$2 NLHE 6-max: Flop Straight. Awkward river.

Chips of Jen · Dec 21, 2017

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 22/14/2

Hi,
Think pre-flop, flop and turn are all pretty standard here. If I'm wrong please let me know!

The villain has been pretty tight throughout the game. (VPIP 22, PFR 14, AF2) I had 139 hands on him.
I put him on either sets or AsKs, I'm pretty sure other AK folds.

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG: $2.00 (100 bb)
MP: $4.14 (207 bb)
CO (Hero): $5.42 (271 bb)
BU: $4.10 (205 bb)
SB: $2.42 (121 bb)
BB: $2.48 (124 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO with 8♠ 9♠
1 fold, MP raises to $0.06, Hero calls $0.06, 3 players fold

Flop: ($0.15) T♠ J♣ 7♠ (2 players)
MP bets $0.07, Hero raises to $0.21, MP calls $0.14

Turn: ($0.57) 6♣ (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.38, MP calls $0.38

River: ($1.33) Q♦ (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.82, MP raises to $3.49 (all-in),

Blair29 · Dec 24, 2017

I'd expect AKs to play more aggressively on the flop, its a huge draw.

With all the draws out there Id be betting bigger on the flop and turn. I'd go for a raise of 35 on the flop and close to pot on the turn.

River bet is fine, you could get a call from hands like KQ QQ AA TT etc. Once you get raised you have a bluff catcher, and i'd say its a fold. You might be ahead of an over valued set maybe QQ, but that's about it.

thylmanoid · Dec 24, 2017

I wouldn't fold, he could have TT JJ QQ 66 and play the same way. If you get beat
it's a cooler in my opinion. you have a straight, I don't see how folding could be +EV

TheBigFinn · Dec 26, 2017

It is about combos. Given a 12% opening range which you just called What does he think about you and how big of a hand do he need to call a re-raise in a penny game. 12% in A5s+, 55+, AJo+, KJs+, KQ. 76s+ Your 89 of spades is a 40/60 dog against that range.

The flop hit you hard and you are now a 85/15 favorite with a wet flop. Villain's C-bet is undefining and I agree you should reraise, with the thought of getting it in. I think your flop raise is light, after you call, your re-raise is a 1/2 pot bet. What part of Villain's range does she call $0.14 to win $0.50. All of her trips, overpairs, AJ & AT for sure and likely big draws You fold out the Ax hands and all but the spade connectors. Villain still has a ~10% range

The turn doesn't hit either of you. Other than a sticky 66 and A6 of spades there are no 6s in her range (or yours). I would pot it. It makes it look like you don't want a call and are trying to force her to fold her draws (JMHO).

The turn brings in the INSIDE straight draw. Does Villain think you just called pre, re-raised on the flop, and bet the turn with AK? Your play looks weak and may lead Villain to think her trips and over pairs are good. AA, KK QQ, JJ, TT, 77 (unlikely AA and KK made it to the river) are pushes that you beat. After her call the push is a pot size bet. Even if all 16 AK combos made it to the river (unlikely IMHO) there are at least that many combos that that you beat. You need to call $2.67 to win $5.82.

Its a must call. EVEN if she has all 16 AK combos and only the JJ, TT, and 77,( 9 combos) 35/65 dog getting just about those odds.

Blair29 · Dec 26, 2017

TheBigFinn said:
It is about combos. Given a 12% opening range which you just called What does he think about you and how big of a hand do he need to call a re-raise in a penny game. 12% in A5s+, 55+, AJo+, KJs+, KQ. 76s+ Your 89 of spades is a 40/60 dog against that range.

The flop hit you hard and you are now a 85/15 favorite with a wet flop. Villain's C-bet is undefining and I agree you should reraise, with the thought of getting it in. I think your flop raise is light, after you call, your re-raise is a 1/2 pot bet. What part of Villain's range does she call $0.14 to win $0.50. All of her trips, overpairs, AJ & AT for sure and likely big draws You fold out the Ax hands and all but the spade connectors. Villain still has a ~10% range

The turn doesn't hit either of you. Other than a sticky 66 and A6 of spades there are no 6s in her range (or yours). I would pot it. It makes it look like you don't want a call and are trying to force her to fold her draws (JMHO).

The turn brings in the INSIDE straight draw. Does Villain think you just called pre, re-raised on the flop, and bet the turn with AK? Your play looks weak and may lead Villain to think her trips and over pairs are good. AA, KK QQ, JJ, TT, 77 (unlikely AA and KK made it to the river) are pushes that you beat. After her call the push is a pot size bet. Even if all 16 AK combos made it to the river (unlikely IMHO) there are at least that many combos that that you beat. You need to call $2.67 to win $5.82.

Its a must call. EVEN if she has all 16 AK combos and only the JJ, TT, and 77,( 9 combos) 35/65 dog getting just about those odds.

On such a wet flop I would'nt expect JJ and TT just to flat the raise. With the size of the raise and the flat, I think you can narrow the range to overpairs AJ AK, flush draws and maybe at a push AQ.

