$2 NLHE 6-max: turn x/r by relative unknown, fold overpair?

D

doomasiggy

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 24, 2011
Total posts
1,915
Chips
0
PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 47 BB
SB: 46 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 1)
BB: 119 BB (VPIP: 6.67, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
UTG: 267 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
MP: 118.5 BB (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
Hero (CO): 138.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J:diamond: J:spade:

UTG raises to 3.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 10.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 7 BB

Flop: (22.5 BB, 2 players) 8:spade: 7:club: 7:diamond:
UTG checks, Hero bets 16 BB, UTG calls 16 BB

Turn: (54.5 BB, 2 players) 9:spade:
UTG checks, Hero bets 31 BB, UTG raises to 240.5 BB and is all-in, Hero
 
B

byrnsiey330

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 17, 2014
Total posts
88
Chips
0
You still have top pair, which is hard to throw away at this point. But if I were the hero I would fold. These are the hand that get you in trouble. I put him on the hand JT, 77, A7, K7, TT+, and depending on how loose this player is Q7. JT is less likely seeing as you already hold two of them in your hand, all the other hands fit his betting sequence. You get beat all of those hands except TT. Too many connectors, and most likely trips.
 
U

Ubercroz

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 8, 2009
Total posts
653
Chips
0
You still have top pair, which is hard to throw away at this point. But if I were the hero I would fold. These are the hand that get you in trouble. I put him on the hand JT, 77, A7, K7, TT+, and depending on how loose this player is Q7. JT is less likely seeing as you already hold two of them in your hand, all the other hands fit his betting sequence. You get beat all of those hands except TT. Too many connectors, and most likely trips.

Why are those the only hands that he has?

It couldn't ever be 66 or 55 or AQ or AJ, or just straight air? or even 89 where he hit two pair as well?

I think you are not giving the villain a range but rather just thinking of hands we lose to.

I'm not convinced this is a straight up fold, but I would like to know why those hands specifically are the hands you think the villain has.
 
Creepy Jackalope

Creepy Jackalope

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 19, 2013
Total posts
214
Chips
0
That is a great spot for a turn all-in bluff/semi bluff. But at 2NL I'm not sure you're seeing that too often.

As played, I don't think I find a call here. He's an unknown player, so probably should give him SOME credit for the UTG open.

The pre-flop flat is a little odd.. stinks of KK, QQ, JJ type hands.

TT is a real possibility. An overpair with extra outs now that he's open ended.
 
W

Wardy88

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 14, 2009
Total posts
110
Chips
0
PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 47 BB
SB: 46 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
BB: 119 BB (VPIP: 6.67, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
UTG: 267 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
MP: 118.5 BB (VPIP: 10.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
Hero (CO): 138.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J<font color='red'>♦</font> J<font color='black'>♠</font>

UTG raises to 3.5 BB, fold, Hero raises to 10.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 7 BB

Flop: (22.5 BB, 2 players) 8<font color='black'>♠</font> 7<font color='black'>♣</font> 7<font color='red'>♦</font>
UTG checks, Hero bets 16 BB, UTG calls 16 BB

Turn: (54.5 BB, 2 players) 9<font color='black'>♠</font>
UTG checks, Hero bets 31 BB, UTG raises to 240.5 BB and is all-in, Hero

I like the re-raise pre flop, we would expect villain to be 4-betting a big raise like that with KK+ most of the time, we will also get flat calls from a lot of hands that we are ahead of, that combined with future position in the hand is a good proposition I think.

The flop bet is good, we are folding out all of villains trash though, which isn't too bad, I think villain is calling with some under-pairs, any random 8, 99 and TT (though these are being raised some of the time). I believe villain will let you know if they have QQ by raising here. Villain may be trapping with 88 or A7 also.

Ok so when we get check raised on the turn, we need 41% equity to call. That means villain needs to be capable of making this check raise with a whole bunch of suited Ax hands and air. I think that is fairly unlikely at this level.

I think the fold is good.
 
D

DunningKruger

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 7, 2013
Total posts
1,030
Chips
0
You can pretty much advise the best play based on the thread title alone in this case.
 
H

hffjd2000

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 6, 2014
Total posts
2,329
Chips
0
I think youre beat. Have to fold.
You have two pair but he has higher two pair.
He might even hold trips.
Few hands you beat according to his betting.
 
