Originally Posted by byrnsiey330
His pre flop betting sequence lead me to believe those were the hands that he had. I guess 55 and 66 sort of fit this sequence, but I don't see the villian calling 16 BB with low pair. I also don't see anyone 3betting with 89 preflop. And if he does, then good for him. I guess I'm not very good with catching bluffs. So I guess if you think he's bluffing then call?.. but I'm going to fold and keep my 240.5 BB.
If you honestly disagree I would love to know why, always trying to improve. What did I miss that lead you to believe those hands were in his hand range?
In 6max I would not be suprised to see someone raising UTG with a small PP. I think his bet calling is somewhat telling, its not likely to be a tremendously premium hand. Based off what this guy is doing we should make a few assumptions. He is either bad and lucky, calling a 3bet OOP, or he is somewhat thinking and is calling deep stacked with implied odds. Both are reasonable guesses to make. He could also be bad and is calling with AK or KQ or something strange like that.
He called our bet on the flop, so he is either calling to steal the turn or he has some piece of this board. Pocket pairs all make sense and some of the time so does 89 or 78 even 56 somehow. I would never remove those hands as possible, for a number of reasons. The best one is that people do dumb things sometimes- even good players.
the turn comes a 9 and we get check raised. A check raise is almost always a big hand. Or at least a hand the check raiser believes is good. That limits it to sets, 2pair, full house and a straight. This is not likely to be a flush draw often, but sometimes it is.
the largest combination of hands in that range means that two pair is the most likely single holding (more combos of 89 than anything else). Though its not a big margin and we are still likely losers here. However, we have to call 81 bbs to win 198 bbs. So how often does this need to be a 2 pair for this to be a profitable call? If we add in the potential flush draw, the straight draws, and the rare but occassional air we get closer. I havent worked through that math, but I imagine it is closer than you think.
Im not saying its a call, I am saying it is not as fast a fold as other people think.
Arjonius' argument is probably the best when in this kind of situation in game - if its a bluff or a bad value bet then we will get his chips later.
I may discect this a little more later to really run the numbers, but its worth thinking about.