Nice hand!
Hi there freddydr87! Happy 2020! Let it come with prosperity, health and happiness!
Thank you very much for posting your hand.
You are very deep stacked, and unless you opened 88 for stealing, if I were in your shoes in a spot like that, I would be folding this 88 preflop. (sometimes, not always I will explain it).
The SB has a little bit more than 100 blinds and the player in the BB has 100 blinds.
Okay if I raise to get a steal or to get a call and see a flop to see if I hit my set or I don't.
But given stack sizes before the hand start, I would not call a 3bet here, just for the fact that for the times we hit it, we will never be paid enough for the player in the BB. (it has only 100 BB compared to us 200 BB).
Sometimes we are gonna Setmine our pocket eights and be dominated by a better Set or a Straight.
It would be a complete different picture if either SB having 200 BB or more, or the BB having 200 BB or more. If the situation is something close of it, I can think about making a Cold Call to a 3bet from the BB
The population will say it is an easy call versus BB's range. Because we open a lot from the Button for stealing pots preflop, and we use a range that varies from 30% range to 50% and sometimes a little bit more than that. And so the BB sometimes decides to 3bet light against the Button so, I assign it a wide range that could be 3betting here.
We open a wide range because we will have position over the SB and the BB and our
equity will realize much more from the Button than any other position. Just check your HUD and see
hands you have played by position and you will see that even when we are losing a ton from BB, SB, and even UTG and MP, we usually are positive EV in the Button.
It is a very good and tricky position. We should know if we are playing from the Button for value, for stealing, because we see recreational players ahed, etc.
Like I was saying, one of the villains out of position should have at least 150 BB behind in their stacks for our middle and low pair be profitable for a setmine.
Another case that is possible to call a setmine here( or not to setmine), is when we have a lot of information of the Villain out of position, and we know for sure that this hypothetical villain is a recreational player that we can outplay him postflop. When we have edge over the players we can try to play medium and low pairs in position and even cold call a cheap 3bet, which I believe it was the case.
I say a lot of times and I will repeat: there is no right and wrong about poker and I am never the owner of the true. My opinions seem a little radical sometimes, but I try to see many possible perspectives before saying "do this", "do that".
As played, you decided to call a 3bet, which is very good, for I believe you did it because you could outplay the BB's Villain postflop. Nice!
Villain makes a very polarized donkey, with a very high price (there are 19.5 blinds in the pot and BB donks for 10 blinds, something like 1/2 pot)
We love when recreational players elect to make a blocking polarized bet and cast us out of the pot, but in this case, you have a pretty decent equity in this flop, although you will be beat a lot of times in many turns and rivers, even when you complete your set or when you complete your Straight Gutter.
We are assuming here that BB 3bet us with 30% range for example, which will have A3o-AKo, A2s-AKs (considering that he might not 3bet all of its ace suited combos all the time, also we believe he would be 3betting with more frequency AJs, AQs and AKs against a button opener, and the off suited combos too, AJo, AQo and AKo). Plus, K2s-KQs, Q8s+ J8s+ a bunch of one gap, and two gaps suited and off connectors etc.
We also believe he could be 3betting 99+ here some times and calling sometimes. So we assume Villain in the BB doesn't have many 88 in its range that could be 3betting preflop. TT+ I believe most of the population at 2 NLHE is 3betting versus the button with a very high frequency. (But we never know, sometimes they call for trapping)
Preflop with 88 we have nearly 64% equity against a 30% 3betting range from the BB, but of course it could be even wider than this.
Flop equity:
Against this flop we are almost smashing BB's range: Ts5d7h.
Hero in the button has 66% Equity and villain in the BB bets 1/2 pot, so we need to be right here only 50% of times for our call to be profitable in the long run, so it is an easy call, and from time to time we have to float here, because we have a pretty decent hand, a few turns could not be so good, and our opponent is a recreational player who will call mostly with weaker hands in a spot like it.
The Turn is also pretty good for our ranges, there is just a few possible combos that could be defeating BTN right now and again, BB's Villain polarizes its range again and double barrels for 20 blinds in a pot of nearly 40 blinds.
We know that when a recreational c-bet 3bet flop that high it has more bluffs than values in his/her range and...to be sincere we saw these lines a lot of times per day at 2 NLHE:
Line 1: c-bet 1/2 pot flop, c-bet 1/2 pot turn and either over c-bet river or shove river (with missing draws, AKo, AQo, AJo missing the flop/turn/river completely and
bluffing with ace high, with low pocket pairs that completely missed, and so on).
Line 2: c-bet 1/2 pot flop, over c-bet turn, shove river, (with missing draws, AKo, AQo, AJo etc, missing the flop/turn/river completely and bluffing with ace high, with low pocket pairs that also missed, etc). They follow more this line 2 when they are deep stacked +150 BB, but sometimes they try it having only 100 BB to leave many rivers
Given all of that, I would dare to say it is an easy call. If we check-raise here it will leave all of his bluffs behind, when her/his plan is to attack the river, no matter which card comes (most of times). Sometimes this recreational will show some strong broadway, such hads I quoted above that follow this line of donks flop and c-bet turn, so it has a lot of AKo, AQo, and other missing similar broadways, a lot of small pocket pairs that could be in a 3bet light range of a recreational player BB x BTN, etc, it never has a 7x in its range when it chekcs river, because if BB was bluffing a seven that it hits on the flop and then comes a trips in the river, the playes is most likely to go all-in (LOL).
If the BB checks, it never has a AJ for example, because the board is low, a recreational will bet all of his Jacks river in a spot like that: AJ, KJ, QJ, JT (of course he would be sending another one with two pair here), J9, J8, needless to say J7, etc.
The guy has just a little Full-Houses, because if it made a 3bet preflop, so it is possible TT, and if for any case Villain BB had a pocket five, it will never check behind to the button after making the pot grow so much.
The Check of the Hero in the Button is also fine, because it prevents some bluffs that the BB could have such missing AK, AQ, or a missing straight that could shove all in River and put Hero in the Button in heavy shoes.
Regards;
Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa