$2 NLHE 6-max: Full House on crazy board

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Denellus

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/15/5

Hi,

So this is a hand from regular table 2nl, 6-max, and my villain is an unknown player with not so terrible stats (22/15 after only 27 hands).


UTG: $2.79 (139.5 bb)
MP: $1.99 (99.5 bb)
CO: $2.11 (105.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): $4.22 (211 bb)
SB: $2.22 (111 bb)
BB: $3.48 (174 bb)

SB posts $0.01, BB posts $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has :8d4: :8h4:
UTG raises to $0.06, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.06, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.15, 2 players) :4s4: :4c4: :10d4:
UTG bets $0.11, Hero calls $0.11

Turn: ($0.37, 2 players) :10h4:
UTG bets $0.28, Hero calls $0.28

River: ($0.93, 2 players) :8c4:
UTG bets $0.70, Hero raises to $3.77 and is all-in, UTG calls $1.64 and is all-in

I think that flop and turn play is usual, but do I need to value-bet river on this kind of board?
After analyzing this hand afterward, I can't see any other hands except A4s that will call my shove and loose to my FH. All the JJ-AA don't lead on the river (and probably turn) after such a terrible runout. He could have AK, but perhaps he will never call the shove on the river. Also, he would have slowplayed his 44/TT.
So, I have only 2 combos of A4s, that are behind me in his calling range, and 8 combos of AT, to which I'm loosing. Does that mean that I should call the river? Or I analyze this hand in the wrong way?

Thanks in advance for all your comments!
 
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gustav197poker

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Due to stake NL2, it is advisable to steal the blinds in preflop. You have a fairly fair hand and leading here is another option to take advantage of your position. We think that this villain is probably not a NIT player (this observation should be done constantly in micro stakes, as the size of the samples thrown by the HUD increases). Another reason to lead the preflop is your effective stack. You have a greater margin of protection of your spr, therefore the times that you obtain folds in preflop you are reducing the variance that implies a pot of multiple routes and at the same time obtaining positive returns, with your preflop range of semibluffs.
On the flop the villain's polarized bet could mean a strong hand or a pure bluff like AK. But considering that it is played at micro levels, it is more likely to think of some strong combination of the villain. For which, possibly the closest alternative is an exploitative fold here. But the call is acceptable, considering our depth and if we think we are facing the V bias percentage that only looks for hero fold equity, in this super dry texture.
If you continued on the flop, things changed a bit on the turn. The T now neutralizes our bluff catcher, because the villain is unlikely to have a worse hand than ours. In fact the long table UTG position is too strong here, thus increasing the villain's value range at this point. His bluff range remains constant at AX combos, but the hands that beat us increase. At this point we are closer to fold, but if we decide to continue we should to call on the river. There is no reason to increase because we will only isolate ourselves with the strongest hands that will defeat us most of the time.
Greetings.
 
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Fjarri

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I prefer isolating UTG from BU with 88 because middle pairs play poorly when BB also joins in, which he can do very wide. That said, a call some low percentage of the time should be okay.

Flop is standard as you say. Your range is ahead of his at this point.

Turn gets a bit dicey. His range is uncapped and there are no draws. His higher pairs get there against anything but a T or a 4 you might have. This is at best a very low EV call, which is not usually what we're after when playing low stakes. I'd advise for a fold here.

The river is a blessing, of course. Your analysis is correct in that your raise is misguided against an opponent who seems stable. Very standard call.
 
Aballinamion

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/15/5

Hi,

So this is a hand from regular table 2nl, 6-max, and my villain is an unknown player with not so terrible stats (22/15 after only 27 hands).


UTG: $2.79 (139.5 bb)
MP: $1.99 (99.5 bb)
CO: $2.11 (105.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): $4.22 (211 bb)
SB: $2.22 (111 bb)
BB: $3.48 (174 bb)

SB posts $0.01, BB posts $0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has :8d4: :8h4:
UTG raises to $0.06, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.06, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.15, 2 players) :4s4: :4c4: :10d4:
UTG bets $0.11, Hero calls $0.11

Turn: ($0.37, 2 players) :10h4:
UTG bets $0.28, Hero calls $0.28

River: ($0.93, 2 players) :8c4:
UTG bets $0.70, Hero raises to $3.77 and is all-in, UTG calls $1.64 and is all-in

I think that flop and turn play is usual, but do I need to value-bet river on this kind of board?
After analyzing this hand afterward, I can't see any other hands except A4s that will call my shove and loose to my FH. All the JJ-AA don't lead on the river (and probably turn) after such a terrible runout. He could have AK, but perhaps he will never call the shove on the river. Also, he would have slowplayed his 44/TT.
So, I have only 2 combos of A4s, that are behind me in his calling range, and 8 combos of AT, to which I'm loosing. Does that mean that I should call the river? Or I analyze this hand in the wrong way?

Thanks in advance for all your comments!

Preflop it is fine to be defending all of our pocket pairs in position versus anyone's UTG's opening range, for a raise of maximum 3 blinds.
Considering we are deep stacked and Villain has a couple of 100 blinds ES, we get a good price for setmining.

The real problem comes OTF: this flop is particularly ultra dry, no SDs, no FDs, and for this reason we should be calling down when UTG/Villain c-bets a sizing that varies from 1/3 pot to 1/2 pot at maximum. Villain goes for 2/3 pot OOP, and this is a very insane strong move. (polarization)
Many players are checking on spots like this even when they are holding TT+, so they would go for check-calling or check-raising.
I will not consider your stats for only 27 hands, cause I believe them almost irrelevant prelop and totally irrelevant postflop.
Which hands UTG could have opened that could follow this strong line OTF?

