$2 NLHE 6-max: No clue about odds - Can someone advise me on this hand?

J

Jonny03UK

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 23/19/46

IPoker, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools by CardRunners - Hand Details

Player1 (BTN): $8.49 (424.5 bb)
Player3 (SB): $4.13 (206.5 bb)
Player5 (BB): $4.53 (226.5 bb)
Player6 (MP): $0.89 (44.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $5 (250 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T
club4.gif
J
spade4.gif

Player6 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, Player1 calls $0.08, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.19) 2
club4.gif
8
heart4.gif
9
heart4.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.16, Player1 raises to $0.56, Hero ??

More information: Villain's stats are: 23/19/46 over 600 hands.


Was debating with myself for a while whether to call that flop raise.

Because of his stats and the way he snap-raised me, I was putting him on an over-pair or a set. I don't think he'd ever raise a flop bet with any kind of draw here. So, question is, can anyone tell me the best course of action here? Do I call and hope to hit a 7 or Q or is it an easy fold?

As for the pre flop play, I'll just mention that I had been running card dead for a while and was half trying a C/O steal and half trying to actually see some action. I know it's not the best play in the world ever.
 
youregoodmate

youregoodmate

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I know you're quite deep, but you're oop, added to your 'dead' outs, I think I would fold. This could well be a leak in my game though.
 
ovitoo

ovitoo

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I dont think its a bad fold oop but I'd probly flat just bc of eff stacks....Then when the flush hits I would rep it just cause I'm bad like that.
 
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D

doomasiggy

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calling 0.56 into 0.80

roughly 3:4

3 7's
3 Q's
2 J's
2 T's

J's and T's are dead so 6 outs.

6 out of 47, need to be getting 8:1 to call.
 
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Deco

Deco

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I don't think he'd ever raise a flop bet with any kind of draw here.

Why? You've assumed this in two of your posts now with two taggy looking players on very drawy boards. It's also a Co vs BTN spot. This guy will have loads suited hands and 67 sort of hands.
Generally when trying to estimate a tags range think about what you would call with preflop in their position and then what out of those hands you would raise. Overpairs are a fair bit less likely than draws.

As for the hand I'd call. We've six clean outs to the nuts with great implied odds and 2 outs that aren't clean. It's close as we're outof position sop our chances of taking the pot down unimproved is reduced and the amount of money we make when we hit is also not as good. I don't think I've gone over what outs are....

Has any body got a good pot odds article? :p
 
Deco

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Been looking for articles but every single one I come across horribly overcomplicated things.

I'd use this hand as an example but its abit complicated. Walk before you can run, learn to calculate:
*Outs
*Pot odds
*Implied odds
*Reverse implied odds & unclean outs

Outs are the number of cards out there that make your hand. An open ended straight draw has 8 outs as there are four 7s and four Qs that make your hand.
You then memorize/ or read an outs chart (its possible to calculate this but I'd rather you didn't at the moment). Print this one out if you get the chance.

I may type up my own article on it or just show you how to do all of this on skype some time next week.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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I think it's a flop fold because we're OOP so even when we hit we have a hard time getting paid. Also as said not all of our outs are clean AND those times when we do hit our hand and he's willing to get it in with worse he'll usually have 9 or 10 outs on the river.

Just too much going against you imo to make the flop a call.
 
JCgrind

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need to be getting 8:1 to call.

no we don't since he's not putting us all in. ESS is like 250bbs. I still fold though since vils stats are surprisingly decent for 2nl and were OOP- and therefore as mentioned we will struggle getting it in

In position though I think this is definitely a call
 
ovitoo

ovitoo

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...or you pull a JC and 4b ai to double up vs vil's 67o :p:p
 
JCgrind

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...or you pull a JC and 4b ai to double up vs vil's 67o :p:p

Rofl.

Had another one like that yesterday. Shipped A9s in a 3b pot on JT8r. Calls the $120 more ish w KQ. A high good, ty ty
 
Newschool

Newschool

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I think it's a flop fold because we're OOP so even when we hit we have a hard time getting paid. Also as said not all of our outs are clean AND those times when we do hit our hand and he's willing to get it in with worse he'll usually have 9 or 10 outs on the river.

Just too much going against you imo to make the flop a call.

Personally, I think its a call. Two overcards plus a solid OESD has a ton of equity vs alot of hands villain might play this way. If you blank the turn and he bets again I would fold. Could be a leak because the board is FD but meh. I really hate to lay down on a board like this with a hand nearing the top of our range.
 
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Newschool

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calling 0.56 into 0.80

roughly 3:4

3 7's
3 Q's
2 J's
2 T's

J's and T's are dead so 6 outs.

6 out of 47, need to be getting 8:1 to call.

uhh there are 4 7's and 4 Q's and 3 Js and 3 Ts. Or am I missing something:)
 
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Cheecho

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calling 0.56 into 0.80

That is not the right way to think about these odds. We are deciding whether to call 0.40 into 0.91. The money that is already in the pot is sunk. it no loger belongs to us and it should not enter our thought process.

Ignoring future rounds of betting (which is a dumb thing to do in real life, but useful for a discussion of calculating pot odds), we are getting just over 2:1 and our odds of hitting the straight by the river are about 1.8:1. So,I would ask myself the chances that I can get a free card to the river if I do not hit my straight on the turn.

Another way to think about it is that we have 8 real outs plus 7 additional hearts that we could use to rep the flush and make a move. When I am on the receiving end of that move holding something like an over pair or even a set, I have a hard time calling (it's a leak, but I get scared:). If you are comfortable making a moderate bluff, then you have 15 outs.
 
