$2 NLHE 6-max: Betting too

PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 98.5 BB
BB: 141 BB
UTG: 108 BB
CO: 88 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 33)
Hero (BTN): 176.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has

fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: (10 BB, 3 players)
SB checks, CO bets 7 BB, Hero raises to 26 BB, fold, CO calls 19 BB

River: (62 BB, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero?

I feel like I'm over-betting in spots. I'm losing value and causing villians to fold hands with some SDV that I could get them to call with if I made the right bet.

My question to you is, how much would you bet here? I'll tell you what I bet after.

Much appreciated,
Patrick

His hand looks like a strong king of weak ace at this point. Flush draw isn't calling any bet. I feel like about half pot or maybe slightly under that would be fine.

Easy river shove. Your opponent only has a pot sized bet behind.

c9h13no3 said:

Easy river shove. Your opponent only has a pot sized bet behind.

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That shouldn't be the reason for shoving here. The odds don't change.

Id bet 1/3 cuz opponents range looks weak... if hes slow playing ak he will do the shoving for us and we will trap the trapper unless he has top set

ninoverm said:

That shouldn't be the reason for shoving here. The odds don't change.

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I agree it's a shove. Villain has less that a PSB left. There should really be nothing he'd call a 1/2 pot bet with that he won't call a shove.

WVHillbilly said:

I agree it's a shove. Villain has less that a PSB left. There should really be nothing he'd call a 1/2 pot bet with that he won't call a shove.

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A strong king? Would not call a shove I think, but could consider a 1/3-1/2 pot bet.

Aces2w1n said:

Id bet 1/3 cuz opponents range looks weak... if hes slow playing ak he will do the shoving for us and we will trap the trapper unless he has top set

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Well done. About 1/3rd to slightly less than half is the best sizing in a spot where your opponent has a weak Ax, Kx or maybe some other hand they might make a crying call with to a perceived missed draw.

Most girls agree... size is everything.

Its all player dependent in this spot. Since he has less than pot size bet left it changes the dynamic.

I think a shove here gets called maybe 30% of the time.
If he's a player who thinks you missed your draw he could call it off and his Ace and medium kicker will call.
If he has AQ, AJ, AT and any 2pair i think he calls you down.

If you think it's the right play, don't judge it on the outcome. I think shoving in this spot is okay. That's what I'd do most of the time.

stokedog4 said:

Its all player dependent in this spot. Since he has less than pot size bet left it changes the dynamic.

I think a shove here gets called maybe 30% of the time.
If he's a player who thinks you missed your draw he could call it off and his Ace and medium kicker will call.
If he has AQ, AJ, AT and any 2pair i think he calls you down.

If you think it's the right play, don't judge it on the outcome. I think shoving in this spot is okay. That's what I'd do most of the time.

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Really if we wanted to analyze this we'd put each of his opponents calling ranges on a bell curve chart listing out the likelihood of calls w/ different bet sizes. Just looking at what you said though, we can just take any of these ranges and reduce the sizing to 30bbs for example, and we need calls over 60% of the time to show higher profit. And in reality, with most of his range it's going to be called more like 75% of the time w/ closer to half size and under betting because of the pricing.

When your opponents range gets this weak, you need to isolate the bulk of his medium strength hands and ask what's the maximum value sizing I can get, and how much does that sizing differ from the bottom of his range. In this case, it doesn't very much. Where the top of his range sizing wise is static to a slightly less than pot sized shove. How much of that calling range fits with how the hand is played? Not very much.

I'm a huge advocate of maximizing value on shoves, over shoves, etc... where it makes sense. This really isn't one of those spots imho.

I shoved and he folded. I felt I should have bet 1/2 pot. I agree even a 1/3 pot would be good.

thylmanoid said:

I shoved and he folded. I felt I should have bet 1/2 pot. I agree even a 1/3 pot would be good.

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I think you're being results-oriented. He has to call a 1/3 pot bet 3 times more often then a shove for it to be as profitable. So yes, while I agree he calls more often if you bet small, I don't think it he calls that much more often. At 2nl he's calling with any ace and likely a lot of kings. Finding folds generally isn't a strong suit at this level.