As bluffs: AKs, AQs, AJs, A9s, etc, KQs, KJs, K9s, etc.

As Values: 99+

Making the situation comprehensible, when UTG/Villain c-bets 2/3 pot, we are expecting much more bluffs than values on Villain's range, which are the back doors of straights and flushes with strong suited broadways.
Other hands we find hard to believe to be following this line: 22-77. If UTG is holding 44, for example, and c-bets 2/3 pot on a very dry flop like this it will get thousands of instant folds, and the same goes for if UTG is holding TT.
Except the nutted hands, would 22, 33, 55, 66 and 77 c-bet 2/3 pot? We cannot say that for sure, because we only have 27 hands played with Villain.
The cold call OTF is not the end of the world, but it is also not good: what are we going to do on X, Y and Z turns after we have called 2/3 OTF?

The turn doesn't change the picture and Villain sends another bomb of 2/3 pot and now we should be folding almost always to a unknown player.
Remember that we didn't 3-bet preflop, so UTG has on its range all the TT+ and we don't own these combos, perhaps just a couple of TT and JJ, but look at the picture and see that although Villain could only have one combo of TT,
it has 6 combos of 99, 6 combos of JJ, 6 combos of QQ, 6 combos of KK and 6 combos of AA, not counting A4s, ATs, KTs for example.
Many weak regulars at the micros and mid stakes are not c-betting/double barrelling OTT, out of position with AK when unimproved. (check Polished Poker Vol 1 for more details: https://www.cardschat.com/forum/cash-games-11/polished-poker-vol-i-study-group-227214//)

It is very nasty when we do call OTT again on a totally dry board. The question persists what are we going to do OTR, now that we have commited ourselves even more by calling down on the turn?
Are we expecting anything that it is not a 8x? So we are drawing to 2 outs OTR and I don't believe we have the proper odds to be calling. If there were some kind of draws on the board, I would say it could be okay your calling, but in this scenario, it is very strange. Besides when we hit a 8x OTR we are expecting to extract value from which hands? 99+, but those could easily fold to a river shove or easily check the river oop.
Hands that also could have did it are 44, A4s, AT and TT.
We are only beating A4, because 44 has the nuts, AT has a better boat, TT the total nuts, etc. When we do not hit our 8x OTR we are going to call one more time, if Villain gives the proper price, to see that we are also dead for 99+.

As I said, OTR you should not be raising because UTG still has all of the nuts on its range, but now that you hit your boat it would be impossible to fold.
Be aware of giant bloated pots, when you are not holding the nuts.
You can see now that flop and turn are not "usual" or "standard" moves: you could have folded already OTF, having no information and knowing that at the micros, they aren't bluffing so much as we expect, specially Zoom Tables.
Following your line, you should be calling down OTR, not raising.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
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Aballinamion

Aballinamion

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Due to stake NL2, it is advisable to steal the blinds in preflop. You have a fairly fair hand and leading here is another option to take advantage of your position. We think that this villain is probably not a NIT player (this observation should be done constantly in micro stakes, as the size of the samples thrown by the HUD increases). Another reason to lead the preflop is your effective stack. You have a greater margin of protection of your spr, therefore the times that you obtain folds in preflop you are reducing the variance that implies a pot of multiple routes and at the same time obtaining positive returns, with your preflop range of semibluffs.
On the flop the villain's polarized bet could mean a strong hand or a pure bluff like AK. But considering that it is played at micro levels, it is more likely to think of some strong combination of the villain. For which, possibly the closest alternative is an exploitative fold here. But the call is acceptable, considering our depth and if we think we are facing the V bias percentage that only looks for hero fold equity, in this super dry texture.
If you continued on the flop, things changed a bit on the turn. The T now neutralizes our bluff catcher, because the villain is unlikely to have a worse hand than ours. In fact the long table UTG position is too strong here, thus increasing the villain's value range at this point. His bluff range remains constant at AX combos, but the hands that beat us increase. At this point we are closer to fold, but if we decide to continue we should to call on the river. There is no reason to increase because we will only isolate ourselves with the strongest hands that will defeat us most of the time.
Greetings.

Hey mate, thank you for your comment. I have a doubt here, what do you mean when you say that Hero should be leading? Hero has position over Villain and called preflop, so UTG is first to act, impossible to lead. We could go for a raise OTF, but we couldn't do it, because we flatted preflop, so if we do raise OTF when UTG c-bets, we are totally unbalancing our range, cause UTG will have all the TT+ on its range and we won't and UTG can shove a thousands of dry flops like this for bluff, and it would be very hard to be continuing with anything that it is not a 4x or a TT (hands that we don't own very often, otherwise we sould not be raising the nuts OTF to make nitty fold JJ+, ever).

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
 
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gustav197poker

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Hey mate, thank you for your comment. I have a doubt here, what do you mean when you say that Hero should be leading? Hero has position over Villain and called preflop, so UTG is first to act, impossible to lead. We could go for a raise OTF, but we couldn't do it, because we flatted preflop, so if we do raise OTF when UTG c-bets, we are totally unbalancing our range, cause UTG will have all the TT+ on its range and we won't and UTG can shove a thousands of dry flops like this for bluff, and it would be very hard to be continuing with anything that it is not a 4x or a TT (hands that we don't own very often, otherwise we sould not be raising the nuts OTF to make nitty fold JJ+, ever).

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

Hello friend how are you, I was referring to end the preflop sequence, dominating with our increase range. From the position it is impossible to lead the bet as you good say. Thanks for your clarification. Regards.
 
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