JCgrind

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uhh there are 4 7's and 4 Q's and 3 Js and 3 Ts. Or am I missing something:)

hes was listing outs that dont peel a flush, but then excluded the other non-clean outs (the J's and T's) seperately for some weird reason.

That is not the right way to think about these odds. We are deciding whether to call 0.40 into 0.91. The money that is already in the pot is sunk. it no loger belongs to us and it should not enter our thought process.

Ignoring future rounds of betting (which is a dumb thing to do in real life, but useful for a discussion of calculating pot odds), we are getting just over 2:1 and our odds of hitting the straight by the river are about 1.8:1. So,I would ask myself the chances that I can get a free card to the river if I do not hit my straight on the turn.

Another way to think about it is that we have 8 real outs plus 7 additional hearts that we could use to rep the flush and make a move. When I am on the receiving end of that move holding something like an over pair or even a set, I have a hard time calling (it's a leak, but I get scared:). If you are comfortable making a moderate bluff, then you have 15 outs.

and yet you seem to have ignored future rounds of betting. why would we ever do this since is the most relevant factor in whether we call the raise? calculation of pot odds of hitting by the river in this spot when we are raised on the flop is super irrelevant, since were highly unlikely to get to a river ever without binking OTT

based on villains stats, id definitely say he is capable of raising draws here, but since OP is convinced otherwise, lets pretend for arguments sake that this is never a draw.

so what hand raises that flop that is never a draw and then checks turn? theres like literally zero hands. might i add that even if villain say has AsAc or something and does elect to check back a blank heart OTT, he is doing this for pot control, so theres no point us betting the river trying to rep a flush since hes always calling. but anyway, my point is, villain is never checking back the turn. therefore, we dont really care about our chance to see a free river. what we care about is effective stack size, and how much we make if villain calls our check.shove OTT when we hit.
 
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H

HoldOnTheRail

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His stats shows that he isnt calling at all. He chooses 3bet or calls with pocket or maybe a call comes from j10s and a lil better. So you are facing jj 1010, high flush draws,a set. So a hand will pay you off is a set without a heart on a turn. He easily controls pot with flush draw or tens and jacks, so you wont get paid outta position. And I think his raise way too big for a draw. As you are both deep he wants you to pay a lot to draw. And I dont like a fact that you may have dead outs. I would fold here without doubt.
 
Deco

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I thought 6 outs was 7 to 1.
This 40c will have to net us $2.80 alltogether. The pot is 91c so we need to make $1.89 more on the turn and river on average when we spike our nut straight.

On the turn the pot will be $1.31 so we'd basically need villain to call so we're going to need a call on the turn and action on the river from time to time. Considering our other equity isn't worthless I just about make this with the intent to donk the turn.

I think there are few hands that raise this flop and can possibly fold the turn, the draws will always call, we'll get two streets of twopairs/sets we may even get a few weaker straights from time to time if villains prepared to raise gutshots. However we're also going to have to worry about losing money when our unpure outs come in. That and our donking line is very transparent I'm just working on the assumption that even villains with solid stats at 2NL suck at handreading.
 
youregoodmate

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After reconsidering this, I am even more certain I would fold. Hes likely to have a set or combo draw that we dont do well against. Maybe top pair/two pair but thats more unlikely. If we hit, we're struggling getting his stack in oop and he likely still has outs.

Save your $0.40 and buy a Mars bar.
 
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Cheecho

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Thanks JC. Fair point. Thinking some more, I realize that my idea is dependent on the fact that he might raise with a draw. I often do exactly this to gain some fold equity and perhaps buy a free card on the next street. Especially post-flop, when it is likely relatively cheap.

So, if his hand is made, we are toast, but if he is on a draw, then the call may slow him down enough to buy a free card to the river, no? In that case, the thinking about the odds of hitting by the river makes some sense. If we never think about the odds of hitting over the next two streets, then isn't the EV of ANY call with a draw negative? Why think about odds after the flop at all? Maybe you don't? (Hope the tone of this is o.k. - these are real questions, not sarcasm!)
 
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Jonny03UK

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Thanks for the replies guys. I actually did call the flop raise and you'll be happy to know it was a happy ending. I hit a 7 on the turn, bet £1, he raised me and I re-raised all in which he called. He had a set of 2s.

My immediate afterthoughts were that I played it badly and got lucky but I needed to double check. In future similar situations, I'll know that I'm better off folding - cheers.
 
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HoldOnTheRail

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So, if his hand is made, we are toast, but if he is on a draw, then the call may slow him down enough to buy a free card to the river, no? In that case, the thinking about the odds of hitting by the river makes some sense. If we never think about the odds of hitting over the next two streets, then isn't the EV of ANY call with a draw negative? Why think about odds after the flop at all? Maybe you don't? (Hope the tone of this is o.k. - these are real questions, not sarcasm!)

That draw makes no sense against flush draw, as you both miss he still takes it with high card. But a good point would be to bet river when he checks turn when we miss, we look like we got something as long as there is no a or k on the river. Thats the range that is villains stats. They do not 3bet kqs kjs etc.. Those hands get you in trouble. I think more likely his 3bet goes with 67s. Thats a hand that do not cross against higher kickers.
 
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HoldOnTheRail

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Sorry I was tired when I was writing this last post. Looks like I missed something here. Now I'm going to post when I really know the shit.
 
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