$2 NLHE 6-max: NUt flush draw and tptk on turn fold?

B

beckyg89

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Table Halley 9 (real money)
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( $2.89 USD ) - VPIP: 0, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, hands: 1
Seat 2: Player2 ( $2.11 USD ) - VPIP: 14, PFR: 10, 3B: 13, AF: 0.0, Hands: 59
Seat 3: Player3 ( $2.04 USD ) - VPIP: 25, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 8
Seat 4: Hero ( $2.03 USD ) - VPIP: 21, PFR: 14, 3B: 7, AF: 1.9, Hands: 226633
Seat 5: Player5 ( $2.96 USD ) - VPIP: 27, PFR: 23, 3B: 10, AF: 2.1, Hands: 124
Seat 6: Player6 ( $2.00 USD ) - VPIP: 15, PFR: 14, 3B: 10, AF: 5.3, Hands: 233
Player2 posts small blind [$0.01 USD].
Player3 posts big blind [$0.02 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ks Ac ]
Hero raises [$0.06 USD]
Player5 folds
Player6 folds
Player1 folds
Player2 calls [$0.05 USD]
Player3 folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kc, 4c, 2c ]
Player2 checks
Hero bets [$0.10 USD]
Player2 raises [$0.32 USD]
Hero calls [$0.22 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2s ]
Player2 bets [$0.56 USD]

It seems that villian is going to have a flush or a set often on the turn as i'm blocking the ut flush draaw- maybe occsionally a weird 2 pair although his stats are very tight in the small sample so almost never. and maybe kq or even kj with kcker of clubs. so when the turn comes pairing the board itt seems alot of the time my nut flush draw is useless and when he bets out big i think its a fold?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Eew. Villain's pretty taggy, so this is often a set or a flush. A set has you drawing dead, so I go ahead and pitch it on the turn. Only hand we're ahead of is KxQc (like 2 combos), and I'm not sure he raises the flop with that. So yes, I agree with your analysis.

And look at his AF. He's played 8 hands, and hasn't bet or raised in any of them. When you get raised on the flop by this guy, it should raise alarm bells.
 
Beanfacekilla

Beanfacekilla

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This is a pretty standard-ish spot.

I like the preflop play. I like the c-bet sizing.

When V raises your c-bet, we are getting less than 3:1, so I think call is -EV. However, we are pretty much calling to rip the nuts on the turn. And it will probably be somewhat tough to get paid off alot on a club turn. So in situations like these, we must be getting correct pot odds. As enticing as it is to call, it's gotta be break even or slightly -EV. See, we are only seeing one card, then we have to re-assess. So from a pure standpoint of EV, I would think it is -EV (I don't know for sure, where's John A?). The only way we can make it OK, is if we find a way to get paid off OTT.

From a pure standpoint of pot odds, we aren't getting right price at all on this flop. Our odds aren't what they seem, because we are only seeing one more card. Like if we punch it in to equity calculator, it will give us our equity, but that is seeing turn and river.

If we do hit on the turn, we are going to have to swing for the fence, and hope V calls with a set (while he still has hope to boat up), to make this call OTF.

However, abort mission on this turn. We are done with the hand. Once the board pairs, no. Fold turn as played.
 
TimovieMan

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When V raises your c-bet, we are getting less than 3:1, so I think call is -EV.
We're getting some implied odds if we hit, though. Two streets left to get him to induce or call. He's not folding a set on the turn if we hit and bet so that he's more or less priced in to call, and plenty of weaker flushes will fear we're bluffing and might call as well. That's not something to negate, right?


OP, nh, imo. But what are you doing at that table, I wonder?
 
Beanfacekilla

Beanfacekilla

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We're getting some implied odds if we hit, though. Two streets left to get him to induce or call. He's not folding a set on the turn if we hit and bet so that he's more or less priced in to call, and plenty of weaker flushes will fear we're bluffing and might call as well. That's not something to negate, right?


OP, nh, imo. But what are you doing at that table, I wonder?


This is a good point. The only thing I don't like is we are essentially seeing only 1 card, so we are what, roughly 20% to hit? If we hit turn, we have to get value, flat out. We gotta get monies in the pot OTT, when V can still suck out.
 
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Wow not a fun spot. The flop check raise is pretty big too so this screams either strength or go away and with villain's stats I'd lean toward strength. I'd probably call the flop too but not like it and the turn is a fold IMO.
 
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