This is a discussion on $2 NLHE 6-max: Villain ships with over cards on Flop. My move? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Positive EV, was this just variance?
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database
NL Holdem $0.02(BB)
this all depends on villain. In this case it is correct call as he has 3 outs //excluding runner runner, but bigger stakes and better opponents it is a fold because the can have sets 44 22 or higher pocket pairs jj qq kk. Versus weak opponents and fishes is a call. gl
February 8th, 2018, 5:18 PM
Poker at: ACR,BOL,
I think, as played it is a call. You had another response which tried to analyze the hand from the result backwards. He said "in this case it was a call because he had 3 outs" -well we did not know that at the time.
This is now an issue at 2 NL many people are "short-stacking" 30-50 BB and then just shoving the flop or turn hoping for folds. Table selecting is important but you can't always find a table with full stacks so you have to try and build a range for Villain.
He cold called your 3x open without raising. So depending on STATS you have or experience with this player. You can probably rule out the strongest of hands, I would consider medium pairs and broadway cards, maybe suited connected cards. This is the problem with opening A 10, out of position but since you did, when the flop comes 10 high without a flush draw and you bet and Villain shoves his remaining 35 BBs or so. I think you have to call some of the time that you have top pair, top kicker. If you always call you will lose to sets and 2pair hands too often and if you always fold people can shove any 2 and make money off of you. The only way I know of how to balance this spot against a short-stack is to go by my history with the player. If there is no history or stats then call any of your hands that have a little better equity like a gut-shot or back door flush draw and fold the hands that are just a bare top pair??
Just my opinion- and use equilab to begin to construct ranges.
February 8th, 2018, 5:34 PM
Game: NL Holdem
re: Poker & $2 NLHE 6-max: Villain ships with over cards on Flop. My move?
This is just variance and the hand is played fine. You raise with a suited broadway Ace from LP over a single limper which is absolutely fine.. Your c-bet is completely standard here too. Now when villain shoves, what is he representing? Not 44/22, why blow you out of the hand? 2P, highly unlikely. AA/KK/QQ maybe even JJ would have 3-bet preflop. So that leaves overs as the most likely or just a stone cold bluff trying to blast you out of the pot on what looks like a board that shouldn't hit your hand. Against a range that is just overs you are at least a 75% favorite and even better against random bluffs. So this is just variance and you should play this type of hand the same way everytime.
February 8th, 2018, 6:40 PM
Poker at: ACR,BOL,
I was just playing around with the equity calculator on Drive-HUD, I see that you are using Drive-HUD also. The calculator is a great tool built in to the software.
For this exact situation being fairly generous building a range for Villain. I think it is safe to assume that you would be close to 80-20% to win this hand. The odds to call bet 1.2 to 1 or 44% So the math says you can call every time. I do not think I am calling every time as I stated before.
I am hoping to get a winning "reg" to give me their breakdown. I too am seeing these situations more and more often due to short stack strategy.