$2 NLHE 6-max: King high flush facing river shove

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Macck

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 74/16/0.8

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (IPoker)
€2.00 EUR NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, December 24, 08:06:59 ET 2018
Table Adenbach (real money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 3: Player3 ( €7.01 EUR ) - VPIP: 24, PFR: 18, 3B: 7, AF: 1.6, hands: 1781
Seat 5: Player5 ( €1.94 EUR ) - VPIP: 74, PFR: 16, 3B: 17, AF: 0.8, Hands: 19
Seat 8: Hero ( €2.00 EUR ) - VPIP: 25, PFR: 14, 3B: 3, AF: 1.5, Hands: XX
Seat 10: Player10 ( €3.98 EUR ) - VPIP: 19, PFR: 12, 3B: 2, AF: 2.4, Hands: 4825
Player5 posts small blind [€0.01 EUR].
Player6 posts big blind [€0.02 EUR].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ks Qs ]
Hero raises [€0.06 EUR]
Player10 folds
Player3 folds
Player5 calls [€0.05 EUR]
Player6 folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9s, 6c, Ts ]
Player5 checks
Hero bets [€0.07 EUR]
Player5 raises [€0.16 EUR]
Hero calls [€0.09 EUR]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5d ]
Player5 bets [€1.72 EUR]

Hero?

My 1st post here on the strategy forum.
Really interested to hear thoughts on this one.
 
M

Macck

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Also how do I post the hand that displays card symbols rather than text?
Cheers :)
 
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micromoi

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it's a fold for me, it's looks to me that u r behind here, just fold and move on to the next hand.
 
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cs_rlewis

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I can't see what happened after villain bet turn?
 
TheBigFinn

TheBigFinn

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Villain is a wild man, It is hard to have a VPI above 50 much less 74 in 19 hands.. He is OOP and his numbers indicate he is unlikely to fold to a CB. Why CB with K high? As played when facing the Ck Raise one has to ask, "Is Villain bluffing?" If he has a pair Hero has 15 outs and is technically ahead. I like a re-raise.

After Hero calls Villain's re-raise there is €0,45 in the pot and Villain has €1.72 behind. A €0.45 pot size bet sets up a turn shove. As played there is €0.45 in the pot and a blank hits the turn, leaving Hero with the original 15 outs to the a pair and needs to call €1.72 to win $2.17 as a 30/70 dog. Hero has to fold.
 
playinggameswithu

playinggameswithu

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Snap fold. Your gut shot two overs and big flush draw is just a 19% 9% 14%
42%er also known as you got the wrong side of a Ako vs any pair QQ and below.

Any pair has about 58% equity against you and it is a cash game you dont beat much except QJo.
 
portuga

portuga

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Without more info about the villain I fold, we have 19% of Pot odds and 9 outs to flush, so 18% of estimated equity. It's close, but It's -EV call. Maybe he is overplaying a nut flush draw of spades (AsXs) and we are dead any way, so fold is a good move ;].
Pot - 41
Villain Bet - 172
P.O. = 41 / (172 + 41) = 0.19 => 19%
 
Vachina

Vachina

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Your oponent is a psycho. You should have gotten it in on the flop imo.
 
Hujiko

Hujiko

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On the turn just fold. You have 9 spade outs and 3 remaining Jacks is 12 clear outs and your K and Q are maybe outs so lets count for 50% is another 3. Total 15 outs which is 30%.

Villain is all-in:
Pot is ~2.5 and you need to pay 1.72 so you need 1.72 / (2.5+1.72) = 36%

So if the assumptions are correct and villain is not playing this way as a semi bluff you should fold (also against AsXs semi bluff your a big underdog).
 
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Macck

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Thanks everyone.

I ended up calling hoping to complete the flush/straight and got neither :(

Villain turned out to have hole cards of [6h, 4h] so his pair of 6's won the lot. An insane bet by him but a valuable lesson for me that no matter how good a drawing hand looks its totally useless unless it hits.
 
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