$2 NLHE 6-max: Dravy board pairs OTT with semi nuts - bet for value?

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braveslice

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Turn action?


Reason to bet: 1. To get stacks in OTR 2. He might still find a call with a draw 3. He might find a call with a made hand assuming hero is drawing and if draw do not complete.

Reasons to check: 1. After calling raise, hero checks turn, villain will call almost any made hand on the river, but will fold a lot of them if betted to 2. Open ender is mostly fold if we bet turn, but if completed might go for stacks. 3. If he has str, after we check he goes for stack on the river.

In my book this is almost even, we can both check or bet, profit is about the same without reads and notes from villain. Can you find a turn action that is superior?


PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 15.81, PFR: 11.63, 3Bet Preflop: 3.49, hands: 219)
SB: 40 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 4)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 26.32, PFR: 24.56, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 60)
UTG: 158.5 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
MP: 116.5 BB
Hero (CO): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 9

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 9 8 J
MP bets 5 BB, Hero raises to 19 BB, MP calls 14 BB

Turn: (45.5 BB, 2 players) 8
MP checks, Hero drinks beer

Ps. Happy 2018!
 
K

kozong

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we have approx 80bb & 45bb pot on turn
by betting 15-19bb on turn, its going to be easier to get it in on river i think

how much would you bet on river after checking turn?
ps. :beer:
 
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braveslice

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we have approx 80bb & 45bb pot on turn
by betting 15-19bb on turn, its going to be easier to get it in on river i think

how much would you bet on river after checking turn?
ps. :beer:

Eh saying like that, it sounds obvious solution to the problem, betting small we get the goods from both worlds. Thx.

If check, I don't think we can over bet, so around 30bb, total pot on the river if called about 100bb, so leaving about 50bb behind. https://www.cardschat.com/editpost.php?do=editpost&p=4065427
 
widron2s

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MP shows quads. Hero shows full house lol.
 
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braveslice

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we have approx 80bb & 45bb pot on turn
by betting 15-19bb on turn, its going to be easier to get it in on river i think
I finally did it!

Newb formula to decide turn bet sizing to have pot size bet left on the river, easy enough to do ‘instantly’ in real time:

(effstacksize-turnpotsize)/3 = turnbetsize

Simple eh?!?! Mind you that effstacksize and turnpotsize is seen instantly on the table, not so in most hand histories.

Hand in question example:
turnpotsize=45.5
effstaksize= 78
(78-45.5)/3 = 32.5/3 = 10.8

So if we bet turn 10.8, river pot size is 67.1, we have 67.2 left.

And in real time calculations:
turnpotsize=45
effstaksize= 80
(80-45)/3 = 35/3 = 11 + some extra = 12

Rivet pot size = 69.5, we have 66 behind.

:elefant::tee:

Going to google the same answer now =) More fun doing it cold.
 
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braveslice

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(effstacksize-turnpotsize)/3 = turnbetsize

Going to google the same answer now =) More fun doing it cold.


Nope. I think the chance that poker saw a new formula is over 50% - not saying this in not made before, just that it’s not in general knowledge. Only very much inferior formulas going wild, mostly containing stuff that makes ordinary calculator to cry.
 
JacksonBrown

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I finally did it! :pcguru:
Newb formula to decide turn bet sizing to have pot size bet left on the river, easy enough to do ‘instantly’ in real time:
(effstacksize-turnpotsize)/3 = turnbetsize :


:stoned:
Simple eh?!?! Mind you that effstacksize and turnpotsize is seen instantly on the table, not so in most hand histories.


:withstupi
Hand in question example:
turnpotsize=45.5
effstaksize= 78
(78-45.5)/3 = 32.5/3 = 10.8
:stupido2: So if we bet turn 10.8, river pot size is 67.1, we have 67.2 left.

And in real time calculations:
turnpotsize=45 effstaksize= 80
(80-45)/3 = 35/3 = 11 + some extra = 12 :bird:




:puke:Rivet pot size = 69.5, we have 66 behind.


Going to google the same answer now=) More fun doing it cold.:mad:
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Try it yourself, how to implement your rule in this case and see if you have pot size bet left? After you fail on that you can read and learn the first line in quoted post to see how to solve with money invested pre. Same rule you touted modified to work in practice.

“eff_starting_stack=100.4; presize=19.2; potsize_needed_OTT=(100.4-19.2) /3 = 27”

And dividing by ten is my own formula, and as long as it works I don’t care other rules as thepracticality of it, is quite unique. Mind you that /10-bet rule is one-day old, so it might turn out that it won’t work in every case. If it works though, you should be saying how marvelous it is, because it’s close of brilliancy, imo of course =)
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:icon_king :icon_joke
Don't pay any attention to this if you want to set up for a psb otr then your goal should be to get villain to put in 1/3 of his stack by the turn.
1/3 of your stack+1/3 of villains stack=2/3 of a stack. Which is a psb otr.
:adore::adore::adore::adore::adore::adore: :adore::adore::adore::adore: :adore::adore::adore::adore: :adore::adore::adore: :adore: :adore: :adore: :adore:================================================================
 
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braveslice

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Well you can see the dates, you red my answer in this topic before answering on other topic.

My post was 12th January 2018, your was 17th January 2018, it would be really hard, even for me, ‘to steal’ your formula 5 days before you reveal it.

Anyways the 10/ formula is wrong, it gust gives right answers only now and then. Bye, I doubt we need to talk anymore.
 
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JacksonBrown

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:icon_king :icon_jokeOriginally Posted by :JacksonBrown
Don't pay any attention to this if you want to set up for a psb otr then your goal should be to get villain to put in 1/3 of his stack by the turn.
1/3 of your stack+1/3 of villains stack=2/3 of a stack. Which is a psb otr.


:adore::adore::adore::adore::adore::adore: :adore::adore::adore::adore: :adore::adore::adore::adore: :adore::adore::adore: :adore: :adore: :adore: :adore:=============================================================== =
 
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