$2 NLHE 6-max: River plan bet/fold with a set – deep

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braveslice

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Q: My plan on the river was bet/fold, do you agree?


VPIP 2/15, PFR 2/15, RFI 2/9, CB 2/2
PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 270 BB
SB: 106.5 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 7)
BB: 210 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
UTG: 142.5 BB (VPIP: 17.19, PFR: 14.06, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 64)
MP: 92.5 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 100.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
CO: 221 BB (VPIP: 7.14, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 3 Q J
CO bets 4.5 BB, Hero raises to 15.5 BB, CO calls 11 BB

Turn: (38.5 BB, 2 players) A
CO checks, Hero bets 28 BB, CO calls 28 BB

River: (94.5 BB, 2 players) A
CO checks, Hero bets 47.5 BB
 
c9h13no3

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I bet/call myself. If he has AQ/AA, it's a cooler. AK may find his way to the river, same with JJ.
 
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RunningLikePluto

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You have a boat [emoji571]*♀️ please never fold here if raised. ESP at micros. Fist pump snap if crai
 
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braveslice

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Fancy play syndrome it seems then.

Not many sets villain has, he must be man of steel to slowplay flop.
 
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EllinLucky

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I have a question.Why you didn't reraise CO on the preflop?

I think I'll check behind on the river.
 
liuouhgkres

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pre-flop 3-bet for sure, you are way ahead of CO range here. On the river you should never fold with QQ here, Ax hands are much better for bet-fold line.
 
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braveslice

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I have a question.Why you didn't reraise CO on the preflop?

I think I'll check behind on the river.
Well that was a misclick, even though I seem to do those accidentally relatively often. Reasons to consider not to 3bet, in parallel university (obviously) would be highlighted in blackrain’s blog posts. Also in this case I played too deep to my comfort, so scared money might have been influential reason here too. After I got over 6BI stack I felt fine again, a psychological twitch after too much money I felt I'm ok to lose some too =)

I too was considering check behind.
, Ax hands are much better for bet-fold line.
Good point! Even though nit like me don't have many Ax here, there are still some.
 
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How can you even consider checking back here with a full house in the micros ? Or how can you even consider folding if you get raised on the river ? Not saying that you're never behind but what ? I'm actually pretty confused. You only have 14 hands on this guy, so you have also almost no information.
There is still a decent amount of hands you beat when you get raised by a TAG. Against a random player in the micros this is a situation where you wanna get as much money in the middle as possible.

Edit: You pretty much only get beat by AQ/AA. Maybe A3,AJs of diamonds. You block AQ and Aces are not very likely too. He can have quite a few trips here if he called you with the Ace high flush draw. He also can have 33 or JJ. I would really like to know why you think folding is even a choice.
 
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braveslice

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I would really like to know why you think folding is even a choice.
Well after hard work supported by comments I was able to widen his shove range, to be like this: {AJ (6), AQ(2), JJ+33 (2), AK(2) } + 10% randoms (2) -> hero has 43% equity and we can call the shove

We have: pot 2.84, shove 3.49, to call 2.54, odds neede: 28%
Actually my mistake seems to be not to realize that only 28% was needed to call, but also with my personal view about the range he shoves its break even at best to call. It seems my idea of his range was too nitty but to be honest the range above is something I have still hard time to understand.

{AJ (6), AQ(2), JJ+33 (2),} + 10% randoms (1) : 27% equity

Btw 15 hands and is our villain lag? most probably not. Is he fish? no. agro= no. agro fish=no, bad reg who calls too much instead of raising=most likely not. Then we combine it to the fact 80% of player pool are regs and category reg is still left (he is deep too, deep players are good tight aggressive ones + lag/passive fish). So a reg who is not passive caller. We know what villain is with high probability, and also we are happy to know it with 70% confidence and even if we would get it wrong that mostly would mean that he is something similarish, just a bit more aggressive or passive version of him.
 
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$2 NLHE 6-max: River plan bet/fold with a set – deep

c9h13no3; said:
. AK may find his way to the river, same with JJ.


JJ is most certainly finding its way to this river 100/100 times at micro stakes online NL. Flopped middle set just isn’t going anywhere. Guys, you don’t have to play your opponents until somewhere around $200NL, or probably more accurately at $400NL. Until then, just play cards.

Ever wonder why $100NL and below are infested with bots? Because it’s a very simple/solvable matching game until one reaches mid-high stakes, at least online.