Arjonius

Arjonius

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 8, 2005
Total posts
3,167
Chips
0
Fairly easy fold. You'd have to call about 210bb into a pot holding about 320bb. It doesn't seem sufficiently likely that you beat enough of his shoving range for calling to be +EV.

There's also a meta-consideration. If he's shoving a worse hand here, you can reasonably expect that more / better chances to get his money will come along.
 
B

byrnsiey330

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Feb 17, 2014
Total posts
88
Chips
0
Why are those the only hands that he has?

It couldn't ever be 66 or 55 or AQ or AJ, or just straight air? or even 89 where he hit two pair as well?

I think you are not giving the villain a range but rather just thinking of hands we lose to.

I'm not convinced this is a straight up fold, but I would like to know why those hands specifically are the hands you think the villain has.

His pre flop betting sequence lead me to believe those were the hands that he had. I guess 55 and 66 sort of fit this sequence, but I don't see the villian calling 16 BB with low pair. I also don't see anyone 3betting with 89 preflop. And if he does, then good for him. I guess I'm not very good with catching bluffs. So I guess if you think he's bluffing then call?.. but I'm going to fold and keep my 240.5 BB.

If you honestly disagree I would love to know why, always trying to improve. What did I miss that lead you to believe those hands were in his hand range?
 
U

Ubercroz

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 8, 2009
Total posts
653
Chips
0
Fairly easy fold. You'd have to call about 210bb into a pot holding about 320bb. It doesn't seem sufficiently likely that you beat enough of his shoving range for calling to be +EV.

There's also a meta-consideration. If he's shoving a worse hand here, you can reasonably expect that more / better chances to get his money will come along.

You actually have to call 81bbs for a chance to win 198. The odds are better than you think.

Your second point is spot on. Just because it might be a good spot doesnt mean we have to call here.
 
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

King of Moody Rants
Bronze Level
Joined
Feb 20, 2008
Total posts
7,150
Awards
5
Chips
6
This is a spot to snap-fold and feel good about it. He's an unknown, ie we can't just put tons of air in his range at 2nl when he x/r the turn on a wet board. He has tons of trips and boats in his range, and probably some straights as well. The only air he should ever really have here is like FD + GS or FD + OESD, and he might not even jam those.

Ofc he IS an unknown, so we don't KNOW this - we have to go based on the play of the population.
 
U

Ubercroz

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 8, 2009
Total posts
653
Chips
0
His pre flop betting sequence lead me to believe those were the hands that he had. I guess 55 and 66 sort of fit this sequence, but I don't see the villian calling 16 BB with low pair. I also don't see anyone 3betting with 89 preflop. And if he does, then good for him. I guess I'm not very good with catching bluffs. So I guess if you think he's bluffing then call?.. but I'm going to fold and keep my 240.5 BB.

If you honestly disagree I would love to know why, always trying to improve. What did I miss that lead you to believe those hands were in his hand range?

In 6max I would not be suprised to see someone raising UTG with a small PP. I think his bet calling is somewhat telling, its not likely to be a tremendously premium hand. Based off what this guy is doing we should make a few assumptions. He is either bad and lucky, calling a 3bet OOP, or he is somewhat thinking and is calling deep stacked with implied odds. Both are reasonable guesses to make. He could also be bad and is calling with AK or KQ or something strange like that.

He called our bet on the flop, so he is either calling to steal the turn or he has some piece of this board. Pocket pairs all make sense and some of the time so does 89 or 78 even 56 somehow. I would never remove those hands as possible, for a number of reasons. The best one is that people do dumb things sometimes- even good players.

the turn comes a 9 and we get check raised. A check raise is almost always a big hand. Or at least a hand the check raiser believes is good. That limits it to sets, 2pair, full house and a straight. This is not likely to be a flush draw often, but sometimes it is.

the largest combination of hands in that range means that two pair is the most likely single holding (more combos of 89 than anything else). Though its not a big margin and we are still likely losers here. However, we have to call 81 bbs to win 198 bbs. So how often does this need to be a 2 pair for this to be a profitable call? If we add in the potential flush draw, the straight draws, and the rare but occassional air we get closer. I havent worked through that math, but I imagine it is closer than you think.

Im not saying its a call, I am saying it is not as fast a fold as other people think.

Arjonius' argument is probably the best when in this kind of situation in game - if its a bluff or a bad value bet then we will get his chips later.

I may discect this a little more later to really run the numbers, but its worth thinking about.
 
Folding in Poker
Top