$2 NLHE 6-max: Half Stack Shoves Flop I have 2 Overs and Flush Draw

Creepy Jackalope

Creepy Jackalope

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hands like this always throw me a bit, guess I'm looking for some opinions.

I don't think I can ever call here, but does anybody else see it different?

I don't give him a lot of credit here frankly.. his stack size, flatting in MP, and the stupid flop shove...but I still don't think I can talk myself into a call.

Being short stacked I think he's raising TT or better pre. I guess a set here is possible, but does he bet like that here? Does he have a better flush draw usually and just play like a moron? Is he actually flatting 67 pre in MP?

I haven't done the math cause I prefer to walk through life dirty and stupid, but if anybody out there likes crunching numbers.. I'm listening.

Thoughts?


pokerstars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed)

Button ($2.11)
SB ($4.22)
BB ($2)
Hero (UTG) ($2.17)
MP ($1.06)
CO ($0.98)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10
spade.gif
, Q
spade.gif

Hero raises to $0.06, MP calls $0.06, 4 folds



Flop: ($0.15) 5
spade.gif
, 8
club.gif
, 4
spade.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.09, MP raises to $1 (All-In), Hero ??
 
LD1977

LD1977

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Your overs are kind of iffy, but if you had AKss then you call every time with this effective stack size, reason being you own most overpairs and lower flush draws.

As for this hand, I don't think you have enough equity to call - he can have a straight, set, overpair better than 99, 2pairs and you are well behind all of those. Even nut FD is ahead of you.
 
R

rumsey182

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You have nowhere near enough odds to call unless he is shoving like 2 unders that you dominate that don't have st8 flush draws very easy lay down
 
T

twohaha

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This is probably a pretty bad estimation, this is your equity against top pair or better and flush draws (assuming he reraises with JJ+)

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 5s8c4s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 41.78% 41.42% 0.36% { QsTs }
MP3 58.22% 57.86% 0.36% { 99, TdTh, TdTc, ThTc, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 5d5h, 5d5c, 5h5c, 4d4h, 4d4c, 4h4c, 76s, AsKs, AsJs, As9s, Ad8d, Ah8h, As8s, Kd8d, Kh8h, Ks8s, Td8d, Th8h, 9d8d, 9h8h, 9s8s, As7s, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8s7s, As6s, As3s, As2s, Ad8h, Ad8s, Ah8d, Ah8s, As8d, As8h, Ac8d, Ac8h, Ac8s, Kd8h, Kd8s, Kh8d, Kh8s, Ks8d, Ks8h, Kc8d, Kc8h, Kc8s }

you need to win aproximately 42.35% for this call to be profitable. So if you can put the opponent on some bluffs, the call is profitable. Otherwise, it's probably a fold, since this range makes some fairly inaccurate assumptions (a lot of donks don't shove with draws for example).
 
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