$2 NLHE 6-max: Simple plan turned into a mess by maniac

R

RVladimiro

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PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: $2.49
Hero (BTN): $2.00
SB: $2.00 33/10 very small sample but didn't look spewy. Few showdowns showing AQ KQ etc which he called with and didn't 3bet. It sounded like a weak nit at the time to be honest.
BB: $2.00
UTG: $5.07 63/38 small sample but more than obviously a aggro fish. Everytime he bluffed the river he showed the cards and needled the villain. Didn't take more than a orbit to figure him out.

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has 9:heart: T:heart:

UTG raises to $0.10, CO calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, SB raises to $0.40, fold, UTG calls $0.30, fold, Hero calls $0.30

I called the aggro fish UTG open because his range is wide and if I hit anything on the flop I'm willing to call his 3 street bluffs. Any pair, two pair, straight or flush are more than ok to call any bet of his unless he suddenly starts to bet small.

The 3bet from the (in my mind) nit on a heater from SB is just added value because my read is that he has nothing smaller than QQ.

Flop: ($1.32, 3 players) 5:heart: 7:heart: 9:club:
SB bets $1.00, UTG raises to $2.00, Hero???

As I see it SB nit is value betting his big pair. I really can't take my mind that's what he has. The raise from the UTG aggro fish means very little to me since he can have a draw even bigger than mine, a pair or most likely air but I get really confused with my odds right now.

I have to call 1.60 into a 4.32 and pretty sure the SB will call with his remaing 0.60 so it's a 1.60 call to a implied pot of 4.92. I have to be right around 1/3 of the time. I'm sure I'm behind SB and I'm most likely ahead of UTG and any 9, T or heart will probably give me the best hand. Odds sound right but folding sounds much better.

Under the clock, what is the rationale to call or fold here?
 
jbbb

jbbb

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You can't call SB's raise to try and hit two pair the odds aren't there. You'll flop two pair or better 5.6% of the time which you need to stack off comfortably if you think he has QQ+. If you're willing to stack off on a flop like this you have a 18% chance of flopping a combo of OESD + pair or pair + FD etc.
On this flop vs. an overpair you have

Code:
    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     51.414%      51.41%     00.00%              12216             0.00   { JJ+ }
Hand 1:     48.586%      48.59%     00.00%              11544             0.00   { Th9h }
enough equity to stack off if you think the others will fold due to the dead money (will UTG really fold for $1 more though)

Code:
Hand 0:     31.263%      30.99%     00.27%             594345          5274.00   { JJ+ }
Hand 1:     43.275%      42.77%     00.50%             820368          9634.50   { Th9h }
Hand 2:     25.462%      24.68%     00.78%             473442         14908.50   { 99+, 77, 55, A9s, A7s, K9s, T9s, 97s+, 95s, 75s, A9o, A7o, K9o, T9o, 97o+, 95o, 75o }
If UTG calls with two pair, sets and weak top pair/ pair with straight draw our equity shoots up and we have to call.

I dunno what i'd do preflop. I might just call with the T9s but its the bottom of my range because i'd prefer broadways (such as K9+,QT+) which make weak top pair kind of hands.I don't know if i'd want to invest another 30BB when SB repops it.
 
R

RVladimiro

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I see your point about PF but T9s is more than flopping a two pair. So I guess the big question is: I had to call 0.30 to a 0.90 pot. Is 3:1 good for a medium suited connector against a strong range and a aggro fish IP?

Looking at my plan PF I think I just HAD to call the aggro fish raise that put me all-in, I just wasn't counting on it. I felt I had to call because I had flopped an almost perfect draw, better than that only straight flush draw but the raise really got me unconfortable.

Situations like this are the worst to me. When I have a plan but find out my plan didn't take into consideration all possibilities.

Before I posted I ran over PokerStove and the results were:
Me 45.228%
Nit 35.752%
Aggro fish 19.020% with a wide range of 22+,AKs,A9s,A7s,A5s,KQs,K9s,K7s,K5s,QJs,Q9s,Q7s,Q5s,J9s+,J7s,J5s,T7s+,T5s,97s+,95s,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,43s,32s,A9o,A7o,A5o,K9o,K7o,K5o,Q9o,Q7o,Q5o,J9o,J7o,J5o,T7o+,T5o,97o,95o,86o,75o,64o

But let's be serious and honest... I couldn't compute that range in realtime, right? :D That's why I want to hear what my fellow CCers have to say.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Fold to the squeeze, lolsnap flop. You have a monster.

Seriously though, don't rely on implied odds, both from tight ranges or from aggro/bluff-heavy ranges. Especially when you're putting in like %20 of your stack pf. You're hemorrhaging money.
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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tbh i wouldve just folded to the first raise preflop but that could just be me being a nit
 
acky100

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I would of too bgomez. Was a nice chance to try and see a flop mw though with a maniac in the hand, especially with a hand that plays well mw in unraised pots.
 
R

RVladimiro

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So we are all agreeing that it's a fold to a squeeze but an east call to the flop shove.

I'm such a fish, I was thinking the other way around...
 
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