$2 NLHE 6-max: QJs flush draw + gutshot. Good or bad play?

Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $2.04 (VPIP: 25.54, PFR: 22.25, 3Bet Preflop: 10.47, hands: 910)
UTG: $2.41 (VPIP: 31.82, PFR: 25.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 69)
MP: $5.55 (VPIP: 33.93, PFR: 5.36, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 59)
CO: $4.42 (VPIP: 12.42, PFR: 9.60, 3Bet Preflop: 2.76, Hands: 812)
Hero (BTN): $2.00
SB: $2.03 (VPIP: 11.59, PFR: 10.14, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 73)

SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has J:heart: Q:heart:

UTG raises to $0.06, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.06, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.15, 2 players) 9:heart: 8:diamond: K:heart:
UTG bets $0.07, Hero raises to $0.25, UTG raises to $2.35 and is all-in, Hero calls $1.69 and is all-in

Turn: ($4.03, 2 players) Q:diamond:

River: ($4.03, 2 players) 9:club:


I understand 2 overs and a gutshot is standard. But what about this?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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You know you can just call the flop right? When a guy with solid stats raises UTG and then c-bets this flop, how much fold equity do we really have? Why not just call and you know, fold when we whiff everything?

Wait sorry, here's my real analysis:

ZOMG GUIZE I FLOPT 121029401249 OUTS GOGOGO GADGET JAMO-BLAMO!
 
dnegsisabadreg

dnegsisabadreg

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Raise/calling here is totally fine. We put a lot of pressure on some of his weaker hands that have equity against us, and we are flipping against top pair top kicker. We're only in really bad shape against sets which have us a 2 to 1 dog, but does he really play a set this strongly? Your play is fine here.
 
JohnCPoker17

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Preflop is fine, a call IP with suited/connected broadway.
Postflop I do like the raise, and particularly the sizing. You have 2 streets to hit 25 ours to draw to the nuts/near nuts. Given the opponents stats we can see he is particularly a LAG player, with no 3Bet aggression, meaning he would not 3Bet bluff, especially postflop without a made hand, meaning he is never 3Bet shoving weak here. However it is particularly interesting how he decides to open so weak (47% in 2NL). Given the shove, this leads us to believe he is inducing us in this spot. Assuming you have no interesting reads on this player, we can assume he is solid.

Given that he was UTG, and induce betting, we can put him on the following range:

(AA,KK,Axs,99,88,AK,K9s,107s,76s)

-The strong range is due to the small lead/the lack of 3Bet aggression from this player
-I don't see any bluffs in his range unless he's on tilt which is negligible

Giving him this range, the call is a slight losing play. However, if you have some other reads on tendencies this player has, it may be a winning play. Regardless, against the typical player it is marginally profitable in 2NL. Against the typical solid player or this player in particular, I believe it is slightly non profitable.
 
JohnCPoker17

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Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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I agree with C9 this is a call for me.
However once you have decided to raise you do need to call it off or you have no credibility at the table.
I think I've said this before but I save my big semi bluffs for when I'm drawing to the nuts. I read this advice in one of Harringtons cash game books and it has always served me well. The last thing you want is to hit your flush here and it still not be the best flush right!.
You probably don't bet big with the dumb end of a straight draw so why bet big without the nut flush draw.
And yes of course he plays his sets like this why wouldn't you when your opponent has raised so big on a wet flop.
 
John A

John A

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Yeah, just call in position. There's just not a lot you'll be folding out here that won't slow down on the turn once you call the flop.

But sometimes flipping coins is fun!
 
H

hffjd2000

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Its a flip for me.

The question here. Are you willing to risk and enter such flips?

In this case, I think this would depend on individuals state.
 
Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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Im not scared of anything it was all about whther i thought it was right or not
 
N

nicolasjesuscataldo

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I guess it's standard how you played.
If you pay on the flop and turn down a white'll have to fold to a bet that'll be great. Playing on the flop so you maximize your equity and fold equity.
Its range can be hands like 88 99 8 9 T j. I think with a hand you played King x check call
 
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