As a side note, it’s very depressing to think about the stage of online poker at present. The action is thin, the bots are everywhere, and tablescripting/bumhuntjng+the increasing percentage these rooms are sucking out of the poker ecosystem via rake and lack of rakeback are a recipe for the dwindling number of recs and softish online games. Even gloomier is the thought of where this once great enterprise will be by 2020
 
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braveslice

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@RunningLikePluto I suggest hand analysis section is for hand analysis only and so reporting next one. Only commenting your 100/100 JJ, there is no chance in hell that normal reg would always just call 2 streets with set on a scary scary board. I would do it only when distracted or villain super agro and even against super agro only like once in blue moon.
 
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$2 NLHE 6-max: River plan bet/fold with a set – deep

Lol, ok. What exactly is so scary about this board for someone holding JJ in a raised pot? Flops middle set, turn card not a 3rd diamond, and the only 3 hands ahead of his JJ would be your QQ, AA, and some dimwit with KT. (Until the river where he would fill up) Regs below 100NL, but especially at 2NL-10NL are not EVER folding the 4th best possible hand, especially when they hold the pf and flop initiative thanks to your lack of a 3 bet preflop. IF you are (folding JJ in this spot), then I can assure you it’s a leak and it’s affecting your BB/100.
 
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Papier24

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Btw 15 hands and is our villain lag? most probably not. Is he fish? no. agro= no. agro fish=no, bad reg who calls too much instead of raising=most likely not. Then we combine it to the fact 80% of player pool are regs and category reg is still left (he is deep too, deep players are good tight aggressive ones + lag/passive fish). So a reg who is not passive caller. We know what villain is with high probability, and also we are happy to know it with 70% confidence and even if we would get it wrong that mostly would mean that he is something similarish, just a bit more aggressive or passive version of him.
So yes I agree with you that he probably isn't a aggro fish since his stats suggest that he knows at least sth. about preflop hand strenghes. But you can't allow yourself to classify this player as such a nit with only 15 hands information. Even really agressive players could easily get a VPIP of 7 for such a short periode when they're only getting garbage hands.
As I said at the end of the day this is a random 2NL player who probably isn't an aggro fish. You can't expect that such a player plays perfect poker, that's why you can't give him such a nitty range IMO. Yes, if you get raised on the river he represents a monster hand but sometimes some beginners go over the top here with some trips. There's enough footage of the best players in the world doing weird bluffs too. As already mentioned you even beat some weaker full houses. I think if you really have alot of information on your opponent you could consider folding to a shove (Even then I would rarely fold) but in this situation your hand is simply way(!) too strong.

That's just my opinion. I'm still considering myself as a beginner though but I played alot of 2NL. How did the hand actually end ?
 
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Thx Papier23, I agree what you said. I might read too much from stats, but for my defense having a plan, even wrong plan makes sessions more enjoyable. Just a note that I only used stats to say his most likely play style category and then used general level specific behavior. So I did not read from villain's stats directly he being tight, just the general category.

He called with KQ suited or unsuited, highlighting both views imo a) calling mistakes against aggression are dominating not really counter aggression. For his defense when I bet river too my range is super tight from his point of view, I don’t have mostly QQ,JJ,AQ,AJ. Still me having Adxd or 33 is one of the most reasonable hands. He is blocking straight and also me betting 3street for value is not 100% sure b) Also this supports the view that ranges are wild, and I could call the AI.
 
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$2 NLHE 6-max: River plan bet/fold with a set – deep

braveslice; said:
He called with KQ suited or unsuited



See above.
 
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braveslice

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See above.

Calling a raise = Hero bets then villain bets even more and hero calls
Calling a shove = villain shoves, hero calls. In this case it would mean that after hero bets river, villain would put all the money in and hero calls.
Raised pot = Preflop hero opens, villain 3bets, and hero flats (or 4bets and villain flats, I guess is possibility too)
Mostly if it's not clear from the content, just calling an open is referred as calling open or calling open raise, or just hero flats.

These namings come from the fact that cash games online there are not many limped pots.
 
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braveslice

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Quite complicated those namings, I think there are quite many mistakes.
I just tried to figure can we call limp-then isolation raise as a raised pot. It seems so, UTG limps, funnily enough this can be also called, UTG bets =) , hero raises to 10bb. So surely this goes to category raised pot. It seems that also open raise is is enough to call hand as a raised pot.

