$2 NLHE 6-max: Donking turn w TPGK

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braveslice

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Q1: Is this play any good?
Q2: If he raises?

Stat vise villain seem to be pure tag. Only note raise limpers 87o.

His flop AFq=5/6, turn Afq=1/3, river AFq=0/1, total AF=6. Open button 6/15.
I know I should be 3betting, but the guide I follow says call, so I call.
I hardly ever donk with anything else than nuts, so no idea at all if this made me donk-fish. After 15 minutes of thinking I don’t think the play was super bad at least. If he checks I don’t like it, if he bets I don’t think I can raise? So I need to call, then if he 3barrels life sucks. Maybe I could raise flop though.


Board pairing did not change anything imo, but I’m not sure if he agrees.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 20.27, PFR: 17.57, 3Bet Preflop: 6.45, hands: 76)
Hero (SB): 138 BB
BB: 111.5 BB
UTG: 70.5 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 67)
MP: 174.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
CO: 116.5 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K Q

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, fold

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 4 9 Q
Hero checks, BTN bets 3.5 BB, Hero calls 3.5 BB

Turn: (13 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero bets 8.5 BB
 
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Rational Madman

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He only calls you there with same as you, QA or the 4... Think about it...

Bad raise amount. Stick to maximum of 4BB if you really want to raise there, he is only calling you or reraising you with better here and you will have committed to the pot.

He will fold Q with worse kicker here, I'm quite sure. Bad sized bet.
 
Alucard

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Bad raise amount. Stick to maximum of 4BB if you really want to raise there, he is only calling you or reraising you with better here and you will have committed to the pot.

He will fold Q with worse kicker here, I'm quite sure. Bad sized bet.

Sizes are fine imo. You are talking scared money here
And I railed your session today. Some of your bets, raise amounts make no sense.
You are either not gaining he maximum value or just giving too good of a price for the V to call.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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I hardly ever donk with anything else than nuts, so no idea at all if this made me donk-fish. After 15 minutes of thinking I don’t think the play was super bad at least. If he checks I don’t like it, if he bets I don’t think I can raise? So I need to call, then if he 3barrels life sucks. Maybe I could raise flop though.

You probably have the best hand on the flop. There is ~30% that an overcard and/or diamond comes on the turn, and ~60% by the river. There is no particular reason to think the villain has diamonds, but there are a lot of overcards in his range. I'd raise the flop for both value and protection.

As played, I think the turn is fine. Generally, leading turns and rivers is much less problematic than donking flops. Given his flop bet stats, his most likely hand here is less than a pair. He likely c-bets with any hand on the flop.

So he probably folds the turn, and that should be OK with you. You got one street of value from a top pair hand and shut down any threats on the river. Your hand is not so strong that you are trying to keep him around so that you can extract three streets of value.

If he raises the turn, or bets the river, you are in a sticky spot.
 
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braveslice

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Stick to maximum of 4BB if you really want to raise there, he is only calling you or reraising you with better here and you will have committed to the pot.

If we give villain a range QTso, he has 15%, by betting 4bb we give him odds 19%, so essentially making 4% profit from 4bb -> profit 0.04bb that is too small risk to reward ratio for betting imo. Better check in that case. Also should be noted to other cases that by having Q diamond we block some nasty stuff. If we have KsQh for example his equity raises to 21.49% making 4bb sizing a somewhat clear mistake. Good general rule is not to bet under half pot ever but river, and of course multiple exceptions exist to this rule.
we have a good bluff catcher hands, why turn it into a bluff

Good point I don't have an answer to, that is why I hope you guys tell me. During the hand I assumed he won't be doing too much mistakes (except I was quite sure thinking he will do CB mistake) and wanted to protect instead.

I'd raise the flop for both value and protection.
I’m starting to like this idea the best. I was ok him to super hyper insta fold, I gave him also 100% CB combined to 50% range, but this donking is new to me. I’m happy that as played it wasn’t too fish like =) So I continue to find places where to donk, I hate donks so I would love to learn to do them too.

Btw microgrinder poker school made an analysis that 70% of turn raises are strong made hands, 20% pure bluffs and 10% draws.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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we have a good bluff catcher hands, why turn it into a bluff

i like the idea of donking the flop better, bet bet evaluate on river

Good point I don't have an answer to, that is why I hope you guys tell me. During the hand I assumed he won't be doing too much mistakes (except I was quite sure thinking he will do CB mistake) and wanted to protect instead.

I don't understand when or how we turned our hand "into a bluff"?

