$2 NLHE 6-max: Flopped top set vs. scary turn

ben_rhyno

ben_rhyno

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***** Hand History for Game 61219499088 ***** (poker stars)
$2.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, April 23, 04:45:47 ET 2011
Table Vincentina III (real money)
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: Boize Rolli ( $2.45 USD )
Seat 2: Fenster81 ( $6.96 USD )
Seat 3: ben-rhyno ( $4.50 USD )
Seat 4: koperman ( $4.72 USD )
Seat 5: krasic6969 ( $2.81 USD )
Seat 6: Hobo09 ( $1.33 USD )
Fenster81 posts small blind [$0.01 USD].
ben-rhyno posts big blind [$0.02 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ben-rhyno [Ac] [As]
koperman folds
krasic6969 folds
Hobo09 folds
Boize Rolli raises [$0.06 USD]
Fenster81 folds
ben-rhyno raises [$0.17 USD]
Boize Rolli calls [$0.13 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [Qs] [4d] [Ad]
ben-rhyno bets [$0.28 USD]
Boize Rolli calls [$0.28 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [10d]
ben-rhyno checks
Boize Rolli bets [$0.34 USD]
ben-rhyno: ????

Villain is a station who will call down to the river with all draws aswell as anything above 3rd pair. WWYD?
 
Pascal-lf

Pascal-lf

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Bet turn against that villain and any non-diamond river really.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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I put more money in everywhere.
 
bgomez89

bgomez89

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He re raised pre. Make it like .24 pre and bet turn
 
L

lennysmalls

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I would call his bet. See the river card and bet if there is not a one card flush or straight out there.
 
ben_rhyno

ben_rhyno

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Can we c/r shove this turn or is leading out better?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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Can we c/r shove this turn or is leading out better?
Leading out is WAY WAY WAY WAY WAY better. Its not close. This statement is a little worrisome, because if you can't figure out that leading is better, you're not thinking about how your opponent plays at all.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Care to elaborate?
Well, you opponent is described as a station who will call wide. So on a scare card like this, your opponent is almost certain to call with a wider range than he bets. If you're looking to get villain to bluff, the issue is he doesn't really have any hands that are bluffs. The only draws that didn't make anything with the Td are the 23/35 type hands.

So by check/raising, you allow villain to make a large pot with the hands he feels confident betting, and you keep the pot smallest against hands that you beat handily. This is the exact opposite of what we want.
 
ben_rhyno

ben_rhyno

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So if we bet out do we fold to a shove on this turn? I just can't see this kind op opponent shoving with less than a straight/flush
 
Pascal-lf

Pascal-lf

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You have to lead turn because he's a station and will call with lots of pairs+draws, pairs, then there's also lower sets, all of which you beat. You are beat only by flushes and straights, both of which you have outs against, and being a station he's likely weak passive; therefore he's only ever likely to shove a flush, and even then he's more likely to min raise which gives you implied odds to hit a set/bluff catch if he checks back a lot of blank rivers.

If he calls I bet river and fold to a raise. If he raises over a min raise on the turn I probably fold. But leading out is bad because you lose value against his wide shoving range, he doesn't bluff enough for you to make profit by turning your hand into a bluff catcher (which is a ridiculous idea anyway vs a station because you lose so much value and his betting range is much narrower than his calling range and is weighted only towards hands that beat you, i.e. flushes/straights) and you give a free card to him if he holds a diamond/turned gutshot straight draw.
 
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ClubArrow77

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Do you have a past history on how the player plays the nuts? Does he bet the pot? Anyway, you know he is a calling station so he could be playing a flush draw, straight draw, or even bottom pair. I would say since your beating every hand except a flush or straight, bet the turn and shove the river if you get a safe card.
 
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