$2 NLHE 6-max: folding preflop AQs to BB 3 bet

L

limakpl

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poker stars $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/2848699
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (UTG): $7.59
MP: $4.08
CO: $1.58
BTN: $4.16
SB: $1.20
BB: $2.00

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG with Ah Qh
Hero raises to $0.06, 1 fold, CO calls $0.06, 1 fold, SB calls $0.05, BB raises to $0.32, HERO fold, CO calls $0.26, 1 fold

3 bettor first hand (silverstar on pokerstar) I figure it out that I am behind here his likely range JJ+ AQ+ so I can't reall beat much.

BUT 0.50 in the pot 0.26 to call so odds 2;1 plus possible calls behind me .

is there a any reason to call this preflop? What about if we were heads up?. I can only really count on A but still can be beaten by AK.
Can I call and fold to bet if unimproved (I have position over BB?
 
Delvuter

Delvuter

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I never flat in this scenario, EVER. Either fold or 4-bet. I like that you folded. I guarantee you'll get a bunch of people saying you should have shoved. It is their default move that they think is so clever. Folding here is clever. I love folding decent hands strategy article, this is part o fthat article where he describes an AQ hand

"Imagine the following scenario.

You are in a $22 MTT, there are 30 players left of 390 and you have made the money. The average stack is 20,000 and you have 25,000, the blinds are 750/1500.

You are dealt AQ in the cut off (one from the button) at a 10 seat table. An early position player (villain) raises to 4000 (his stack is 30,000) and it folds to you. What should you consider before acting?

Most important is villain’s image.

Has he been involved in a lot of pots? If he has, does he raise when he gets involved? This is where Pokertracker does its work. If he’s been voluntarily involved in 15% or less of hands (his VPIP%) then you should already be wary. Worse still if he has a preflop raise significantly lower than his VPIP% then it is unlikely that he is making a move in early position with anything other than a decent hand as his stats indicate he limps when he speculates and raises when he has a top ten starting hand. So let’s assume he has a VPIP% of 15% and a preflop raise of 5% over 100 hands. If you don’t have Pokertracker then your notes should give you a similar indication of his play.

So what is our reply to his 4000 raise? We have position, assuming the button doesn’t come along. We have a strong starting hand and we have sufficient chips to call and leave ourselves with 21,000.

(there is a case for reraising here if villain has shown he can fold to resistance, but for the purposes of this article we’ll look at the call)

What are the possible outcomes if we call?

Assuming no further action, the pot would be 10,025.

Lets see some flops.

A52
TAJ
KJ3
Q53
KQ4
579

Obviously this is not a representative sample but consider which of these flops is a good result for us. Clearly Q high is great and with A high we have top pair 2nd kicker. However we have to now seriously consider villains range. If we assume that a player with such a low VPIP% is only raising something decent that must give us

AA
KK
AK
QQ
JJ
TT
AQ
And possibly AJ, KQ and 99.

The pokerstove analysis of AQ versus both these ranges is included at the end of the article for information.

There is of course no reason why he can’t have anything else, but in this situation, late in a tourney against a decent player, you won’t lose your house putting him on this range. Look again at the flops and consider his range and there are a lot more situations where we are losing than winning. What is worse and this is the fundamental point of this article
• there are very few flops where we both hit that we hit better
•there are lots of flops that we both hit that we hit worse

Let’s give ourselves and A79 flop.

Villain bets 4000 (he’s solid so he’s usually betting the flop regardless) and the action is with us. If we call we push the pot to 18,025 and leave ourselves with 17,000. If villain bets the turn (presumably at least 8,000) then are we really able to get away?

If we reraise to 10,000 (the minimum that is likely to take the pot here) are we really laying down to a reraise all in?

Essentially we find ourselves in situation where against AK or AA we are losing most if not all of our stack and we were behind from the moment the cards were dealt. Surely we should be able to avoid being cold-decked with AQ at such a late stage in a tourney?

If however he has KK, QQ, JJ, TT then he probably still betting out on the flop but is folding to any resistance.

Realistically the largest amount of chips we are winning (profit) is the preflop bet plus a continuation bet (approximately 6,000-8,000 extra chips) and to do this we are running a fairly significant risk of losing a lot more of our chips. If villain doesn’t make the continuation bet, it could be even less.

So the solution? Fold preflop

As said above in many circumstances this would be weak-tight but here it allows us to pick a battle of our own choosing and fight on our terms rather than our opponent’s.