To me the flat on the turn just confirms that range, the bet size probably isn't going to deter villain if they think they can hit a K J or A on the river to win the pot. They could also have Hero on a draw, Axs, and KQ all make sense.

Just the way the hand played out there are only 2 hands that make sense for villain to shove river with IMO and thats QQ or AK, the other sets don't make sense and AA KK AQ AJ KQ are not typically shoving the river.

Once is a blue moon you might catch a busted flush draw. But I'd expect that to lead river if they were going to bluff at it.

Jacki Burkhart · Dec 26, 2017

Blair29 said:
With all the draws out there Id be betting bigger on the flop and turn. I'd go for a raise of 35 on the flop and close to pot on the turn.

We don’t need to be afraid of the draws. We hold the nuts with the spade redraw. If villain has bigger spades we’re already giving him the wrong price (he has 7 outs so roughly 14% and we bet more than 2/3.

Jacki Burkhart · Dec 26, 2017

You gotta call the river and if he happens to have exactly AsKs that’s just bad luck. You’re at the top of your distribution here and there’s missed draws plus he can be overvaluing some hands like sets. I agree Most combos of AK should fold before river so we’re worried about 1-2 combos at most. Surely he has 1-2 combos of missed spades plus 1-2 combos of overvalued sets.

braveslice · Dec 26, 2017

Draws give us value, surely bigger bets here are the way to go.

I don't understand the line of villain, no hand make sense. So this is hand he made a mistake and his range can be really wide or bluff?

Edit so maybe this is the answer:

missjacki said:
You gotta call the river and if he happens to have exactly AsKs that’s just bad luck. You’re at the top of your distribution here and there’s missed draws plus he can be overvaluing some hands like sets. I agree Most combos of AK should fold before river so we’re worried about 1-2 combos at most. Surely he has 1-2 combos of missed spades plus 1-2 combos of overvalued sets.

Jacki Burkhart · Dec 26, 2017

braveslice said:
Draws give us value, surely bigger bets here are the way to go.

I don't understand the line of villain, no hand make sense. So this is hand he made a mistake and his range can be really wide or bluff?

right yes we’ll get value from draws. So we should bet the max we think draws will call. We already bet 2/3 on turn. Maybe they’ll call 3/4 but I don’t envision bare flush draws calling a huge check raise on flop and a huge turn bet and we block the combo draws.

braveslice · Dec 26, 2017

missjacki said:
right yes we’ll get value from draws. So we should bet the max we think draws will call. We already bet 2/3 on turn. Maybe they’ll call 3/4 but I don’t envision bare flush draws calling a huge check raise on flop and a huge turn bet and we block the combo draws.

I agree with your reasoning on the turn actually, but more importantly OTF he will call naked str too, and over pair (most of the time even TP) this is 2NL after all. They might even call shove with FD here. But river is so much more important that I did not give this much thought, so likelihood I got it wrong is likely.

If hero raises flop to 0.25, bets turn tad over 2/3, river pot size is 1.8$. That does not sound big difference, but that is 11bb more profit made. Missing these spots one in 300 hands, makes your winrate to go down -3.5bb/100.

Blair knows a lot I feel, I would like to see one of his own hand reviewed to see where he is at =)

Blair29 · Dec 26, 2017

missjacki said:
right yes we’ll get value from draws. So we should bet the max we think draws will call. We already bet 2/3 on turn. Maybe they’ll call 3/4 but I don’t envision bare flush draws calling a huge check raise on flop and a huge turn bet and we block the combo draws.

I get what you are saying. But I've found that on flops like this you can get away with a much bigger check raise, because we can have a lot of draws.

Say villain has AJ on this flop. They almost have to call a bigger check raise because there are so many hands we can be semi bluffing with from this position. KQ AQ Q9 and all the flush draws.

Also most of the time people want to see at least a turn if they have an open ender or flush draw so you can add that little bit extra on, particularly on the flop.

And while we block certain spade combo's here we don't block the ones that might think they have quite a lot of equity. AKs,KQs QJs Ax's.

Jacki Burkhart · Dec 26, 2017

Blair29 said:
I get what you are saying. But I've found that on flops like this you can get away with a much bigger check raise, because we can have a lot of draws.

Say villain has AJ on this flop. They almost have to call a bigger check raise because there are so many hands we can be semi bluffing with from this position. KQ AQ Q9 and all the flush draws.

Also most of the time people want to see at least a turn if they have an open ender or flush draw so you can add that little bit extra on, particularly on the flop.

And while we block certain spade combo's here we don't block the ones that might think they have quite a lot of equity. AKs,KQs QJs Ax's.

We have the flop absolutely crushed and while yes, you MIGHT get action from 2 big spades if you check raise huge we want to play our hand in a way that is profitable vs villains whole range. He’s going to have other things besides KsQs etc and we don’t want to allow those hands to fold. You could probably raise a little bigger on flop which automatically makes the turn bet bigger but if we raise flop huge and bet turn huge we’re basically turning our hand into a bluff and only getting looked up by the strongest part of his range. I think it’s optimistic to think he’ll show up with sets and 2 big spades often enough to make a huge raise better than how hero played it. Yeah it’s golden if he has the few combos of 2 big spades. What about the rest of villains range? You wanna let 2 pair off the hook? Or baby flush draws?

