7th May 2014, 9:33 PM
$2 NLHE 6-max: KK with Ace on Flop and Turn
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF):
Here's the hand, it was rush poker on Full Tilt.
SB: $1.34 (67 bb)
BB: $2.73 (136.5 bb)
UTG: $1.94 (97 bb)
MP: $9.54 (477 bb)
Hero (CO): $4.19 (209.5 bb)
BTN: $1.16 (58 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with Kd Kh
UTG raises to $0.07, MP folds, Hero raises to $0.22, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.15
Flop: ($0.47) 9c 2h Ac (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($0.47) As (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.22, UTG raises to $0.44, Hero calls $0.22
River: ($1.35) Ks (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.28, UTG folds
Here was my thought process:
3betting kings preflop to around 3 times the original raise was fairly obvious, after a call I figured his likely range was most pocket pairs under QQ, AQ-T and maybe KQs, QJs, JTs, KJs, but given it being 1c/2c rush it could be wider.
On the flop I figured that by cbetting I was only getting maybe TT and JJ and two clubs to call that I'm beating, and TT and JJ may still fold. The chance of my opponent hitting a set on the turn or having two clubs and hitting their flush was minute enough that I figured I'm best off checking here, instead of betting and instant folding to a raise or bet on a blank turn.
The turn is an ace, which is excellent because it makes it less likely for the villain to have one. It also means that hands like TT and JJ are going to give me less credit for having one. His check doesn't necessarily mean he doesn't have an ace, but it does increase the likelihood. I bet half pot to try and entice more calls by weak pairs and still be giving clubs bad odds. The minimum re-raise is an odd play. My bet looked very weak so he could be mixing in a few bluffs and club draws here, but I don't think he's doing it with medium pocket pairs. I'm getting 5:1 so I decide to just call and fold to a club on the river or if he bets a significant enough amount on a blank.
The river is a King which, unless he has A9, A2, AA or AK, means I have the best hand. Most of those hands would of 4bet or folded on the flop so I'm prepared to ignore them, especially as A9 or A2 would probably have bet on the turn and there's only 2 Aces and 1 King left in the deck to make AK. He checks so I put him on (at best) JJ, TT, KQ, KJ or a really weak ace he called with loosely preflop. I bet enough to put him all in with the logic that he won't call any real amount with JJ or TT now the king is there, but would check call any amount with a weak ace and maybe hero call KQ, KJ, so betting bigger for value would be the +EV play.