$2 NLHE 6-max: Turning the set to a bluff?

About the V. Decent player I guess. Small sample 34/21/40!!!(3bets way too much from the blinds)
Previously 3bet me from the SB & played passive post flop. So he has something here.
Should I turn this to a bluff??

partypoker - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BB: 99.5 BB (VPIP: 27.55, PFR: 16.70, 3Bet Preflop: 6.21, hands: 14,484)
UTG: 114.5 BB (VPIP: 28.19, PFR: 15.76, 3Bet Preflop: 5.60, Hands: 14,887)
CO: 198.5 BB (VPIP: 28.24, PFR: 15.68, 3Bet Preflop: 5.54, Hands: 14,802)
Hero (BTN): 115 BB
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 28.36, PFR: 15.90, 3Bet Preflop: 5.66, Hands: 15,511)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7c 7h
fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, SB raises to 10 BB, fold, Hero calls 7 BB

Flop : (21 BB, 2 players) 6s 5h 7s
SB bets 15 BB, Hero calls 15 BB

Turn : (51 BB, 2 players) 8s
SB bets 36 BB, Hero calls 36 BB

River : (123 BB, 2 players) Ts
SB checks, Hero ??

disregard the stats shown below as they are wrong

In a small sample, 40% 3-bet might be 2 out of 5. He just 3-bet again, which is more evidence he's 3-betting light. I'd factor it into my decision making - he may have suited connectors. But take it with a grain of salt.

Either way, what does he have here? Bluffs are most effective against top pair. Players are much more reluctant to lay down overpairs or 2 pair or better.

If this board were any wetter it would be a body of water. He probably doesn't have top pair, since the card needed to make top pair has changed on each street.

He also probably doesn't have the nuts, or we would expect a river bet.

You have middle set, so your hand has showdown value against two pair, overpairs, or lower sets. I think we are too likely to be beaten to semi-bluff or bet for thin value here. I'd check.

P.S. I've found PT4's support to be helpful and knowledgeable in the two encounters I've had with them. Any progress on the hand count issue?

I wouldn’t even dream about turning this a bluff in 2NL, even though I agree that that it’s interesting idea.You have already shown that he has major problems in his game making him quite unpredictable, so we have to go by the general tendencies where calling too much is the number one mistake on this level, making bluffing large quite uninteresting.

In personal level he seems to have aggression mistakes in his game, making your hand to win quite much, even with board like this, if he decided to bet for protection.

First, I am fine with pre.

On the flop, raise. Raise. The hand is so difficult to play after the turn.

We just fist pump getting it in on the flop, or dude folds and we move on. Hopefully he has red AA, and we stack him.


As for your question, no, we do not bet river, as played. We could even raise the turn here, maybe, but you should have played it fast on the flop. Whole hand plays easier. He isn't likely to fold now.... we just check back and lose alot.

Like WTF does this guy have anyway. We should be applying max pressure on the flop. Get it in, and it's whatever after that.

Beanfacekilla said:

First, I am fine with pre.

On the flop, raise. Raise. The hand is so difficult to play after the turn.

We just fist pump getting it in on the flop, or dude folds and we move on. Hopefully he has red AA, and we stack him.


As for your question, no, we do not bet river, as played. We could even raise the turn here, maybe, but you should have played it fast on the flop. Whole hand plays easier. He isn't likely to fold now.... we just check back and lose alot.

Like WTF does this guy have anyway. We should be applying max pressure on the flop. Get it in, and it's whatever after that.

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Chances of the villain having straight or flush draws on the flop are low, especially since he 3-bet pre and would need low cards in his hand for a straight draw.

Therefore I wouldn't want to chase the villain away on the flop.

Villain's range narrows considerably on the turn. As Alucard says, he's got something. But hero is still probably ahead. I think the case for a 3-bet by the hero is stronger there than on the flop, though I wouldn't. I'd still want to keep the villain in the hand in hopes of extracting more from him on the river.

The river card is just unfortunate.

AlexTheOwl said:

Chances of the villain having straight or flush draws on the flop are low, especially since he 3-bet pre and would need low cards in his hand for a straight draw.

Therefore I wouldn't want to chase the villain away on the flop.

Villain's range narrows considerably on the turn. As Alucard says, he's got something. But hero is still probably ahead. I think the case for a 3-bet by the hero is stronger there than on the flop, though I wouldn't. I'd still want to keep the villain in the hand in hopes of extracting more from him on the river.

The river card is just unfortunate.

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We aren't raising the flop to get value from SDs. We are raising to get value from FDs and overpairs. This guy has loads of hands he doesn't fold prob, and we want to avoid tough decisions on future streets (like this runout).

The board is too wet. Many turns can kill action as well. So, we raise. My opinion only of course.

Beanfacekilla said:

We aren't raising the flop to get value from SDs. We are raising to get value from FDs and overpairs.

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Whether you get any value from a raise depends on how much of a calling station villain is, and whether villain thinks hero might be 3-betting with a relatively weak hand.

Villain has a VPIP of 34 in a small sample size, and hero has an aggressive table image. These factors favor your argument. I'd still call, but your line is very reasonable.

Alucard said:

disregard the stats shown below as they are wrong

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When you copy your hand history is there an option for "set stats to session" or something along those lines?

I almost always check back here. 2NL or not. We have 39 bbs in a 123 bb pot. I like pre but I think we need to raise flop or jam turn. villain has overpairs/two pairs/Asxx/flushes/9x that will get it in. Off the top of my head I think we are in decent shape here.