$2 NLHE 6-max: KK with Ace on Flop and Turn

J

jas0n7

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 14/8/1.7

Here's the hand, it was rush poker on Full Tilt.

SB: $1.34 (67 bb)
BB: $2.73 (136.5 bb)
UTG: $1.94 (97 bb)
MP: $9.54 (477 bb)
Hero (CO): $4.19 (209.5 bb)
BTN: $1.16 (58 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Kd Kh
UTG raises to $0.07, MP folds, Hero raises to $0.22, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.47) 9c 2h Ac (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.47) As (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.22, UTG raises to $0.44, Hero calls $0.22

River: ($1.35) Ks (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.28, UTG folds

Here was my thought process:

3betting kings preflop to around 3 times the original raise was fairly obvious, after a call I figured his likely range was most pocket pairs under QQ, AQ-T and maybe KQs, QJs, JTs, KJs, but given it being 1c/2c rush it could be wider.

On the flop I figured that by cbetting I was only getting maybe TT and JJ and two clubs to call that I'm beating, and TT and JJ may still fold. The chance of my opponent hitting a set on the turn or having two clubs and hitting their flush was minute enough that I figured I'm best off checking here, instead of betting and instant folding to a raise or bet on a blank turn.

The turn is an ace, which is excellent because it makes it less likely for the villain to have one. It also means that hands like TT and JJ are going to give me less credit for having one. His check doesn't necessarily mean he doesn't have an ace, but it does increase the likelihood. I bet half pot to try and entice more calls by weak pairs and still be giving clubs bad odds. The minimum re-raise is an odd play. My bet looked very weak so he could be mixing in a few bluffs and club draws here, but I don't think he's doing it with medium pocket pairs. I'm getting 5:1 so I decide to just call and fold to a club on the river or if he bets a significant enough amount on a blank.

The river is a King which, unless he has A9, A2, AA or AK, means I have the best hand. Most of those hands would of 4bet or folded on the flop so I'm prepared to ignore them, especially as A9 or A2 would probably have bet on the turn and there's only 2 Aces and 1 King left in the deck to make AK. He checks so I put him on (at best) JJ, TT, KQ, KJ or a really weak ace he called with loosely preflop. I bet enough to put him all in with the logic that he won't call any real amount with JJ or TT now the king is there, but would check call any amount with a weak ace and maybe hero call KQ, KJ, so betting bigger for value would be the +EV play.

Thoughts?
 
J

jackaoliver

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I like and understand your play until river sizing, you want to induce calls here, especially at 2NL where they believe bet sizing links directly to hand strengh. Go smaller more of half pot, getting calls from KJ KQ TT JJ which are folding to your river bomb.
 
akaRobbo

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After 3 betting I'm firing out on most flops. I understand your check, but if an A doesn't come on the turn, villain can easily steal from us, and most good players will check Aq/Ak to us on the flop, leaving us in a bad spot.

River bet sizing is terrible here. We need a call, make it around 0.90c even 0.80c
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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After 3 betting I'm firing out on most flops. I understand your check, but if an A doesn't come on the turn, villain can easily steal from us, and most good players will check Aq/Ak to us on the flop, leaving us in a bad spot.
This is pretty terrible.

Make the river bet a little smaller, and your 3-bet bigger. Other than that, looks fine to me. It's also worth noting that he will min-Baluga the turn as a bluff line, I'd certainly put that in my notes on this guy.
 
akaRobbo

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This is pretty terrible.

Make the river bet a little smaller, and your 3-bet bigger. Other than that, looks fine to me. It's also worth noting that he will min-Baluga the turn as a bluff line, I'd certainly put that in my notes on this guy.

You're so weak-tight it's unreal mate.
 
J

jackaoliver

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After 3 betting I'm firing out on most flops. I understand your check, but if an A doesn't come on the turn, villain can easily steal from us, and most good players will check Aq/Ak to us on the flop, leaving us in a bad spot.

River bet sizing is terrible here. We need a call, make it around 0.90c even 0.80c

What worse are we getting a call from by Betting flop, rather implement some pot control rather than building a massive pot with second pair.
 
akaRobbo

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What worse are we getting a call from by Betting flop, rather implement some pot control rather than building a massive pot with second pair.

If the turn isn't another ace, how are we ever winning the pot assuming villain stabs the turn, and then potentially the river? All decent players would take this line.

What are you on about building a massive pot? If we're called of raised after the flop bet, we're commiting no more, obviously.
 
OzExorcist

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Yeah, bet a little smaller on the river to encourage more calls - reality is there's probably not much left in his range other than Ax hands that can make the call. It's hard for him to have a king, and QQ or less is hating seeing another overcard, but make the bet a bit smaller and you might at least get a crying call from those kind of hands every now and then. Very occasionally villain may lose their mind and try to bluff shove too, which would be nice :p
 
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jas0n7

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Thanks for the thoughts guys, I agree with hindsight that I should have bet smaller on the river, but had the turn come a blank and the villain fired (probably around the size of my would-be cbet) I would have called and inflated the pot by the same amount with the villains range now containing a lot of non aces. I am also only one street closer to showdown so it's harder for him to get value with an ace.
However if I cbet and got a call I'm investing the same amount of money as I'd probably do calling on the turn, but have to give up without an ace or king coming, although there is a chance of JJ or clubs calling, or some weird reverse float.

Surely getting your opponent to make/call a bet with a hand worse than yours on one street has better EV than making a bet that is very unlikely for worse hands to call and better hands to fold? Sure I'll get bluffed sometimes, but that's poker. I can't just cbet and then fold later in the comfort that sure I lost EV, but at least I know he had the best hand!
 
OMGITSOVER9K

OMGITSOVER9K

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nah that river's real good sizing considering his range should be a load of Ax/99

AK sometimes but blockers obv

but anyway, we don't get there because we should be betting flop w/ KK apparently..

flop check's super super standard, doing anything else would be throwing away money
 
OzExorcist

OzExorcist

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Surely getting your opponent to make/call a bet with a hand worse than yours on one street has better EV than making a bet that is very unlikely for worse hands to call and better hands to fold? Sure I'll get bluffed sometimes, but that's poker. I can't just cbet and then fold later in the comfort that sure I lost EV, but at least I know he had the best hand!

Exactly right - I agree with the flop check too FWIW, for those reasons.
 
BlackArmani

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yesterday, the cg-6 desktop ztem starson, went out to the toilet and when I came back, all the 6 table was empty. does this mean something? (d)
 
F

Falcon1803

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Thanks for the thoughts guys, I agree with hindsight that I should have bet smaller on the river, but had the turn come a blank and the villain fired (probably around the size of my would-be cbet) I would have called and inflated the pot by the same amount with the villains range now containing a lot of non aces. I am also only one street closer to showdown so it's harder for him to get value with an ace.
However if I cbet and got a call I'm investing the same amount of money as I'd probably do calling on the turn, but have to give up without an ace or king coming, although there is a chance of JJ or clubs calling, or some weird reverse float.

Surely getting your opponent to make/call a bet with a hand worse than yours on one street has better EV than making a bet that is very unlikely for worse hands to call and better hands to fold? Sure I'll get bluffed sometimes, but that's poker. I can't just cbet and then fold later in the comfort that sure I lost EV, but at least I know he had the best hand!

I can't agree with the suggested betting the flop. In a 3-bet pot you might easily have had AA, AK, KK so it was difficult to get value from villain's TT, JJ, QQ, whereas they can try to bluff or call lighter on later streets. Of course this leaves us somewhat blind on the turn and river. I would call one reasonable bet on the turn and fold on the river (assuming different turn and river without A and K)
 
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