Referring the range analysis though, given we did not 3bet ranges are still very wide on late position. Usually when ranges are discussed raised pot refers to case where we see a 3bet, as a term to separate them to normal 2bet pots. Honestly after reading the terminology does not make lots of sense. I mean raised pot can refer to a) someone limps and then comes isolation raise b) someone does normal open raise c) someone 3bets. Actually only thing that is not included is a unraised pot where everyone is limping. Why make terminology that does not tell anything argh.
 
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Limping is never also called betting, before the hand is dealt the blinds have a forced bet, then if one limps, they’re calling the big blind.


Someone limps-> isolation raise-> call= Single Raised Pot or Raised Pot

Open->3bet->call= 3bet (3!) Pot.

But I was saying see my above post about never giving microstakes opponents credit for the goods here and GII 100% of the time.
 
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But I was saying see my above post about never giving microstakes opponents credit for the goods here and GII 100% of the time.
Oh I get it now. Due my not so perfect English I understood you said calling ranges are wide.

“Limping is never also called betting, “

Yeah I would not do that myself ever either. Jcarver or someone else should rally people together and make international naming organization project for poker naming and at the same time remove illogicalities.

Here are some references:
https://www.thoughtco.com/limp-2728232
“open limp is when the first player to enter the pot preflop bets only the amount of the big blind, the minimum bet.”

https://www.pokerstrategy.com/glossary/Bet/
“A bet is one possible action a player can take if there are no bets on the table. To bet is to make a wager. A player can only bet if nobody else has bet. If there is already a wager on the table, then he needs to match that existing bet, although he can raise the wager if he wishes.”

It seems to boil to the same wonderland about why first proper raise pre is called 3bet.
 
Beanfacekilla

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Q: My plan on the river was bet/fold, do you agree?


VPIP 2/15, PFR 2/15, RFI 2/9, CB 2/2
PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 270 BB
SB: 106.5 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
BB: 210 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
UTG: 142.5 BB (VPIP: 17.19, PFR: 14.06, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 64)
MP: 92.5 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 100.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
CO: 221 BB (VPIP: 7.14, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 3 Q J
CO bets 4.5 BB, Hero raises to 15.5 BB, CO calls 11 BB

Turn: (38.5 BB, 2 players) A
CO checks, Hero bets 28 BB, CO calls 28 BB

River: (94.5 BB, 2 players) A
CO checks, Hero bets 47.5 BB

Yeah dude just not folding here ever.

Once we C/R flop, bet turn, he just flats turn. This pretty much indicates to me you are way ahead, and this dude is just calling anything.

Funny thing is, I don't know what he has really. He doesn't have JJ, he doesn't have K-10 he would have raised you on the turn, I think this river is a good one for ya, because he could very well have Ad-Xd, and he is paying off like a good slot machine.


If he clicks it back on the river, yeah I just call whatever. It's whatever. If he wins, he wins.

"If he dies, he dies." Drago, Rocky 4.
 
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braveslice

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Ok the results are in, 5-1 calling the shove wins easy. Quite overwhelming result given we have the 12th nuts on a board no-one really wants to bluff. I do my best, but it's a bit harder than I thought. Don't forget the reason I asked; the plan seemed too nitty. Anyways from 70-30, I'm now 60-40. Good job everyone, thx.

@Bean I hope click back is not meant to be a click back (a move I learned to exist from your blog just couple of days ago) . And also Rocky would never do a suicide ;) [3 beers talking]
 
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Beanfacekilla

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Ok the results are in, 5-1 calling the shove wins easy. Quite overwhelming result given we have the 12th nuts on a board no-one really wants to bluff. I do my best, but it's a bit harder than I thought. Don't forget the reason I asked; the plan seemed too nitty. Anyways from 70-30, I'm now 60-40. Good job everyone, thx.

@Bean I hope click back is not meant to be a click back (a move I learned to exist from your blog just couple of days ago) . And also Rocky would never do a suicide ;) [3 beers talking]


Bolded part? Wait, what?


When I say "if he clicks it back", I just mean if he raises you.
 
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braveslice

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Bolded part? Wait, what?

When I say "if he clicks it back", I just mean if he raises you.

Yeah, I got it. My comment was just referring to your blog topic, post number 834: “Now I realize you would min click it back, and that is totally new way to play for me”
 
Beanfacekilla

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Yeah, I got it. My comment was just referring to your blog topic, post number 834: “Now I realize you would min click it back, and that is totally new way to play for me”



Oh yeah I remember that one! Thanks for the reminder.
 
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