$2 NLHE 6-max: Villain donks the flop with a pot sized bet. We are open ended with an underpair.

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darpblog

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$2 NLHE 6-max: Villain donks the flop with a pot sized bet. We are open ended with an underpair.

Hi guys, first day playing cash games, grinding my way from the bottom. Very first hand I have this situation, What am I to assume when a fish donks for pot size in the micros? I'm playing the snap(zoom) tables in 888 so I won't have access to HUD stats.

888 Poker - $0.02 NL (6 max) FAST - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 60 BB
SB: 41.5 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 7)
BB: 50 BB
Hero (UTG): 40 BB
MP: 149.5 BB (VPIP: 23.73, PFR: 18.64, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 60)
CO: 51 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 9

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) T 7 8
SB bets 7 BB,

Hero?
My question is :In this situation, in this types of tables, can we expect to be ahead a good amount of the time? or more likely than not we'll be drawing? I guess if I assume that my opponent always have top pair or better, I should be folding with only 10 outs until the river? is this correct or is it too weak of a play? But if my opponents are likely to bluff with a draw or donk with worse than a 10, then suddenly I am a big favorite. How should I be making those judgements?
 
Verdue167

Verdue167

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Seven hands is a bit too little to make proper judgement. Folding here is not unwise, it's only 3 bb. Generally, i would be wary about pot size donk bets from big fish. Smal (1bb) donk bets are often draws (though some fish play top pair A+ weak kicker like that)
 
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Jimboskie

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There are a lot of hands he could have that you are ahead of. Call and see what the turn brings. Not really deep enough to chase a straight however. Keep what he does in mind and take his chips later on.
 
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braveslice

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“What am I to assume when a fish donks for pot size in the micros?”

Use action based deduction and use range reads only secondary. Just minimal intro, but build on it: passive fish bets weak = he is weak, drawy board he mostly has a draw from gut to open ender but also TP weak kicker and any pair really he wants to protect. Passive fish betting large = he has the goods, or in this case TP or Overpair. Passive fish don’t barrel strong like ever without goods, however they mostly always barrel weak bet sizes mostly 3 streets too. If fish call your raise, he will mostly call to the end.

Unfortunately aggressive fish are different kinds, but mostly large lead is weak starting from over cards if flop is low. They do check river like always without reasonable good hand (but their idea of strong hand differs, like TPBK might be 3 barrel for them), so the most important decision is river, flop and turn with medium hand has no really meaning against them, the profit is made on the river, call/fold/raise OTR is where you make the money.,

Also his stack size is enough to say he is fish, not to mention he donks, not only he donks but he donks pot size. All 3 are marking fish 90% combined, we get he is a fish 210% :p Then we add VPIP and probablity he is fish is astronomical, and we are happy enough to know this with 70% accuracy or so. We can't say if he is aggressive or passive though from presented stats, but they probably are there to read from hud.
 
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