate.

As I sit at a new table, with no reads, the only read I can make is stack sizes, and that is always nearly useless unless a player has a stack many times the max buy-in. In this case even that read is useless. So you have no read and want to shove to an overcard and an agro player? To what end?

I maintain u don't have enough (any) info to expect a micro villain to even have a clue, and for that reason alone, the shove is overly risky.

Call, and re-evaluate the turn.

dj11 said:

Do we just shove in this spot and expect to be good?

Expect? No! any big Q and u r toast. He doesn't know you either. You are making an assumption based on ether.

I'd favor a single come along call, as much for wanting to develop some read on any player who is seemingly agro as for wanting the pot. If an undercard comes I re-evaluate.

As I sit at a new table, with no reads, the only read I can make is stack sizes, and that is always nearly useless unless a player has a stack many times the max buy-in. In this case even that read is useless. So you have no read and want to shove to an overcard and an agro player? To what end?

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As I've stated, it's highly unlikely he's over betting A,Q/Jacks + here.

Besides which, I think calling isn't of any good, burning like a 1/4 of my stack just to await him to check/fold turns/rivers or bet/bet if he hits.

I personally just think it looks far more stronger calling rather than raising/shoving here...and he's never putting more money in the pot unless he hits the turn/river. Shoving the flop looks weaker and potentially the best chance I have of getting all his chips.

you said we have no reads yet you are willing to stack off with 2nd pair here. He min 3b pre and overbet into 2 players. What makes you think he doesnt have a strong hand here?Do you think he is betting so big when he has to call a bb shove? Readless i would give him credit and just fold.

The problem with calling is you might only have 2 outs. You are putting in about 25bb which is on the commitment threshold.

If he has a hand you think he has which readless im not sure you you determined that, i dont think he will stack off with it anyway. 99 here wont be looking to get stacks in. Shoving you get called by better, calling your are risking a lot.

I would just give the unknown credit because his line looks strong and fold.

IF you think he has a underpair or is bluffing, shoving is the worst possible thing to do you are folding out all those hands and getting called by hands that beat you. Just fold flop vs unknown they are rarely betting pot or more with less than top pair you dont need to get into marginal spots at 2nl.

Why are you so adamant you're underpair is good in this 3way, 3bet pot?

I guess maybe I play somewhat different to others and try mix up the game a bit I dunno.

By the way, I never said I shoved - I was asking if it's profitable to do so in this spot.

Aldito - do you seriously think every 3bet pot pre means your villain is only 3betting tight even if you have little history on them? Firstly his 3bet is minimum....secondly...his over bet on the flop kind of tells me he's weaker than say, over pairs here.

Maybe would lose value by shoving, but like I say maybe I just play differently and think it looks weaker shoving over and more likely to get called lighter and IF he has overs/underpairs then I'm not getting more of him on the turn/river.

Anyway not to worry, thanks for the input...not sure I agree 100% but will take comments on board!

ramdeebam said:

if we know he's going to check/fold the turn for example isn't it better to get the chips in on the flop?

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Theoretically if we knew villain has air and won't double barrel with it here we would be best removing his equity and raising the flop.

We don't know this, unless you can see his cards this is not a read you can gain from 4 hands. Every scenario other than the one you have described suffers from this line.

Assuming worse never calls, your putting in $1.77 to win 70c. You need to make him fold 71% of the time to breakeven. We have showdown value why turn our hand into a bluff like this?!
If we are to call 40c to win a 70c pot with the intention of folding the turn we need to win 37%. This is lower risk and it's only pit fall is being double barrelled.
If you think he will double barrel his air you can call both streets and make more money from air than had you raised.

ramdeebam said:

He knows we aren't floating with air by calling

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No he doesn't. He has played 4 hands with us.

ramdeebam said:

I beg to differ when you say it's a "very strong line"

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Generally
Min 3bets = strong
Multiway bets = strong
Overbets = strong.

ramdeebam said:

Come up the pooooool!!!!

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You from Liverpool?

Deco said:

No he doesn't. He has played 4 hands with us.



Generally
Min 3bets = strong
Multiway bets = strong
Overbets = strong.

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Deco said:

You from Liverpool?

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Well what I mean is, someone "calling" 40c bet from a 30c pot, you would have to assume that they are in most cases not floating imo..yeah floating for 1/2 maybe even 3/4 pot size, just can't see how one vs an unknown would float here.

In general your right but micros people don't know much about bet sizing and quite often you see playeds making daft bets of like 88c in a 22c pot with middle pair etc.

Like I say, I appreciate all the replies etc, I guess I think differently in most cases than the general standard thinking terms of hand lines.



Hmmm, no not liverpool - look at my avator picture, might give you a clue

ramdeebam said:

Firstly his 3bet is minimum....secondly...his over bet on the flop kind of tells me he's weaker than say, over pairs here.

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Which is exactly how a $2nl donk plays an overpair every time

Deco said:

No he doesn't. He has played 4 hands with us.

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And it's $2nl so he doesn't even consider what you're holding.

i had this same situation but i had top pair dude in in big blind raised 40 in a 10 cent pot everyone told me i was beat too but i had a low kicker so..its ok. but i think id call and see wat he does next sometimes they wont fire a second barrel cuz if you call such a high bet i think theyll slow down den you can see weakness

ramdeebam said:

Hmmm, no not liverpool - look at my avator picture, might give you a clue

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Poole then?
lol dunno how I missed that.

stop over thinking things and fold, it is 2nl, he min 3bet, he overbet flop, he is telling you he has you beat, why won't you listen?

Because this is 2nl and at one end of the spectrum check my other thread on the kings I held, people will shove worse and love to bluff. I folded because I felt it was right, but was told "This is 2nl, cal"

If I folded out like this all the time, I'd be losing lots and people pushing me all over. Besides which I just had a feeling it was played poorly and the usual play by people at 2nl is smaller better, rather than shoving and letting you catch up when they give you the right price.

I am only a beginner here.I know 2nl has a lot of bad player and do something illogical.

But here is what my thoughts. Unless I get a very strong reading on him. I will not bother to confuse myself. He 3bet pre and bet large flop. We have medium pair. I will just fold.

One line I am thinking a lot recently is that " If you fold a medium strong hand you are not making a big mistake". I think this is right for a beginner as I usually will be confused in this situation.Thinking too much is not good for beginner to make the right dicision. Now it is better to make it simple .

Of cause you guys have advanced thinking.

puke said:

.

Of course you guys have advanced thinking.

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FYP.

Don't be so sure about this.......While a lot of players around here understand more scenarios about the game, how each of us deals with it can be very different.

If we just concentrate on the title question of this thread, I would answer no. We can not profitably shove a middle pair (over the long haul) vs an unknown (assume no reads). It might be close over the long haul, but my gut tells me it is unwise.

ramdeebam said:

Because this is 2nl and at one end of the spectrum check my other thread on the kings I held, people will shove worse and love to bluff. I folded because I felt it was right, but was told "This is 2nl, cal"

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Not the same at all.

*KK is stronger than TT.
*TT is an underpair here KK is an overpair there.
*We see a showdown with the KK hand immediatly, we face further betting and further scare cards in this hand.
*We have less money commited in this hand/ s smaller stack to pot ratio.

Judging from your posts I'll take a guess and say you are basing your call based on the absolute value of money your being asked to put in rather than viewing the big picture.

Don't think your going to be pushed over at 2NL. You'll get bluffed from time to time but all the money to be made at this stake is from value towning, not bluff catching with marginal hands.

Deco said:

Not the same at all.

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This. How can you compare the two hands at all?