$2 NLHE 6-max: Doubts when facing a 3Bet OOP w/ QQ

Phoenix2223

Phoenix2223

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pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $1.56 (78 bb)
MP (Hero): $2.09 (105 bb)
CO: $0.09 (5 bb)
BU: $2.70 (135 bb)(VPIP: 36, PFR: 16, Hands: 25)
SB: $2.00 (100 bb)
BB: $4.74 (237 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is MP with Q Q
UTG calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.10, 1 fold, BTN 3-bets to $0.24, 1 fold, BB calls $0.22, 1 fold, Hero ???

A little to no information about villain. I think his 3-bet Range is tight here given his tight PFR( TT+, AK, maybe AQ). I think call here OOP is not the best option, especially after BB calls.
Do you think my assumptions about his range is correct?
What would you do here? Call this 3Bet, 4Bet/ Fold or 4Bet/Call?
 
TenJack

TenJack

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His VPIP is 36 bro. Definatley not tight. I can flat queens all day here, he has a lot of stuff we beat. AQ, AJ, ATs, JJ, TT
 
Matt Vaughan

Matt Vaughan

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I think this hand shows a big over-reliance on HUD stats and a bit of a misunderstanding of sample size. We only have 25 hands. That's 2 and a half orbits.

How many times in 25 hands is villain likely to have seen pocket pairs? About twice. But there's HUGE variance in this and also in which pocket pairs it could have been. And who knows maybe he timed out and missed a few hands. Maybe he had aces one of those times and didn't get to 3bet them. WHO KNOWS.

Point is, we can't be folding a top 3 hand to just a 3bet from an opponent that we don't have a ton of information about. It's not about "trusting" or "not trusting" the numbers, it's about understanding how much weight we can place on them in informing our decision-making.
 
T

Tuan

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I think we have to 4 bet here because we want to protect our top range QQ+; Calling his 3bet is a safer route but we have to deal with BB smooth call as well. Going 3 ways to flop is not an ideal for QQ, so we must 4bet and plan to shove all in. You could use poker stove putting QQ vs BTN 3bet range (people 3bet differently at this level, so I don't have much information at this level). In fact I see people 3bet on BTN with 89s and 5bet shove all in after getting a 4bet...??? It's weird.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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36/16 looks like a bad loose/passive fish. They usually 3bet infrequently. Great spot to call, take a look at the flop, and proceed with caution.

Also, you have what is called “relative position” in a multiway pot. You act last after everyone checks to the preflop raiser.
 
John A

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I think this hand shows a big over-reliance on HUD stats and a bit of a misunderstanding of sample size. We only have 25 hands. That's 2 and a half orbits.

How many times in 25 hands is villain likely to have seen pocket pairs? About twice. But there's HUGE variance in this and also in which pocket pairs it could have been. And who knows maybe he timed out and missed a few hands. Maybe he had aces one of those times and didn't get to 3bet them. WHO KNOWS.

Point is, we can't be folding a top 3 hand to just a 3bet from an opponent that we don't have a ton of information about. It's not about "trusting" or "not trusting" the numbers, it's about understanding how much weight we can place on them in informing our decision-making.

+1, but it's not an over reliance, I'd call it more a misunderstanding of how to apply HUD stats. I hear people say they understand variance, but really don't. Agree with what you're saying overall though. I see this ALL the time when I sweat players or used to coach. I always ask a player why they made the play they did, and then I'll get some main reasoning that revolves around someone's turn raise stat, and I'm like, "you only have 400 hands on your opponent. You do realize you'd probably need at least 50k+ hands to start to consider that as useful info?" :)

:call2:
 
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Gabe16

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It’s only 25 hands in. I’d go to a default btn 3B range overall, don’t call. 4B/shove. We block no AK. Villain should certainly 3B some weaker pp, you think TT meekly flats btn here? We do great against a calling range. And well enough equity wise vs a 5b/jam.

I saw you post about AK as well. Don’t sweat these monster hand spots where equity runs a bit closer vs ranges. To win at poker we have two ways. Over realising our equity and denying villains equity.

Any time you 4B here and villain folds a hand like KQs that can and should 3B you win, denying that hands large chunk of equity vs your range is great, anytime he calls/shoves with JJ/TT great, you fully realise yours. Any time he folds AK (players can do this) because he thinks players only 4B AA/KK then it’s amazing for you.

Be the aggressor, use your value correctly, a large chunk of the time you gii here vs jj or AK.

Also, we should bluff here from time to time.
 
Ahoy

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I think this hand shows a big over-reliance on HUD stats and a bit of a misunderstanding of sample size. We only have 25 hands. That's 2 and a half orbits.

How many times in 25 hands is villain likely to have seen pocket pairs? About twice. But there's HUGE variance in this and also in which pocket pairs it could have been. And who knows maybe he timed out and missed a few hands. Maybe he had aces one of those times and didn't get to 3bet them. WHO KNOWS.

Point is, we can't be folding a top 3 hand to just a 3bet from an opponent that we don't have a ton of information about. It's not about "trusting" or "not trusting" the numbers, it's about understanding how much weight we can place on them in informing our decision-making.


THIS is the best advice you could have received here.

This is never a fold. You can call comfortably. Against a spewy retard you can even 4bet for value but calling is fine. That being said, I used to 4bet QQ agianst some opponents in the past but I think it folds out a lot of their bad hands (they sometimes 3bet trash and then overvalue it if they pick up some equity).
 
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