$2 NLHE 6-max: turn decision with a flopped set on a wet board

pokerstars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players

UTG: $2.56 (128 bb)
MP (Hero): $1.22 (61 bb)
CO: $1.87 (94 bb)
BU: $9.68 (484 bb)
SB: $2.23 (112 bb)
BB: $8.98 (449 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is MP with K♠ K♦
UTG raises to $0.04, Hero 3-bets to $0.14, CO calls $0.14, 4 players fold

Flop: ($0.35) A♥ 3♥ K♣ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.20, CO calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.75) J♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.88 (all-in), CO calls $0.88

This is literally my first session after more than a 3 years layoff from poker beside few CC freerolls.
For those who dont know me i used to play shortstack, 40-50bb, that is why i didnt had full topup at the beginning of the hand.

Anyway, i was a bit reluctant on a turn cuz it completed every possible draw that he could have there and i wasnt sure how often would he be on turn with a made hand instead of a good draw, he did flat 3b she could have been bad but had 0 info on him...

No HEM on this computer so no statistic on him or on anything other....

Would love to hear opinions

I would play this the same way. We are obviously never going to fold second set, just because some draws came in, and with you stack size rivers can become pretty awkward, especially if they bring a 1-liner to the straight or flush. So I am also just getting it in on the turn, and then come what may.

Also how many straights and flushes does he realistically have here? The only sort of reasonable flush is KQ exactly, and if he cold called a 3-bet with QT, then his range is extremely wide, and you are way ahead of, what he is going to be stacking off. Any two pair, AQ with the Q of hearts etc.

I kinda reasoned that the only hand that was logical for him to have there that beats me is KQhh, didn't saw him having any other hearts combo that would flat 3b there (I might giving an unknown 2nl to much credit here, he could be a fish that flat calls any SC here, i couldn't know....). He could also have any KQs, AJs or one heart broadway. I was definitely planning to stackoff turn considering my stack, was thinking of x/r but didn't wanna let him check back and see the river so I decided to just jam and at least appear weaker if possible.

Not much you can do with this stack size, you may get called by AxQh, and AJs, KJs.

Assuming he's a tight player, the range I would put him on preflop would be AA, AKs, AQs, AKo, AQo, and QQ-TT. If he's loose he could have something like KQs KQo, AJs, AJo.

If you look how you fare against that range on the flop you are in good great shape against everything but AA and KhQh. AA is a bit less likely given he didn't 4bet preflop. Your play seems fine to me.

MungBeans said:

Assuming he's a tight player

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Its 2NL, he cold called a 3-bet, and he did not start with a full stack. All this indicate to me, that he is probably fishy. Even at 2NL decent regulars dont often cold call a 3-bet, because its typically not the best play, and they almost always use auto top-up. So they never start the hand with 94BB. This is one of the most reliable non-HUD fish tells, you find online.

Since the hand ended up in a forum, I sense, he probably had some weird straight or flush and shipped the pot. But if his range is wide, then he also have many other hands, we are still way ahead off, and fish love to play the sheriff. Especially against this overbet on the turn many fish will go "this guy is a bully, he is not going to bluff me, I am calling him down with my A8". This is especially true at 2NL, since the money mean nothing to most people, who play for fun.

fundiver199 said:

Its 2NL, he cold called a 3-bet, and he did not start with a full stack. All this indicate to me, that he is probably fishy. Even at 2NL decent regulars dont often cold call a 3-bet, because its typically not the best play, and they almost always use auto top-up. So they never start the hand with 94BB. This is one of the most reliable non-HUD fish tells, you find online.

Since the hand ended up in a forum, I sense, he probably had some weird straight or flush and shipped the pot. But if his range is wide, then he also have many other hands, we are still way ahead off, and fish love to play the sheriff. Especially against this overbet on the turn many fish will go "this guy is a bully, he is not going to bluff me, I am calling him down with my A8". This is especially true at 2NL, since the money mean nothing to most people, who play for fun.

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Can I ask you, why do you think cold calling a 3-bet is typically not the best play?

Because you are not getting a good price, you get no fold equity, and your range become very narrow, so its easy for your opponent to do hand reading and outplay you after the flop. In this case he was also not closing action, so someone behind could 4-bet, in which case he might have to fold and not even see a flop.

In this exact spot in the CO facing an UTG open and a HJ 3-bet, the only hands, that you can sort of reasonably cold call would be QQ, KK and AK. This mean then, that when you 4-bet, you have only AA, AQs and AKs, so both your ranges become extremely narrow and predictable. For that reason it might be a better strategy to 4-bet QQ-AA, AQs+, AK and fold everything else.

Thank you, that makes sense.

With your stack size, bet bigger on the flop, and shove turn. Ez game.

John A said:

With your stack size, bet bigger on the flop, and shove turn. Ez game.

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Good to see you again John :rock:

@Fundiver
really good point on flat 3bet, definitely a bad position to be at with medium holding and facing a 4 bet. Won't automatically assume someone as a fish with <100bb stack, i play short stacked and i dont consider myself as a fish Tho back then when i played 10NL on microgaming had plenty of calls cuz am a shortstack fish

Definitely interesting approach with the assumption that since hand ended up on the internet something crazy happened, but that's not the case, here is full HH

poker stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $2.23 (111.5 bb)
BB: $8.98 (449 bb)
UTG: $2.56 (128 bb)
Hero (MP): $1.22 (61 bb)
CO: $1.87 (93.5 bb)
BTN: $9.68 (484 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K K
UTG raises to $0.04, Hero raises to $0.14, CO calls $0.14, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.35) A 3 K (2 players)
Hero bets $0.20, CO calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.75) J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.88 and is all-in, CO calls $0.88

River: ($2.51) 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $2.51 pot ($0.09 rake)
Final Board: A 3 K J 5
Hero showed K K and won $2.42 ($1.20 net)
CO showed A 8 and lost (-$1.22 net)

So he did in fact have the A8

This was exactly my point: If he is bad enough to have QT and especially all 16 combos of it, then he is also bad enough to have a lot of bad aces, and to not ever be able to get away from top pair, so we are still doing just fine.

As for fish tells I am not looking to offend anyone, but the vast majority of solid regulars do buy in full today, so not starting with a full stack is a fish tell. As was confirmed here by his hand, because of course no good player cold call a 3-bet with A8s.

But of course as with any tells, there are exceptions. Maybe 90% of all short stackers are bad, so if you are among the 10%, who are not, please dont get offended by this generalisation

And ditto for the assumption, that when a hand end up in a forum, it was probably a bad beat. People do tend to post a lot of bad beats and coolers, but again there are of course exceptions, and this hand was one of them

Before finding out the hand, I figured villain would have Ax with 1 heart. Turns out his holding wasn't even that strong. I probably play this exactly the same as you...figuring almost any A at these stakes is probably coming along, i mean...how can you fold top pair medium kicker?

kkonicke said:

Before finding out the hand, I figured villain would have Ax with 1 heart. Turns out his holding wasn't even that strong. I probably play this exactly the same as you...figuring almost any A at these stakes is probably coming along, i mean...how can you fold top pair medium kicker?

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Especially at 2NL a lot of players cant. The money at stake is insignificant, and they almost take it as a personal insult, if you raise them or make big bets. Or they are just really simple level 1 thinkers. They see their top pair and dont even really consider, what their opponent might be holding.