$2 NLHE 6-max: Correct idea not to bet OTR 2P?

B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
Q: Correct idea check/call river?


Reason not bot bet a) All draws missed he might bluff b) If he had A when all draws missed, hero check, he mostly will bet c) value owning all but A-good kicker without 2P



PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 101 BB (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, hands: 14)
SB: 110 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 39)
BB: 106.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
UTG: 159 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
Hero (MP): 100 BB
CO: 108.5 BB (VPIP: 17.74, PFR: 17.74, 3Bet Preflop: 13.04, Hands: 65)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7 8

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 9 8 7
Hero bets 6 BB, BTN calls 6 BB

Turn: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero bets 14.5 BB, BTN calls 14.5 BB

River: (48.5 BB, 2 players) A
Hero checks,
 
K

kozong

Legend
Bronze Level
Joined
Jul 7, 2013
Total posts
1,442
Awards
8
Chips
2
i like check calling too, but

if he had TJ & value bluffing assuming that we know hes bluffing

how big are we calling?
 
Alucard

Alucard

Santoryu
Silver Level
Joined
May 7, 2017
Total posts
3,235
Chips
0
yeah check calling is the best if you think about it all.

But I feel like pot controlling on turn & value betting on river.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Chips
0
As long as you're checking because you want all the missed draws to bluff, then this is fine.

Pot control with 2 pair never enters my mind.
 
K

KFlint

Rock Star
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 14, 2016
Total posts
180
Chips
0
I like the line too, I wouldn't check turn on this board.
 
4

4TWeen

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Oct 3, 2017
Total posts
9
Chips
0
I see both lines +EV, you can mix them from time to time. Checking allows his missed draws to bet, and betting allows his Ax of diamonds or other pairs to call.
But I would never pot control with double pair on the turn.
 
R

Rational Madman

Legend
Platinum Level
Joined
Jan 11, 2017
Total posts
2,478
Chips
0
Before I begin, in future please post your own stats (if your hud doesn't offer this than very bad hud). Knowing your own table image is very important and valuable in deciding what to do as you can combine other's interpretation of you with their actions.

I totally disagree to others on this. Checking was a very very -Ev move here. Unless you've played a loose game until that point, he's going to sense significant strength in your hand and play to it if he's hit the ace by just checking as he figures you'd only call with better.

What's his AF like? His AF is the most valuable stat here as well as his Fcbet (rate of foldign to cbets on the flop) you need AF and fcbet to truly pin his hand strength here in my opinion. Only if he is known for high Af would I check the river here.
 
B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
Right thx.

So actually it seems that betting is as valid as checking. (Imo from comments)

Too few hands to know (too few hands for AF and so on). His large VPIP / PFR diffence is hinting to more passive style, even though 3bet is high it can be just too little data. So betting is a bit better? Like Madman says, he will not always bet A and A is in his range, mostly weak aces.

It's hard to say what other thinks about me in zoom pool, it might be the case that they only saw me when I have the goods so data suggest I'm more to the lag side, sometimes they see me as nit.

He had JJ.
 
Last edited:
A

AlexTheOwl

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 22, 2017
Total posts
860
Chips
0
Q: Correct idea check/call river?


Reason not bot bet a) All draws missed he might bluff b) If he had A when all draws missed, hero check, he mostly will bet c) value owning all but A-good kicker without 2P

- If you bet here, what is he calling with?

My estimate is {Adxd,77-99,98,T9,Q9,K9,A9,TJ,56}. I think the only aces that have made it this far are A9 and Adxd.
Your equity against that range is 48%. You are slightly behind if he calls.
Everything else he folds.

- If you check here, what does he bet with?

Busted draws?
He doesn't have many. Unless he has something better than just a straight draw or just a flush draw, he should have folded the turn. But we know people don't always do what they should. Also he may have continued with combo draws. or a draw and a pair.

With the busted draws that he does have, how often does he bet?
Villain has seen you bet two streets now, so it's not an ideal spot for him to bluff with a busted draw. You look like you have a strong hand.

I think his betting range is only slightly wider than his calling range here.


You are probably ahead of your opponent on the river. But he will probably only bet or call with his good hands. If he does bet or call, it's a coin flip.

As a practical matter, you aren't going to do equity calculations at the table. But ideally you should have a sense that your odds are about 50/50 if a bet and a call occur.

If he thinks you may be bluffing, maybe his calling range is wider than his betting range.
If he's prone to bluff when he shouldn't, maybe his betting range is wider than his calling range.
I don't think it makes much difference whether you bet or check.
 
B

braveslice

Pull-ups!
Silver Level
Joined
Dec 9, 2013
Total posts
1,988
Chips
0
Interesting, it kinda not even crossed to mind to check to pot control (maybe it did, and I used an excuse to turn this to check/call party because of that). Some kind of block in though process it seems, thx.

We can't give many monsters to his range given he only called, he would have raised more often than not with those.
 
B

bloodviper1s

Enthusiast
Silver Level
Joined
Oct 10, 2017
Total posts
26
Chips
0
Im going to go ahead and give my best break down using flopzilla.

Sample size is small and villain is IP on the button so im going with a rather wide range. But take out QQ+/AQs+/AKo assuming he will always 3bet those hands.
so preflop his range is looking like:
JJ-22,AQo-A8o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,AQs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s,54s
And you have ~40% equity against his range.

before any action on the flop, you have ~67% equity and a 90% chance you have the best hand right now.
however, after a 80%PSB you need him to fold ~44% of the time, but 60% of his range is top pair+, OESD, FD or different combo draws, very wet.

As played turn comes 3s. you have 65% equity and flopzilla says you have an 83% chance of having the best hand now.
However after another large bet, he will be calling pretty much the same hands, and continue with im going to say 30% of his draws.

At this river you have 68% equity. you lose to 10 combos of straits, 5 combos of sets and 20 combos of better 2 pair. check call is a fine play.

I would have suggested checking the turn. let him bluff a draw or 'value bet' his over pair and play the river from there.
 
Top