JJ is a similar hand. Once again,
• there are very few flops where we both hit that we hit better
•there are lots of flops that we both hit that we hit worse

It may seem crazy to fold JJ preflop when it could easily be coinflip, but what flops are you going to hit that you really like? And do you really want to push and be called by QQ, KK, AA after 3+ hours?

This may all seem very weak, but it is really a way of trying to minimise situations where you feel you are at the mercy of the cards and despite playing “correctly” you bust out. In the right circumstances you should of course be extremely aggressive with a wide range of hands, making the most of position, your table image and the weaknesses of other players.

Sometimes folding hand like AQ or JJ preflop to a fairly small raise is a sign of your confidence in your ability to pick the right situation rather than treating certain beats as inevitable because of playing certain cards mechanically and automatically.

Late in MTTs it is these marginal hands that are often the killers, either by costing us our entire stack or a significant part of it. There’s certainly a time for playing them late in tournies, against a much looser opponent, with larger or smaller stacks and certainly when first to act, but sometimes the problem can be solved by avoiding it completely.

Thanks for reading.

Pokerstove analyis of AQ versus likely ranges equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 34.397% 24.06% 10.33% 18542395 7961685.50 { AcQd }

Hand 1: 65.603% 55.27% 10.33% 42587914 7961685.50 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 47.621% 40.86% 06.76% 52470381 8685803.00 { AcQd }

Hand 1: 52.379% 45.62% 06.76% 58580813 8685803.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }"
 
IPlay

IPlay

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Nice fold, only calling a 3 bet from the blinds with AQ when I am opening from CO and BTN
 
Delvuter

Delvuter

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Nice fold, only calling a 3 bet from the blinds with AQ when I am opening from CO and BTN

__________________

Ah! Because your perceived range is wide! The 3-bet Blind woul dhave to be a thinker and not a fish.
 
B

baxre

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For me fold is not good. If you folding here AQs, you also fold here JJ ? My advice: never play with stack like 300bb. Play with 100bb max.
 
NineLions

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True; you give and receive bigger implied odds the deeper stacked you are but in this hand it's irrelevant since the other two involved are less that 100bbs.

Two other considerations: CO's style and BB's perception of your style. If you're TAG, BB may guess that he can fold anything less than AK/JJ+ by squeezing, and he can fold his AQ/TT ect if you reraise. Or he may be trying to get heads up against CO if he thinks CO is a preflop fish that plays fitorfold postflop.

That said, folding AQ without more detailed reads on both players is fine, imo, especially as you aren't closing the action; what are you doing here if you flat or raise and CO shoves, for example?
 
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limakpl

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Hmm didn't think about this squeeze possibility, CO was indeed a fish but it was BB first hand so I don't think he could knew that, and the same I don't think I played with BB before so he was making a 3 bet without info on me.

and you know as I said I can really count on A and i am more often still beaten by ak.ALSo, if BB has KK for example and the flop comes A75 I can't make loads of money out of him (so implied odds concept don't really apply here)
 
Aces2w1n

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Bad fold.

We have position against the guy in the blinds. AQoff is another story but we got AQs even if he has us dominated. We still have a plan B.

Question is do we flat or 3bet? I'm actually considering flatting here only because POSITION!!! and we aren't really worried about CO at this stage.

Wait and re evalute on the flop and see how we go, but PFR will be acting first remember this.

I do have to mention 2 things.

1. It seems your scared? Perhaps take away the status(stars) on display off.
We do cancel some of his AK combos holding AQ.

2. You have a strong hand and position! We don't care about CO for now, he can help us beef up the pot when we hit hard and take both of their monies!


Another tip!.

We aren't playing deep here the effective stack sizes are 100bb.

Anyone playing less than 100bb are generally bad players, i'd even expect cappers are bad at this level as well.
 
Delvuter

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I think being able to make those tough folds is a much more difficult skill to learn than making calls. I also think that making calls is often the incorrect decision. Making the right choice is usually harder than making the wrong one, so it makes sense.
 
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limakpl

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Bad fold.

We have position against the guy in the blinds. AQoff is another story but we got AQs even if he has us dominated. We still have a plan B.

Question is do we flat or 3bet? I'm actually considering flatting here only because POSITION!!! and we aren't really worried about CO at this stage.

