Originally Posted by ConDeck
Fold is fine on the turn, as said we HATE this turn card.
Question, at 2NL does villain bets his 2P hands on this turn however? Does he ever have any bluffs in his range as we show weakness by checking (unlikely I think)? If we include those we can maybe call and fold to river shove as he gives up with these after we call turn (unless we improve).
You raise a good point. Whilst it's not uncommon for people to bluff after they're checked to, especially when they've got complete air and it's the only way they can win the pot, it's probably unlikely that the villain would be betting the turn with 2 pair here, since he would essentially be turning his hand into a bluff (he's more likely to bet the turn with air imo).
Thinking about his range, I don't think the villain would ever really have complete air here, unless he went crazy with a hand like 88 (very unlikely), so I agree that even though he might bluff with air, it's very hard for him to have that after he called a $0.24 re-raise preflop.
So the only question remaining is whether I have the odds
to call $0.58 on the turn with the hopes of improving. When I look at the maths, the maximum I could win (if I stacked him on the river) is $1.12 + $1.54 = $2.66. We know that $0.58 is 21.8% of $2.66, so I'd need to hit a full house or quads at least 21.8% of the time to justify the call. Assuming the villain has an Ace + broadway card, then I have 9 outs with 44 remaining cards. This means that I have a 20.5% chance of improving, making it slightly unprofitable for me to call.
So I think I made the right decision. Thank you for helping me analyse this hand