Blair29 · Dec 26, 2017

missjacki said:
We have the flop absolutely crushed and while yes, you MIGHT get action from 2 big spades if you check raise huge we want to play our hand in a way that is profitable vs villains whole range. He’s going to have other things besides KsQs etc and we don’t want to allow those hands to fold. You could probably raise a little bigger on flop which automatically makes the turn bet bigger but if we raise flop huge and bet turn huge we’re basically turning our hand into a bluff and only getting looked up by the strongest part of his range. I think it’s optimistic to think he’ll show up with sets and 2 big spades often enough to make a huge raise better than how hero played it. Yeah it’s golden if he has the few combos of 2 big spades. What about the rest of villains range? You wanna let 2 pair off the hook? Or baby flush draws?

Ok your correct that villain wouldn't continue with the bottom part of his range which consist of small pocket pairs and maybe some 10's, but the likelyhood is they wouldn't continue when faced with any raise.

On a dry flop if we raise huge we are only targeting the top of villains range and I completely agree thats a mistake. But with a flop as wet as this it actually expands the number of hands that can call us that have very little equity. All the draws can call plus hands like AA KK QQ KJ QJ AJ J9 J8 Even AT or KT AK and AQ may well look us up simply because we can have all the draws as well. We don't limit our range to two pair + by check raising big like we would on a dry flop.

There are also a ton of bad cards that can come on the turn that kills our action when they don't have the draws, so the flop might well be our only street for value.

The turn bet doesn't have to be huge. In this case I'd have around 85c in the pot, Id probably go for a bet around 60c. And with the turn being a relative brick I wouldn't expect any of the over pairs or JX combos to fold and you might even get the 10X hands to continue.

TheBigFinn · Dec 27, 2017

Blair29 said:
On such a wet flop I would'nt expect JJ and TT just to flat the raise. With the size of the raise and the flat, I think you can narrow the range to overpairs AJ AK, flush draws and maybe at a push AQ.

To me the flat on the turn just confirms that range, the bet size probably isn't going to deter villain if they think they can hit a K J or A on the river to win the pot. They could also have Hero on a draw, Axs, and KQ all make sense.

Just the way the hand played out there are only 2 hands that make sense for villain to shove river with IMO and thats QQ or AK, the other sets don't make sense and AA KK AQ AJ KQ are not typically shoving the river.

Once is a blue moon you might catch a busted flush draw. But I'd expect that to lead river if they were going to bluff at it.

You have good point about the JJ and TT, Do you really think all of the 16 possible AK combos get to the river? There are 3 combos of QQ. Hero is calling $2.67 to win $5,82 so Villain would need 9 or more of the 16 for the call to be unprofitable. In general I call ever time an inside straight draw comes in on the river when I have been betting,

Blair29 · Dec 28, 2017

TheBigFinn said:
You have good point about the JJ and TT, Do you really think all of the 16 possible AK combos get to the river? There are 3 combos of QQ. Hero is calling $2.67 to win $5,82 so Villain would need 9 or more of the 16 for the call to be unprofitable. In general I call ever time an inside straight draw comes in on the river when I have been betting,

At higher stakes not all 16., but at 2nl it wouldn't surprise me. A lot of the player pool aren't thinking about the reverse implied odds of hitting the Qs or hitting TP, they just see 10 outs.

And a lot of the time people do just get sticky with AK, especially if they think hero is on a draw. If the river was a complete blank here I wouldn't be shocked to see villain call off with A high at 2nl.

Papier24 · Dec 28, 2017

I think the only combination that beats you is exactly AK of spades. Maaaybe AK of clubs since you're really deep and he was just gambling a bit.
You have played 139 hands with villain and his stats show that he's not a huge fish. I'm pretty sure that this player is cabaple of folding every other AK combination besides AK of spades and AK of clubs or did you see him calling with gutshots before ?
Don't think he raises preflop with K9s. I don't think you can completly rule out every other AK combination against a 2NL player but it's still not very likely that all 16 AK combinations got to the river.

So there are just two reasonable hand combinations that beat you and some other possible but not really likely hand combinations. And 89s is exactly the best hand you can have in this situation if you don't call K9s preflop. You would have 3betted AK preflop that's why you will probably never have a better hand in this situation. It would be absolutely insane to fold a straight in this situation even though you will probably loose against AK a small fraction of the time.

Chips of Jen · Dec 29, 2017

Hi, cheers for all the feedback.

I did call and it was AK but as you all mentioned it was a call 100% and we beat most of his range.

Was probs a little bit tilted when I posted but thanks for the feedback!

$2 NLHE 6-max: Flop Straight. Awkward river.

Chips of Jen

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Blair29

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thylmanoid

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TheBigFinn

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Blair29

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Jacki Burkhart

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braveslice

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Blair29

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Jacki Burkhart

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Blair29

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TheBigFinn

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Blair29

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Papier24

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