Villain's c-bet is probably a bluff, since most hands in his range will not connect with any given flop. Stats indicate that the villain almost always c-bets, and we are happy to let him bet. If we bet the flop instead of waiting for the c-bet (donk), villain may fold.

We aren't bluffing the turn, we probably have the best hand. Villain's c-bet tells us nothing about his hand.

A bluff catcher is great against opponents who have a known tendency to bluff, when a good bluffing situation arises. On this turn we don't have any reason to believe that the villain tends to bluff later streets, and no scare cards have emerged on the board yet to create a good situation for bluffs.

We could wait for the river to see if a diamond or overcard appears, which would create a good situation for the villain to bluff. But:
- odds are that this will not happen
- if it does happen, the villain may not bet
- if the villain does bet, it may not be a bluff. I don't have a way to quantify it, but I suspect that if there is a bet by this villain on the river, it is more likely to be a value bet than a bluff.

I think checking the turn would make the hand more difficult to play.
 
froggeedogs

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actually I like your bet on the turn, gives the villain something to think about and may cool him if he does indeed have AQ. calling every street here myself unless diamond hits river, then would have to reevaluate.
 
Beanfacekilla

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Q1: Is this play any good?
Q2: If he raises?

Stat vise villain seem to be pure tag. Only note raise limpers 87o.

His flop AFq=5/6, turn Afq=1/3, river AFq=0/1, total AF=6. Open button 6/15.
I know I should be 3betting, but the guide I follow says call, so I call.
I hardly ever donk with anything else than nuts, so no idea at all if this made me donk-fish. After 15 minutes of thinking I don’t think the play was super bad at least. If he checks I don’t like it, if he bets I don’t think I can raise? So I need to call, then if he 3barrels life sucks. Maybe I could raise flop though.


Board pairing did not change anything imo, but I’m not sure if he agrees.

PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 20.27, PFR: 17.57, 3Bet Preflop: 6.45, Hands: 76)
Hero (SB): 138 BB
BB: 111.5 BB
UTG: 70.5 BB (VPIP: 18.18, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 67)
MP: 174.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
CO: 116.5 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K Q

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.5 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, fold

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 4 9 Q
Hero checks, BTN bets 3.5 BB, Hero calls 3.5 BB

Turn: (13 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero bets 8.5 BB


What range of hands do we think this guy is going to have OTB? Probably pretty wide.

K-Q blocks KK QQ, AQ, AK. I think this is a fine place to 3b here preflop. That being said, you flat. That's fine too. But realize, you are going HU, or possibly 3w if BB calls. You are going to be in the worst position possible, and you are going to miss the flop 2/3 of the time.


So, as played, if we donk this turn, we are giving this guy a chance to fold all of his bluffs, and continue and/or cage us with all his better hands. And if he just flats, we really will have no clue where we are in the hand. And what if he raises? What is our plan then?

I think donking the turn as played is pretty bad TBH. Like if he has a FD for example, we lay him about 2.6 to 1 odds to call, and get there, same with a hand like J-10. From his point of view, all he will have to do is bet a small river bet if he hits, and he makes calling turn donk profitable. And you probably pay off most times if he bets proper.

You also give him a chance to just put you to the test, and raise with FD or SD (I might do that if I were him), and possibly win with a draw two ways, get you to fold this turn, or get you to call, and then he hits river, and you call again.

So, if this guy is good, you are giving him an opportunity to put you right in the cage here. He can just fold all bluffs and trash, and continue and/or raise with better, and hands that have lots of equity, like SD/FD combos.


So yeah, I prob 3b pre, bet flop, and continue from there. His range is gonna be so weak anyway, we might just win pre. If he 4b pre, yeah we just fold. Whoops. If he flats, let's play poker. He misses flop 2/3 of the time as well.


Edit: Just call down. Let him bluff. Like for example, he checks back turn, we check third time river, and then he bets, we decide. I'm probably not folding. But if he just bet/bet/bet, I am gonna be uncomfortable. I think the whole hand is easier to play if we just 3b pre.
 
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AlexTheOwl

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So, as played, if we donk this turn, we are giving this guy a chance to fold all of his bluffs, and continue and/or cage us with all his better hands. And if he just flats, we really will have no clue where we are in the hand. And what if he raises? What is our plan then?

I think donking the turn as played is pretty bad TBH. Like if he has a FD for example, we lay him about 2.6 to 1 odds to call, and get there, same with a hand like J-10. From his point of view, all he will have to do is bet a small river bet if he hits, and he makes calling turn donk profitable. And you probably pay off most times if he bets proper.

After you check the turn, what's the plan for the rest of the hand? Do you call a turn bet? If villain checks the turn, what is the plan on the river?

