$2 NLHE 6-max: QQ MP 3-handed Pot in position? Which line to take?

c0rnBr34d said:

Well played. I think calling flop is the most difficult play to make here but I also think it is correct when we are 3 ways and block hearts. Raising may seem like the easy way out on the flop to many but I think it just allows any decent V to fold a lot of their range correctly when behind and commit our stack when we are behind unless an A, K, heart hits and we can somehow get away. With less than a pot sized raise left on the turn I also like the jam with top set. Even if he somehow has the T9 we have 10 outs to boat up. All the other hands we have crushed, although hearts have some equity. Gross when they hit the one outter on the river. Hang in there man.

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gustav197poker said:

I agree with all your thinking. But in this case sb and utg have signs of recreational players. Against them we can induce bluffs in utg. This villain can block an important part of our range. For this reason we can use our overpair, to charge a higher price in this place, protecting our queens in the flop.

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c0rnBr34d said:

First, what does it really mean when we say that these guys are both recreational players? In my opinion this only means that they are not professional. It does not explicitly tell us that they have a particular weakness that we can exploit by raising flop. If we had a specific read that they were loose, or sticky, then I would be more in favor of building a pot quicker. Some players call too much, some players fold too much, they can both be recreational. Before we decide to raise we should think about how they will likely respond.

Here we are already in a protected 3 bet pot in position and with a short stack and a healthy stack. We can still get it in by the turn as we did here since we are in a 3 way 3 bet pot. By raising flop we can reduce our EV by getting Jx to fold and maybe smaller flush draws or AK, AQ, TT, JT, there are a LOT of combos that will continue to put money in if we just call flop that may otherwise fold if we raise flop. Also if they were going to make the mistake of calling the raise on the flop with just a flush draw then they are likely to make the same mistake on the turn only this time it is for all of the chips. We also get to pot control on bad run outs. I think it's natural to want to over protect your QhQx here but in reality I think there are very few flushes to worry about and very few over cards to worry about. So we can still play close to perfectly and extract more value by keeping Jx, TT, 99, and heart draws, in by flatting flop. This also has the added bonus of letting us catch up to hands that have us beat like T9, or 87, or a set. Also, some of the so called rec group don't have a 4 bet range and could show up here with KK or AA for UTG. By raising flop we are narrowing UTGs already strong range to the hands that are more likely to have us beat. If UTG has a hand like AKhh or AThh they have just as much equity as we do, so it will be much more +EV to eval turn before committing our stack.

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gustav197poker said:

But when calling on the flop we are increasing the range of speculative hands in utg, which implies greater variance in the long term. If we can get it on the flop, it can never be deficient considering the texture of the board. From small boats, extracting cash value is a positive strategy, especially when there are more than 2 positions involved. If we reach 4bet-flop then we have a very close fold in nl2.

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c0rnBr34d said:

This may seem counter intuitive but I think we drastically reduce variance by calling flop. If we raise flop and get called I think we are mostly facing either hands that have us beat already or hands that we are flipping a coin against (Ahxh, Khxh). This is not the range we want to get our stack in against. By calling we keep in hands that we have crushed like Jx and can still get away from the hand if the turn is bad. Also, those coin flip hands that miss the turn are now likely 2:1 underdogs on the turn where our raise is much greater +EV.

Which hands do we expect to call our flop raise that we have crushed? Without a read that UTG is super wide pre, since we are in a 3 bet pot he should be snap folding Jx or worse when we raise flop. I can't think of any naked flush draw in a three bet pot without an overcard or gutter ball straight draw to go with it so in this case we aren't really ahead anyway, the equities are pretty much even so we aren't charging the draw we are just building a pot and hoping they make a horrible call with Jx or worse or hoping we win a coin flip against a combo draw. So we increase variance by building a huge pot without an equity advantage and reduce it by trying to correctly evaluate turn and make the right move on the turn or river.

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gustav197poker said:

The more active players there are in one hand, the more variance we have in the game. If we raise the flop, there are some hands that can be removed and some combos that arrived and defeated us. But punctually analyzing this sequence, there is a covered player and if we consider a uniform criterion, there are many combinations that have no pure value and can float on this board. Against that bluff range we can print money. Jx; A-8; A-K; Q-J; K-J Etc. Therefore, this is a place where we can test open calls, out of position.

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c0rnBr34d said:

In general I agree that we should be attacking weak looking capped ranges with strong hands in position for value. I feel like in this case we are well ahead of the range we want UTG to continue putting money in with. If we are behind though, we are way behind. And the critical part from my perspective is, that there are too many hands that UTG should be calling / raising with here where we are actually slightly behind. By raising the range you listed above I expect to get folds almost every time unless they also have heart draws. And if that is the case, we are putting in money from behind (equity wise). If we think they are bad enough to call with those hands then they will still be bad enough to call on the turn when we have a much more profitable raise against a much larger portion of their range.

I changed some cards to just look at some equities from hands I would expect to call our flop raise, and those aren't hands I want to play against for stacks because we are either very narrowly ahead or behind. Equities can change drastically on each street though. With the luxury of position, I prefer to call flop and eval. I think it limits our losses without limiting our wins too much, although we may occasionally be outdrawn or make a folding mistake. I don't think it's fair to assume UTG will stack off with Jx here in a 3 bet pot so our reason for betting is just to fold out the weak part of his range and play against the strong part of his range that mostly has us beat. Instead, if we flat we can get more from the weaker part of his range and improve our odds against missed flush and straight draws significantly. Not to mention occasionally hitting bingo and getting stacks in like we did here. Long story short, if UTG is bad enough to stack off weak, he will still stack off weak on the turn when our equities look much better barring a scare card.

http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Js7h8h&g=he&h1=QhQd&h2=8s7s&h3=AhJc&s=generic

http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Js7h8h&g=he&h1=QhQd&h2=KhTh&h3=AhJc&s=generic

http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Js7h8h&g=he&h1=QhQd&h2=KhJh&h3=AdJc&s=generic

http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Js7h8h&g=he&h1=QhQd&h2=AhKh&h3=AdJc&s=generic

And these do not even include the times we are crushed vs KK+, 77, 88, JJ, T9.

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c0rnBr34d said:

Here we are already in a protected 3 bet pot in position and with a short stack and a healthy stack. We can still get it in by the turn as we did here since we are in a 3 way 3 bet pot. By raising flop we can reduce our EV by getting Jx to fold and maybe smaller flush draws or AK, AQ, TT, JT, there are a LOT of combos that will continue to put money in if we just call flop that may otherwise fold if we raise flop. Also if they were going to make the mistake of calling the raise on the flop with just a flush draw then they are likely to make the same mistake on the turn only this time it is for all of the chips. We also get to pot control on bad run outs. I think it's natural to want to over protect your QhQx here but in reality I think there are very few flushes to worry about and very few over cards to worry about. So we can still play close to perfectly and extract more value by keeping Jx, TT, 99, and heart draws, in by flatting flop. This also has the added bonus of letting us catch up to hands that have us beat like T9, or 87, or a set. Also, some of the so called rec group don't have a 4 bet range and could show up here with KK or AA for UTG. By raising flop we are narrowing UTGs already strong range to the hands that are more likely to have us beat. If UTG has a hand like AKhh or AThh they have just as much equity as we do, so it will be much more +EV to eval turn before committing our stack.

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