$2 NLHE 6-max: Folding a set on the turn

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2NL 6-MAX ZOOM Poker
Effective stack sizes of $2.00

Hero (SB) is dealt Ts Tc
Hero posts $0.01
BB posts $0.02
UTG folds
MP folds
Villain (CO) raises to $0.06
BTN calls $0.06
Hero raises to $0.24
BB folds
Villain calls $0.18
BTN folds

$0.52 in pot
Flop shows Jh Th Ks

Hero bets $0.30
Villain calls $0.30

$1.12 in pot (effective stack of $1.54 behind)
Turn shows Qh

Hero checks
Villain bets $0.58
Hero ???

My analysis: This was the worst turn card ever... my original plan was to make a medium-sized bet on the flop and then shove the turn, but after this card came, I decided to check instead to see how the villain would react. After the villain made this bet, I didn't know what to do... The fact that the villain called my 3bet preflop makes me think he has a hand like AJ, AQ, AK, JJ or QQ, all of which beat me (remember this is 2NL ZOOM poker where people tend to be really tight preflop). The only hand I can beat here is if the villain decided to play a hand like KQ, KJ or a low pocket pair, but the low pocket probably would've folded to the continuation bet. So it seems like the villain crushes my set here most of the time. I thought that there was a small chance I could improve on the river (to a full house or quads), but I wasn't sure if I was getting the right price to call the $0.58 bet, plus it would be hard to fold on the river when I've invested so much into the pot, which is why I thought it would be easier to just fold on the turn.

Thoughts?
 
ConDeck

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Fold is fine on the turn, as said we HATE this turn card.

Question, at 2NL does villain bets his 2P hands on this turn however? Does he ever have any bluffs in his range as we show weakness by checking (unlikely I think)? If we include those we can maybe call and fold to river shove as he gives up with these after we call turn (unless we improve).
 
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Fold is fine on the turn, as said we HATE this turn card.

Question, at 2NL does villain bets his 2P hands on this turn however? Does he ever have any bluffs in his range as we show weakness by checking (unlikely I think)? If we include those we can maybe call and fold to river shove as he gives up with these after we call turn (unless we improve).

You raise a good point. Whilst it's not uncommon for people to bluff after they're checked to, especially when they've got complete air and it's the only way they can win the pot, it's probably unlikely that the villain would be betting the turn with 2 pair here, since he would essentially be turning his hand into a bluff (he's more likely to bet the turn with air imo).

Thinking about his range, I don't think the villain would ever really have complete air here, unless he went crazy with a hand like 88 (very unlikely), so I agree that even though he might bluff with air, it's very hard for him to have that after he called a $0.24 re-raise preflop.

So the only question remaining is whether I have the odds to call $0.58 on the turn with the hopes of improving. When I look at the maths, the maximum I could win (if I stacked him on the river) is $1.12 + $1.54 = $2.66. We know that $0.58 is 21.8% of $2.66, so I'd need to hit a full house or quads at least 21.8% of the time to justify the call. Assuming the villain has an Ace + broadway card, then I have 9 outs with 44 remaining cards. This means that I have a 20.5% chance of improving, making it slightly unprofitable for me to call.

So I think I made the right decision. Thank you for helping me analyse this hand :)
 
ConDeck

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No problem, I'm thinking of getting a few of us zoom cash grinders in a skype chat, would you be up for that?
 
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I appreciate the offer but I don't use Skype.
 
Thinker_145

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Not taking into account that this is 2NL one should really fold bottom set in a spot like this. Because even if you make a full house in the end there are lots of hands still beating you.

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