I don't have confidence in my own answers to those questions, which is why I'd bet the turn and fold to a turn raise or river bet.
 
Beanfacekilla

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After you check the turn, what's the plan for the rest of the hand? Do you call a turn bet? If villain checks the turn, what is the plan on the river?

I don't have confidence in my own answers to those questions, which is why I'd bet the turn and fold to a turn raise or river bet.

Probably. But braveslice is in the game. Any reads on this V he is going to know.... The question we must ask ourselves is what does this V think we have? If we flat pre, C/C flop, and then check turn, what will he think we have? Probably a FD or J-10. Will he bet Q-10, Q-J, probably... will he bet A-Q, yes I think so. Will he bet a FD, maybe not, will he bet 8-8? Maybe not. Will he bet 10-10 or JJ, probably, maybe.....

I think given the fact we called pre, and we c/c flop, and check turn, it is very likely V will not know what we have, and may think we are drawing, and may value own himself. I feel like we are beating enough hands in his range, so yeah I prob call turn as well if he bets.

Edit: like this guy may even double 9x here. I think as played checking turn is better.

Will he bet bluffs? Like total air? Braveslice would know the answer to that better than us.... he is in the game, we are just looking at HH on screen. Dynamics and reads play a role.


But I personally play the hand different. I 3b pre most likely here.
 
Beanfacekilla

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Forgot to add river plan. Like if he checks back turn, and a 2d hits river, and we check again, and then he bets? Yeah I may fold then. Depends on my real time read. And if 8 or K hits when V chdcks back turn, then we must decide as well. If it's a king that hits river, and V checked back turn, I prob bet/fold to a raise. If 8 hits I may check call, or C/f depending on real time reads.
 
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braveslice

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Before reading too in detail. Just to add that call line is my standard line. This guy imo, is not best to play against like that though. He is too tight, value orientated and disciplined (in 2NL that difference between vpip/pfr is animal like). Against 24/19 for example I would be happy to call.
 
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Beanfacekilla

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Before reading too in detail. Just to add that call line is my standard line. This guy imo, is not best to play against like that though. He is too tight, value orientated and disciplined (in 2NL that difference between vpip/pfr is animal like). Against 24/19 for example I would be happy to call.


Yeah sorry man I don't know very much about HUD stats, and how to use them.
 
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braveslice

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Haha the chances are in your favor 96% that you are totally correct Bean. If that donk would be good we all would have read about it somewhere, I think it's good indicator that the donk was bad. But maybe there are no better plays than call-line, given we did not 3bet.

Same reasons you gave not to donk, apply also to raise on the flop. Then again, if we think he is not putting money anymore with worse, maybe we can just raise to protect?

So against this player type the mistake was to call, not 3bet, preflop. Would you guys agree? The problem in 3betting is that his call range is going to dominate KQ.

Edit: During the hand I gave a though him raising draws, that's why Q2. But decided that he mostly will call with draws, also if he goes for it his draw probably has other components too than just pure draw making folding a bit less bad even with best hand at the moment, and to be completely honest I was a desperate because every play I though about was bad.
 
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Beanfacekilla

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Haha the chances are in your favor 96% that you are totally correct Bean. If that donk would be good we all would have read about it somewhere, I think it's good indicator that the donk was bad. But maybe there are no better plays than call-line, given we did not 3bet.

Same reasons you gave not to donk, apply also to raise on the flop. Then again, if we think he is not putting money anymore with worse, maybe we can just raise to protect?


We would be protecting from J-10 and FDs. He prob never folds a better hand. I don't know how I feel about raising for protection. If he is disciplined, and he is tight, I think we prob fold out hands we may otherwise get value from..... I mean his VPIP wouod suggest he is tight, but he is OTB, unopened pot, like the guy can probably still have a wide range right?

I think we just call as played? At least give him a chance to bluff or value own himself, and we kind of pot control too. But if this guy bets flop, bets turn, and bets river I don't see how we can call down all 3 streets.

But if he checks back turn, after we check call flop, we can eliminate a fair amount of hands that beat us. If we c/r flop, we bloat pot, and if called, how good do we really feel against this guy?


What do we do if we C/R flop, he flats, and a duece of clubs comes on the turn? We just bomb the turn, check? I def don't like the C/R idea... I'm curious to see what others say though. I wish Fig were in here, I want to know what he would say.
 
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Assuming the pre-flop action is as played, I still like c/r on the flop for protection and value. His c-bet means nothing, and we probably have the best hand, but it is vulnerable.

