$2 NLHE 6-max: set vs 3bet

Villain 26/21/14
149 hands

Villain hasn't been out of line and it's not often i consider folding a set.But i dont think AK AQ check the flop here very often and if they do check,do they then raise the turn?. How often do i see AA QQ here and can i consider a fold ?.

Cheers.


Hero (CO): $4.09 (204.5 bb)
BTN: $2.02 (101 bb)
SB: $2.00 (100 bb)
BB: $2.64 (132 bb)
UTG: $2.09 (104.5 bb)

SB posts $0.01, BB posts $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has 9♣ 9♥
fold, Hero raises to $0.06, BTN raises to $0.18, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.12

Flop: ($0.39, 2 players) 4♣ 9♦ A♥
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($0.39, 2 players) Q♥
Hero bets $0.19, BTN raises to $0.72, Hero?

Pretty gross spot. I'm not sure I could fold my set here, but I think you're up against a better set. Nothing else really makes sense. Big aces should bet the flop, hands that missed should bet that flop. KK isn't checking that flop and raising the turn. The only thing you really beat is a weird AK or maybe 44? Did you find a fold? I think its the right play even for 2NL.

I wrote out a long analysis but accidently clicked off the page and it removed my post.

The TLDR was that in 3 bet pots, it's common for people to check the flop for pot control, and also for value if they think Villain won't call a flop bet without an ace. Or will only call 1 street. By checking flop, we can bet turn and river for value.

I am never ever folding this set there, especially at 6max where the aggression factor is higher than fullring. I think given Villain's stats he turns up with 44 or 2pair or worse often enough here for it to be hugely +EV.

TheGenera1 said:

I wrote out a long analysis but accidently clicked off the page and it removed my post.

The TLDR was that in 3 bet pots, it's common for people to check the flop for pot control, and also for value if they think Villain won't call a flop bet without an ace. Or will only call 1 street. By checking flop, we can bet turn and river for value.

I am never ever folding this set there, especially at 6max where the aggression factor is higher than fullring. I think given Villain's stats he turns up with 44 or 2pair or worse often enough here for it to be hugely +EV.

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That being the case AK AQ aren't getting a turn raise called by worse and AK wouldn't take this turn line .And those will mostly bet the flop while 44 likely isn't in a Btn 3bet range 100bb deep. I actually do think it's a spot im meant to go broke but the hand just seems so face up to a bigger set.

You really can't ever fold this set here unless you know villain is a huge super nit, which from his stats he doesn't appear to be. I do think we need to look at this 3bet range, which is easily 10%+ on the button. I just think we're ahead here so often. I'm never ever folding this, and I'm the sort of person always looking to make big laydowns xD

Also, will just say depending on your own stats, he could be 3betting all manner of cards. I'm not sure what your stats are but if you have a high fold to 3bet, I'd be raising you with all kinds of garbage.

Guessing from your post he turned up with pocket QQ?

I get the logic here, but the flop check changes everything. You check that flop after 3-bet pre because you hit top set or your big pair hates the ace. If you 3 bet light, you continue on that flop. If you're pot controlling, then the only hand you raise the turn with is AQ. I think its more likely you're up against AA or QQ. I'm not someone who looks to lay down sets, but I think you can here.

I heard from a little bird that calling 3bets OOP only 100 bb's deep against a non-shitty player is a leak.

You can't fold a set in a 3-bet pot, cram it.

c9h13no3 said:

I heard from a little bird that calling 3bets OOP only 100 bb's deep against a non-shitty player is a leak.

You can't fold a set in a 3-bet pot, cram it.

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Calling baby pairs would certainly be a leak but 99 is well within a co calling range vs btn,you have to have a defending range vs 3bets even oop it's just tighter than ip.

TheGenera1 said:

Guessing from your post he turned up with pocket QQ?

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I folded and like i say i dont look to fold sets very often and it's a spot i should go bust.But everything about villains line including raise size is just completely face up to AA QQ here imo so i made the exploitble fold.

Yeah there is definitely room for these sorts of lay downs. I personally, am more included to fold sets only in a limped pot or against a flat pre flop from nits who raise on a dry board. Would lay down bottom set only though, and only against uber nits.

Fvendal said:

Calling baby pairs would certainly be a leak but 99 is well within a co calling range vs btn,you have to have a defending range vs 3bets even oop it's just tighter than ip.

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If you never called a 3bet OOP, you wouldn't be missing out on much value. I'd rather 4-bet than call a 3-bet OOP.

Folding postflop is setting money on fire. You made the best hand you could possibly make.

I would guess: AK – 0.1*{12}=1.2, AQ = 0.2*{9}= 1.8, 44 = 0.2*{3} = 0.6, AA = 1*{3}, QQ = 1*{3} = 3, randomstuff = 0.15*{12.6} = 2

better_comp=5.6, worse_comp=9, win=5.6/(5.6+9)= 38% , hero needs about = 1.5/4 = 37%, given rake imo we can fold, however I would personally go for stacks given his stats are active enough for me. I mean there are many guesses in my math, but his basics stats say he is active and the positions most active/aggressive too. Also we could give some hands much higher (like AK) probability.

c9h13no3 said:

If you never called a 3bet OOP, you wouldn't be missing out on much value. I'd rather 4-bet than call a 3-bet OOP.

Folding postflop is setting money on fire. You made the best hand you could possibly make.

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You cant defend enough if your 4bet or folding vs 3bets oop without being massively inbalanced or overfolding.Theoretically this is never a fold but i just have to trust my judgment in the hand for better or worse.

braveslice said:

I would guess: AK – 0.1*{12}=1.2, AQ = 0.2*{9}= 1.8, 44 = 0.2*{3} = 0.6, AA = 1*{3}, QQ = 1*{3} = 3, randomstuff = 0.15*{12.6} = 2

better_comp=5.6, worse_comp=9, win=5.6/(5.6+9)= 38% , hero needs about = 1.5/4 = 37%, given rake imo we can fold, however I would personally go for stacks given his stats are active enough for me. I mean there are many guesses in my math, but his basics stats say he is active and the positions most active/aggressive too. Also we could give some hands much higher (like AK) probability.

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I kind of discount AK checking the flop that often and if it does i dont think it raises on the Q turn as it's actually a very bad card for AK. I do agree i should likely go broke here but i just went with my judgment on villains line and raise size.I might of been wrong to fold but like i say it's not often i fold sets especially in a 3bet pot.