$2 NLHE 6-max: Facing a Shove w/ Middle Set on a Monotone Flop!

Phoenix2223

Phoenix2223

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Hey Everyone,

Villain stats: Hands 61 ; VPIP/PFR 23/16 ;

I really didn´t understand why that Cbet Size so small. My plan is to Raise/Fold, because I think he may calling my Raise w/ a big Overpair(AA,KK) w/ a Heart, OESD, Nuts Flush Draw, etc...but I think Villain 3B only leave him w/ Flush or maybe Top Set.
Do you think my though process was correct?
What would you do in this spot?Raise/Fold, Call this Cbet or Raise/Call?


pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $2.23 (112 bb)
MP: $1.97 (99 bb)
CO: $2.00 (100 bb)
BU (Hero): $3.86 (193 bb)
SB: $2.74 (137 bb)
BB: $2.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with 6 6
UTG raises to $0.06, MP calls $0.06, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.06, 2 players fold

Flop: ($0.21) 8 4 6 (3 players)
UTG bets $0.06, MP calls $0.06, Hero raises to $0.44, UTG raises to $2.17 (all-in), MP folds, BU (Hero) folds
 
TenJack

TenJack

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Why are we raising the flop? If we raise flop, villain is going to have a hard time calling with worse. He has to fold his top pairs, his overpairs w/o a heart, and his 2 pair combos maybe. He certainly can't raise without at least 88 as a bluff.

You are getting decent odds to draw to a boat. (Yeah seems weird to be drawing with a set, but, it happens.) I think we need to flat here and look for an 8, 4 or 6 on the turn. Obviously fold any heart.

As played this is an easy fold.
 
Hujiko

Hujiko

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Agree with TJ
It is a multi-way pot so give them some respect raising and calling on a monotone board. Would just call and see how the play develops.

You raise and UTG re-raises all-in in a multi way pot would put UTG on either a completed flush a set of 8's or perhaps some hand with the A of hearts in it e.g. AA. Stats of UTG do not show that hes overly aggressive pre-flop so fold on his all in.
 
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cs_rlewis

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This is NL2 he could be doing this with overpairs with a H.
It's tough on the flop whether to call or raise.
As played I am not folding to villains shove.
 
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braveslice

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This is NL2 he could be doing this with overpairs with a H.
It's tough on the flop whether to call or raise.
As played I am not folding to villains shove.

+1

About calling river, against AhKh we have 34.5%, we call 1.73 to win 4.58 -> 38%. So vs made flush we are almost getting right odds, against 88 we are dogs obviously but that is 3 combos against and ~3 combos for us 44, there is no way he has not something weird + inferior made hands + draw hands + made hands with good draw that flip this to gii easy case.
 
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micromoi

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it's a call to me u r dominated by 88 there other than that u r in pretty good shape even againts a maid flush wich i doubt here u r in a decent shape with 32%. in the micros i see draws have been played like that all the time he could hold an A or a K of heart and go crazy an over pair will do that too for me it's a call u will be more often than that crushing his range
 
TenJack

TenJack

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This is NL2 he could be doing this with overpairs with a H.
It's tough on the flop whether to call or raise.
As played I am not folding to villains shove.


I guess we can call this off based on the odds, but my main point is that raising the flop is just bad.

Like Huj said, multi-way you need to give more respect to leads, even smallish ones. They usually are going to be a lot stronger. We should also consider board texture. We aren't going for value, but we aren't bluffing either... so it is better to just flat with the god-send odds.

Even if you think the flop bet is just his weak attempt at a c-bet multi-way, you shouldn't raise because you make the entire hand into a guessing game for turn and river, and expose yourself to a reraise/jam and then you really get burned.
 
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