re: Poker & $2 NLHE 6-max: Semi bluff on opponent who is very tight
Not sure if I am too happy about a turn bet. It looks like you could be drawing dead. Even a river bet is risky. Based on his tightness I'd be surprised if you get any more money out of him if you had hit your flush on the river. Maybe KQ with the Q being a spade, but I think he has a lot of full houses in his range and you are in bad shape. When the river misses you have to hope he has AA or AK otherwise he'll call. Even with AA or AK he might not fold.
If you give him a preflop calling range of roughly:
He'll call a flop bet with:
He'll call a turn bet with:
He'll call a river bet with:
Not much of his range is folding a turn bet. Pretty much QTs. Also you have to assume some probability that he gets married to AK or AA, because that happens a lot. I am aware that in my range assigned above some of those hands are likely raising on one street or another so it is a bit off, but I think that his range is still way too strong to be bluffing
at. Slowplaying a fullhouse is not unpopular in spots like these at 2NL.
I think a better line would be to bet the flop bigger, check the turn and go for value if you hit your flush. You are much more likely to get value from a flush on the river if you check the turn. If you miss on the river then I believe you should just give up.