There are 9.5BB in the pot after his c-bet. I'd raise to 15BB. This makes it 11.5BB to him to call.
He's getting 24.5:11.5, ~2:1 pot odds, which are pretty good for him.

But we are laying the foundation for a big pot that he won't want to play without a powerful hand.
If he has nothing (which is most of the time), he folds. Sometimes he folds draws and queens. We fold to a re-raise.

If he continues, his most likely hands are a queen or a draw. If we estimate his range as {5d4d,6d5d,7d6d,8d7d,9d8d,Td9d,Kd9d,KdTd,AQ,AA,KK,QQ,99,44,JT,KQ,Q9,QT} then your equity going into the turn is 40%, with split pots 10% of the time. The pot is 36BB.

If the turn is a brick, which it usually is, I think he usually folds his remaining queens or draws to a 2/3 pot bet, 24 BB. You are behind in equity, but you have represented a monster on the flop, so your fold equity is considerable.

If the turn is not a brick, we check and fold to a bet. Your check-raise on the flop represented a strong hand. Even though hero checks this turn, any aggression here by villain represents a monster. He knows he is leaving himself vulnerable to another c/r.

River:
If he calls a turn bet, he's probably stronger than a draw or a queen. I c/f the river. I don't think he bluffs much here after your c/r on the flop and bet on the turn, you look too strong.

If the turn went check-check, I bet 2/3 pot, 24BB, if the river card is benign. C/f if the river card is scarey. We are vulnerable to a bluff here if the river is scarey, unfortunately.

Most of the time he folds the flop, and we profit 9.5BB with our TPGK hand.
If he doesn't fold the flop, most of the time we bet the turn and he folds, and we profit 18BB.
Occasionally we profit 18BB at the river against stubborn weaker queens and draws.
If he wins, the post-flop action has cost us 39BB. That seems like a lot to invest in TPGK, but I think the risk/reward is justifiable.
 
atlantafalcons0

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Q1: It doesn't make sense to donk bet. If that was the plan you might as well raise the bet on the flop instead of call.

Q2: Pretty much a moot point since considering the line you started taking, the logical next move would be for you to check call the turn similar to the flop.


Next time either 3bet or fold preflop. If you do call, however, check calling each street isn't a bad idea to control the size of the pot and keep it small.
 
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Taking it through flopzilla:

Assigned ~25% open range because this is a 6max button open.
this is: AA-22,AKo-A9o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo-J9o,T9o,AKs-A4s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s

at this point, flopzilla gives you 50% equity on their range.
After the flop, i think he will c-bet TP+/TT-JJ/flush draw/OSED/any combo draws.
this leaves us with:
AA-99,44,AQo,KQo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AQs,KQs,QJs-Q9s,JTs,AdKd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad6d,Ad5d,KdJd,KdTd,8d7d,7d6d,6d5d

You have 57% equity and there is a 63% chance you have the best hand.

After the turn you have about the same equity (down to 60).
I would say the donk is bad because the only way villain improved with the 4s, was if he hit quads or filled the boat, hands you were already losing to.
Villain is also only going to give you action with hands that dominate you. TPTK, overpairs, fullhouses and of course quads. You may get villain to fold their draws, but those are the hands you want to keep in.
Ask yourself, is he going to call this bet, and a river bet with with an unimproved QJ or lower?

As you have the equity to call any reasonable bet, id call and asses the river.
 
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Assigned ~25% open range because this is a 6max button open.

Small sample, but villain has opened from the button 6/15 times. Presumably they were raises most of the time. 25% seems conservative.


After the flop, i think he will c-bet TP+/TT-JJ/flush draw/OSED/any combo draws.

Small sample, villain has bet flop 5/6 times. His c-bet range heads-up is likely to be any two cards that made it to the flop.

I would say the donk is bad because the only way villain improved with the 4s, was if he hit quads or filled the boat, hands you were already losing to.
Villain is also only going to give you action with hands that dominate you. TPTK, overpairs, fullhouses and of course quads. You may get villain to fold their draws, but those are the hands you want to keep in.

Lots of queens and draws in his range. If you want to profit from being ahead of his draws, now is the time. On the river they will be either busted or beating you. You don't mind if the draws call, but you want to charge them.

You could hope that the draws bust and then hope that he bets the busted draw, but there's a lot of "hoping" in that plan.

Ask yourself, is he going to call this bet, and a river bet with with an unimproved QJ or lower?

Why is that the question? If villain is going to call at all with an unimproved QJ or lower, the turn is a fine time for him to do so. If he folds here, or calls here and folds on the river, hero got max value for his hand.
 
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