Wait and re evalute on the flop and see how we go, but PFR will be acting first remember this.

I do have to mention 2 things.

1. It seems your scared? Perhaps take away the status(stars) on display off.
We do cancel some of his AK combos holding AQ.

2. You have a strong hand and position! We don't care about CO for now, he can help us beef up the pot when we hit hard and take both of their monies!


Another tip!.

We aren't playing deep here the effective stack sizes are 100bb.

Anyone playing less than 100bb are generally bad players, i'd even expect cappers are bad at this level as well.

Nr 1. The more info we have, the better decisions we could make. Most 3 star players are multi tablers solid Tags on this limit. How they can such a moves without info ?

Nr 2. We have position , so what ? How often we are going to make money here, and how often are we losing ? We are dominated with only few chances of improwing and even if we flop NFD chasing will be very exprnsive
 
Aces2w1n

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I'm not scared of AK in this spot.

We actually have the edge over AK because we have position.

1/3 of the time we miss everything and that means we can force our opponent into some terrible spots and he'll be forced to fold. And this opponent will fold if he's as good as you say he is :) so lets abuse this.

Sometimes we get 2 pairs AQ board and he's top pair and kicker is too good to fold?

Where do we make our money! POSITION!!!! ALWAYS

So look chances are we can make some big pots and win. And if we have discipline we can get out cheaply :)
 
Delvuter

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I'm not buying it. We win IP because we can find out what their range may be throughout a hand, but once we figure they have something like AK we are not get excited. We are looking for an exit strategy. I guess the answer is different depending what kind of player you are. If you are more conservative, which I am, I am not fond of AQ with action in front of me. If I am more liberal I guess we 4-bet. I don't think calling is ever right here.
 
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Tomasz

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you can play call But you need good hit flop ,
to know which way to go
 
Delvuter

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I don't like that over all strategy either, I understand we are sometimes limping in with medium to small pairs and sometimes suited connectors to hopefully get a set or flush/straight draw for cheap, but if we are making calls with whole cards that are trap hands with tons of action in front of us OOP planning on folding when we get a whiff of defeat, if we are fortunate enough to sniff it out before it’s too late that is not an over-all winning strategy.
 
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limakpl

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I'm not scared of AK in this spot.

We actually have the edge over AK because we have position.

1/3 of the time we miss everything and that means we can force our opponent into some terrible spots and he'll be forced to fold. And this opponent will fold if he's as good as you say he is :) so lets abuse this.

Sometimes we get 2 pairs AQ board and he's top pair and kicker is too good to fold?

Where do we make our money! POSITION!!!! ALWAYS

So look chances are we can make some big pots and win. And if we have discipline we can get out cheaply :)


Ok, I get your point about the position you are right, we can make money from position, only when he holds Ak and we both miss or when we flop two pair (I don't know exact chances of flopping two pair but i guess about 2%) but AK is only 12 combinations.

WHILE

rest of his likely range ( AA is 3 combinations, + KK 6 combinations, QQ 3 combinations + JJ 6 combinations) 18 combinations in total.

yeah when he holds QQ or KK and you flop the ace , is villian going to pay you off ???

There are more hands that we lose with, than hands that we beat.
In my opinion folding is better option than calling, calling is EV- .
 
J

Jreece18

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Readless I'd fold because it's a situation that can turn messy.. Partly down to lacking in my post flop confidence, but also, micros is still about fat value?

Re-raising is only going to be effective if you think he's squeezing. 4bet ranges are so tight at 2nl that if you 4bet, he's likely either shoving or folding - with no info I don't see how you can assume he's squeezing in his first hand.

I agree with aces that AQs is pretty strong and having position means you could flat, but readless it seems like you're chasing thin value - especially with another player to act behind you. With 200 hands on the guy it'd be an easier decision.
 
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DunningKruger

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My advice: never play with stack like 300bb. Play with 100bb max.

Just so you know, this is bad advice. It also isn't particularly relevant when effective stacks are only 100 blinds by the time we're reraised.

As for the hand, don't 4bet vs the squeeze. Calling is fine (expect to get one or two calls behind as well) and you're unlikely to get backraised. You'd need to be careful postflop since you're potentially in what some would call a reverse implied odds situation, but 2NL players are transparent enough that you can get away with playing the hand imo. If you're playing a ton of tables or you're not very confident in what's developing then mucking and moving on is okay too.

A HUD would be beneficial in this spot.
 
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