$2 NLHE 6-max: Reraise on turn?

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Supmargy

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PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 139.5 BB (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 15)
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 111 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 26.67, 3Bet Preflop: 22.22, Hands: 15)
BB: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J:diamond: J:heart:

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 5:spade: 2:heart: 6:heart:
BB checks, Hero bets 3 BB, BB calls 3 BB

Turn: (11.5 BB, 2 players) 4:club:
BB checks, Hero bets 7 BB, BB raises to 20 BB, Hero calls 13 BB

River: (51.5 BB, 2 players) 3:spade:
BB checks, Hero checks

BB shows A:diamond: 9:diamond: (Straight, Six High)
(Pre 31%, Flop 14%, Turn 11%)
Hero shows J:diamond: J:heart: (Straight, Six High)
(Pre 69%, Flop 86%, Turn 89%)
Hero wins 24.5 BB
BB wins 25 BB


Should i have reraised on the turn here? I didn't dare at that time fearing a set. Although i would have expected a check raise on the flop if he had one.
 
AlexGrinStar

AlexGrinStar

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I would not do ... in its range it could well be 3, better pot control...
 
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kozong

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when he raise turn, can A3 & 78 be in his range?

would you call a big bet on a J river?
 
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Supmargy

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when he raise turn, can A3 & 78 be in his range?

would you call a big bet on a J river?
I think i would.
My reasoning is this: If he has those hands in his range (33 could be one as well), then he has a lot more of different hands as well. Which makes it less likely for him to actually have those. And if im ahead most of the time, its a call right?
 
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AlexTheOwl

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On the turn, 6-7-or maybe 8- high straights, sets, and pocket pairs from 88 to AA are all in the villain's range.

You don't have many hands against this villain. According to the PFR and 3-bet stats, villain has not been especially aggressive pre-flop, and you didn't mention anything about seeing the villain being aggressive post-flop in any other hands.

So you have no particular reason to think the villain is bluffing, and almost all of the hands that the villain would re-raise for value are cards that beat you.

After the villain re-raises the turn there are 38.5 BB in the pot, and you need to call 13 BB to continue, so you are getting ~ 3:1 to call. If this was the end of the action, then you would need to think you are ahead of the villain 1/3 of the time here to call.

That may seem almost reasonable, but this is not the end of the action. You may face another big bet on the river, and there are only two cards in the deck - the other two jacks - that would improve your hand on the river.

I'm not at all comfortable that I'm ahead here. And if the villain isn't bluffing then they probably have straights, sets, or big pocket pairs. There's an excellent chance that they would call your re-raise with those hands. Again, there is really no reason to think the villain is bluffing here, other than the fact that bluffs happen sometimes.

If I'm not confident that I am ahead, and I think the chances of a bluff are low, and the chances of the villain folding to a re-raise are low, then there is no reason for me to invest more chips in this pot.

I don't raise the turn. I fold it. I'm glad it turned out well for you though!
 
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